Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,100 total articles
A BTG Pactual analysis concludes that the initial 2023 consumer debt renegotiation program launched under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva did not lead to greater access to credit for those who benefited. The finding, drawn from an assessment of the program's first iteration by BTG economists Tiago Berriel and Bruno Martins, may help explain why…
President Donald Trump expressed satisfaction with the federal response to a hantavirus outbreak aboard the Hondius cruise ship that resulted in three deaths. He said the virus is "not easy to spread" and that the United States was in "very good shape." Seventeen U.S. citizens from the vessel were airlifted to Nebraska for evaluation, with two pass…
The American Automobile Association expects a record 39.1 million Americans to drive over the Memorial Day holiday, even as average gasoline prices remain above $4.50 per gallon and at their highest seasonal level on record. Total travel across all modes is projected at 45 million between Thursday, May 21 and Monday, May 25, with driving accounting…
A BTG Pactual report concludes that the first phase of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's consumer debt renegotiation program did not translate into greater credit access for participating households. Economists Tiago Berriel and Bruno Martins link the lack of a consumption uptick to a process of financial adjustment among borrowers, a…
Hudson River Trading reported $6.4 billion in trading revenue for the first quarter, a 135% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to people familiar with the matter. The firm said this quarterly haul accounts for more than half of its total trading revenue for all of 2025, while profit and earnings metrics also rose sharply. Net t…
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius identifies three channels through which the 10-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz has so far produced only moderate damage to global growth: muted oil price response, demand reallocation that eased physical fuel shortages, and cushioning from fiscal policy, the AI-driven investment cycle, and generally su…
The head of the UK’s Prudential Regulation Authority warned that advanced generative AI models, including Anthropic's Mythos and ChatGPT 5.5 Instant, are likely to cause substantial disruption across financial services. Sam Woods said the models' enhanced capacity to detect system weaknesses, combined with the imperative for banks to patch swiftly …
Federal officials plan a temporary rollback of tariffs on imported beef, aiming to ease record-high retail prices. The administration will suspend the annual tariff-rate quota that raises duties after a set import volume, expand Small Business Administration lending to ranchers, and relax select livestock regulations and endangered species protecti…
The Peruvian government has authorized state oil company Petroperu to obtain private financing to address a liquidity shortfall. An emergency decree permits the Finance Ministry to assume contingent commitments of up to $2 billion, including $500 million for short-term needs, with arrangements to be channeled through a new Petroperu subsidiary and …
U.S. existing home sales rose 0.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, slightly below economist expectations of 4.05 million. The sales data reflect contracts closed in February and March, a period that saw the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate move from 5.98% to 6.38%. Mortgage rates later climbed further in earl…
Senegal's sovereign bonds fell for a third straight session after lawmakers approved legislation that could permit Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko to run in the 2029 presidential election. The move has intensified investor concern about the outlook for a planned debt restructuring, pushing bonds across maturities down and leaving some issues at multi-…
D/S Norden A/S is basing its full-year guidance on the working assumption that vessels currently detained in the Persian Gulf will remain there until the end of 2026. The company describes this as a planning scenario driven by limited visibility rather than a forecast of the most likely outcome, while highlighting stronger tanker earnings and a hig…
UK government bond yields rose and the pound weakened on Monday as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced growing unrest inside his party after substantial losses in last week’s local elections. Thirty-year gilt yields jumped nearly 10 basis points to 5.68%, while sterling fell about 0.1% versus both the dollar and the euro. The market reaction followed…
Citadel Securities warns that inflation has become the foremost market concern as investment tied to artificial intelligence fuels a sharp rise in capital spending. The firm highlights that easier financial conditions, stronger labor markets and higher short-term inflation expectations increase the risk that a recent oil price shock could broaden i…
Global investors made a pronounced return to emerging market assets in April, with portfolio flows swinging back to a net inflow of $58.3 billion after a $66.2 billion outflow in March that followed market turmoil linked to the Iran conflict. The recovery was dominated by fixed income, which attracted $51.9 billion in April, while equities posted s…
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the Trump administration is not planning to set up a new government agency to regulate advanced AI models. Officials are coordinating with private-sector companies to mitigate potential harms before public release, while consideration continues over whether to use an executive order …
Global equity markets have grown markedly top-heavy as the artificial intelligence boom elevates a small group of large firms. The effect is visible beyond the United States, with single companies in markets such as South Korea and Taiwan representing outsized shares of their benchmarks. While rising concentration has coincided with stronger averag…
Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismissed President Donald Trump’s quick rejection of Tehran’s reply to a U.S. plan to end the conflict, saying the country will act to protect its national interests whether through combat or diplomacy. Tehran’s response emphasized halting fighting on all fronts and seeking compensation for war-related damage while undersco…
Economists in Brazil have raised their projection for the benchmark Selic rate at the end of 2027 to 11.25% from a prior forecast of 11%, citing inflationary pressure driven by robust domestic demand and an energy shock linked to the Iran war. A weekly central bank survey released on Monday also shows analysts expect inflation to remain above the 3…
Two major Wall Street banks have revised their Federal Reserve rate-cut timelines, moving expected easing significantly later after rising core inflation tied to energy costs and a still-robust labor market reduced the near-term case for policy loosening. Goldman Sachs delayed its last two cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, while Bank of America…
A Pepperstone research note dated Monday assigns a 20% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer survives current party unrest, and two 40% outcomes that would likely lead to leadership change. The firm warns these outcomes carry direct downside risk for sterling and a persistently higher yield premium on 10-year Gilts versus G7 peers, while options …
The Bank of Israel is not rushing to use foreign exchange intervention to counter the shekel's rally, Deputy Governor Andrew Abir said, adding that the strong currency is helping to restrain inflation. While up to two interest rate cuts by next March are still expected, the central bank remains cautious given lingering geopolitical uncertainty and …
Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced legislation to enable full government ownership of British Steel's Scunthorpe plant after efforts to sell the Chinese-owned business were unsuccessful. Any transfer of ownership would require a public interest test weighing national security, critical infrastructure and economic support. The move follows the go…
Iran's oil minister told state television that the country's oil production stayed steady over a 40-day period of conflict and that exports continued successfully. He acknowledged challenges following a U.S. maritime blockade on Iranian ports and said pre-planned countermeasures are being implemented, while declining to specify those measures.
The European Commission is engaged in separate conversations with US artificial intelligence developers OpenAI and Anthropic. OpenAI has proactively offered to grant the Commission access to its new AI model, while the Commission has held multiple meetings with Anthropic but has not yet reached discussions about model access, a spokesperson said.
