Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
Citi reiterated a path of four 25 basis point increases in the Bank of Korea's policy rate across July 2026, October 2026, January 2027 and April 2027, taking the terminal rate to 3.5%. The bank warned the balance of risks favors more rapid tightening, including consecutive hikes in the second half of 2026 and a potential terminal rate up to 4.0%. …
Fitch Ratings has maintained China’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at A with a Stable Outlook. The rating reflects the country's large, diversified economy, key role in global trade and solid external finances, while noting medium-term fiscal pressures from high deficits, falling revenue, rising government debt and economy-wide leverage. Fitch pr…
European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir warned that the ECB's initial rate increase last week is only a first step and that further policy tightening may be required as elevated energy costs continue to spread through the euro zone economy. Writing in an opinion piece, Kazimir said the central bank must remain vigilant and ready to act, not…
Russia's foreign minister said Moscow remains committed to U.S. President Donald Trump's proposals for ending the war in Ukraine and is awaiting clarification from Trump's envoys on implementation. The Kremlin confirmed the envoys will return to Russia soon. Lavrov also criticized European offers to mediate, saying they rest on incorrect assumption…
The Bank of Portugal kept its 2026 GDP growth projection at 1.8% but revised the public finances and inflation outlooks in its quarterly bulletin. The central bank lowered its 2026 budget deficit forecast to 0.2% of GDP, raised the near-term EU-harmonised inflation forecast to 3.1% for this year, and flagged constraints from higher oil prices, elev…
French wine and spirits exporters said Monday that threats by the U.S. administration to impose steep tariffs on French wine and champagne are harmful to a sector that relies heavily on overseas sales. The warnings are linked to a 3% French digital tax on U.S. technology companies; the exporters group FEVS called for responsible behavior and balanc…
The Bank of Portugal held its 2026 economic growth projection at 1.8% and revised down its projected budget deficit for 2026 to 0.2% of GDP. The central bank flagged a likely upward effect on inflation from higher oil prices connected to the Middle East conflict, adjusted its EU-harmonised inflation forecast for this year to 3.1%, and laid out a pa…
China has welcomed the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran intended to end their conflict, urging that the agreement be signed on schedule. Foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, speaking at a routine press briefing, voiced Beijing's support for the deal and called on all parties to pursue a peaceful resolution through d…
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has tabled two competing income tax proposals for coalition negotiators: a roughly €10 billion package of moderate tax relief and a larger roughly €20 billion package. Both plans would shift some of the burden onto high earners by increasing the so-called rich tax and by raising the threshold for the 42% top r…
Kevin Warsh will deliver his first substantive remarks as Federal Reserve chair at a press conference following the June 16-17 policy meeting. Markets will be watching for how he describes inflation dynamics, the labor market and the risks from tariffs and higher oil prices, and whether his language limits or opens the door to future rate moves.
The recreational vehicle industry, concentrated in northern Indiana, has pulled back production as higher gasoline and diesel prices tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and stretched household budgets curb spring sales. Registrations and shipments have declined, prompting industry groups to trim full-year shipment forecasts while some manufacturer…
Financial markets enter a busy week with a tentative U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement reshaping investor expectations for inflation, oil and geopolitical risk. Policymakers around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, will deliver policy decisions that could be influenced by the deal. Market attention also falls on S…
Slovak central bank governor and European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir said the ECB has begun tackling inflation but must do more. Kazimir warned that energy costs, amplified by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, could keep upward pressure on prices and that second-round effects would appear without further monetary action. He described the re…
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she welcomed overnight reports of a U.S.-Iran agreement to end hostilities and potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling the preliminary pact good news if confirmed. ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel urged caution, saying the move will not deliver immediate …
Futures tied to the main U.S. stock indexes rose more than 1% on June 15 after a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran signaled an end to a three-month conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal left unresolved issues such as Iran's nuclear program and the Lebanon-Israel conflict. Oil prices plunged and traders …
Global markets reacted to an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, with U.S. stock futures climbing, oil prices retreating amid prospects for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, and gold extending gains as the dollar weakened. The pact, to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, leaves several details unclear and arrives ahead of a ke…
This week brings a cluster of events that could move markets: Kevin Warsh chairs his inaugural Federal Reserve meeting, the Group of Seven summit in France will be dominated by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine after a tentative Iran peace framework, and several central banks - including the Bank of Japan and Indonesia’s central bank - face …
India's wholesale price index rose 9.68% year-on-year in May, driven by a large increase in fuel and power costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The jump in producer-level inflation considerably outstrips retail inflation, but economists say the spike is not expected to prompt an immediate interest rate response. New producer price indic…
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she welcomed reports of a ceasefire agreement with Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while stressing that key elements of the situation - notably questions around uranium enrichment - are not yet settled. Her remarks came in a radio interview in which she said confirmati…
European equity futures rose sharply on Monday morning after U.S. and Iranian officials said they had agreed on a framework for a preliminary peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end a three-month conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude fell about 4%, lifting risk appetite and pushing futures tracking the STOXX 600, Germany's DAX …
Markets rallied on Monday after news of a planned Iran-U.S. halt to hostilities, lifting stocks and bonds as inflation fears linked to the conflict eased. The yen, however, remained near the key 160 per dollar threshold that triggered large-scale government currency support last month. With the Bank of Japan poised to raise rates to 1% and Deputy G…
U.S. President Donald Trump told the New York Post that he has demanded France remove its 3% digital services levy on American technology firms or face 100% tariffs on all French wines and champagnes entering the United States. The ultimatum, delivered directly to outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron, escalates a dispute that could affect wine…
Since the outbreak of the Iran war, institutional investors have increased allocations to Chinese government bonds not for higher yields but for their near-zero correlation with Western sovereign markets. While benchmark yields in the U.S., U.K., Europe and Japan rose sharply since March, yields on comparable Chinese government bonds fell, promptin…
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Sunday defended the central bank’s decision to reduce its holdings of British government bonds, saying the move restores capacity to act in future crises. Writing in The Times, Bailey reiterated that previous purchases of government debt through quantitative easing were crucial in supporting the economy dur…
The Bank of England is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% as Governor Andrew Bailey and other officials take time to judge whether higher energy prices linked to the Iran war will cause persistent inflation. Recent data show the UK economy contracted in April and official surveys point to rising longer-term inflation expectations, while part…
