Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,192 total articles
A Reuters poll conducted June 26-July 1 shows most foreign exchange strategists expect the U.S. dollar's recent rally to fade in coming months as lower oil prices ease inflation concerns and reduce bets on additional Federal Reserve hikes. Still, a notable group of strategists and large net-long positions suggest the dollar may remain firm at least…
A poll of foreign exchange specialists finds Mexico’s peso is likely to remain around the center of its long-standing trading band through at least the first half of 2027. The median 12-month forecast among respondents sits near 17.78 per U.S. dollar, implying only a modest depreciation from current levels, with policymakers' stance and U.S. econom…
Poland spent about 4.7 billion zlotys (approximately $1.25 billion) over a three-month span to implement fuel price caps introduced in March. The measures included a reduced VAT rate on fuel, alignment of excise duties with the EU minimum, and daily caps on motor fuel prices; they were repeatedly extended every two weeks and concluded in June, the …
An IMF representative in Nigeria told business leaders that roughly 2% of the country’s GDP has not been captured in recent official budgets, largely because of large government projects executed off-budget. The discrepancy makes the headline fiscal deficit appear smaller than the true level of borrowing and complicates coordination between fiscal …
UBS strategists find that when inflation surprises to the upside, around two-thirds of the rise in 10-year gilt yields comes from the term premium rather than changes in short-term rate expectations. The U.K.'s unusually large share of inflation-linked debt - about 25% of outstanding gilts - helps explain why inflationary shocks steepen the gilt cu…
A UN-appointed scientific panel published its inaugural global assessment of artificial intelligence, finding rapid advances in AI capabilities that outstrip scientific understanding and regulatory preparedness, and identifying direct harms to health, information integrity and vulnerable populations. Preliminary findings will be presented to govern…
U.S. stock index futures opened lower on July 1 as investors began the second half of 2026 with renewed concerns about hostilities in the Middle East and anticipation of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Market participants are watching labor and manufacturing data alongside central bank signals that could influence rate expectations…
A United Nations independent scientific panel warned that developments in artificial intelligence are advancing faster than scientific understanding and public policy, raising the possibility of catastrophic harm. The panel's preliminary report highlights the rapid emergence of agentic AI systems, potential convergence with other high-tech fields, …
A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll conducted June 26-30 finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second-round contest for October's presidential election. The survey also presents first-round estimates and details on sample size and statistical margin.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at the European Central Bank's annual Sintra forum alongside Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and Tiff Macklem. The gathering highlights a shared focus on bringing down inflation while exposing differences on issues such as climate-related financial risk, public guidance on policy and the recent pol…
Euro zone inflation cooled more than anticipated in June, with headline consumer price growth sliding to 2.8% from 3.2% in May and core measures that exclude food and energy easing to 2.4% from 2.6%. Services inflation also moderated. The softer readings reduce immediate pressure on the European Central Bank to follow June's quarter-point rate rise…
Delegations from the United States and Iran are scheduled to hold separate meetings with mediators in Qatar, according to reports citing U.S. officials. Talks will involve Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries and follow renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are slated to consult with Qatar's p…
U.S. equity futures drifted lower as markets prepared for remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at a central banking forum in Portugal, separate U.S. and Iranian discussions with mediators in Qatar, and the release of June manufacturing data. A stronger-than-expected jobs openings figure and mixed consumer indicators kept traders attentive t…
Euro zone manufacturing closed the quarter on a positive note with output growth extending into June, capping the strongest three-month run for the sector since early 2022. The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.4 in June from 51.6 in May but stayed above the 50.0 growth threshold for a fifth month. Easing input and output inflatio…
European equity markets paused their rally on Wednesday as the STOXX 600 slipped 0.3% to 639.64 by 0710 GMT after registering its strongest quarter since October 2020. Investors weighed fresh signs that talks between Iran and the United States have stalled, while attention turned to central bank speeches at the ECB Sintra conference and expectation…
Chile's manufacturing production contracted 7.2% year-on-year in May, the largest fall since November 2022, the national statistics agency INE reported on Tuesday. The decline exceeded economist expectations of a 2.5% decrease and was led by a 10.9% fall in food manufacturing driven by reduced fish production amid adverse weather. Copper output als…
A legacy of non-performing loans from Greece’s debt crisis continues to restrict access to credit for roughly 1.5 million adults and is weighing on broader recovery. Legal disputes, protected primary residences used as collateral, and delays in servicing transfers have left an estimated €75 billion tied up, with many cases still working their way t…
Asian markets began the new quarter with caution as investors absorb large prior-quarter gains and ongoing, unproductive U.S.-Iran negotiations. Strong underlying economic data in Japan and South Korea support risk assets, while rising U.S. Treasury yields and dollar strength - including a 40-year high versus the yen - complicate the outlook ahead …
An analysis of standardized balance sheet data from S&P Global Market Intelligence covering 53 publicly traded business development companies (BDCs) finds the group moved into aggregate unprofitability in the first quarter of 2026. The shift is driven by writedowns on underlying loan portfolios - notably exposures to software firms - rising interes…
Alexander Demarco, head of the Central Bank of Malta, cautioned that the European Central Bank should not hasten another interest-rate increase in light of a swift retreat in oil prices. Speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Demarco argued that lower energy costs weaken the immediate case for further tightening, while noting that the centra…
Business surveys and official data indicate China's manufacturing sector continued to expand through June, marking the strongest performance since the fourth quarter of 2020. Driven by AI-related demand and easing cost pressures, the private sector PMI held above the 50-point growth threshold, though new export orders contracted and overall confide…
The U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, pushing the Japanese yen to a 40-year low of 162.77 in early Asian trading. This movement was driven by a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields and increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Traders are closely watching the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and are positioni…
Brazil's Ministry of Finance has issued a stark warning that achieving its fiscal targets will become impossible starting in 2028 unless the government introduces new revenue-generating measures or spending cuts. Despite implementing maximum freezes on discretionary spending, the nation's mandatory expenditures, particularly pensions and benefits, …
The US Commerce Department is preparing to lift export restrictions on Anthropic's Fable 5 AI model, marking a rapid policy reversal less than three weeks after an initial order to suspend access. This decision follows a partial restoration of access for Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5 model to select domestic organizations, signaling a calibrated appr…
New Zealand's economic expansion has encountered significant delays due to the oil price shock and rising global uncertainty, according to a concluding statement from the International Monetary Fund's 2026 Article IV mission. While the recovery showed signs of gaining momentum in early 2026 after a prolonged period of sluggish growth, disruptions t…
