OPEC+ is set to hold its oil output policy for October unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, two people familiar with the discussions said. Delegates are expected to delay any fresh output moves until members agree new quotas, a prerequisite for determining subsequent production steps.
The meeting takes place amid continuing disruptions to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war, a dynamic that has constrained OPEC+'s ability to influence global prices and preserve market share. Observers note that, unlike in earlier periods, supply decisions by the producer group have had a muted effect on the market.
In August, OPEC+ approved a production increase for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut that was first agreed in 2023. Despite the formal increases that were agreed, the group - made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers including Russia - continues to produce well below its target levels because of the impact of the war on exports.
Aside from the phased rollback, OPEC+ maintains an additional set of production cuts that apply to most members of the 21-country group through the end of 2026. Before the group can determine how to unwind those measures and return more crude to the market, it must review each member's oil production capacity in order to establish 2027 output baselines. Those baselines will form the technical foundation for next year’s quotas.
Members are expected to defer the substantive debate over production baselines until later in 2026. Given that timetable, sources earlier said the group is likely to pause further output increases during the fourth quarter while the capacity review and baseline discussions are completed.
The combination of continued export disruptions and an outstanding capacity review means OPEC+ members face constrained options in the near term. With quotas still to be set for 2027, and an existing layer of cuts running into late 2026, the group appears positioned to keep its near-term policy unchanged until internal assessments are concluded.
Context
Key decisions - including the timing for unwinding remaining cuts and the method for setting 2027 baselines - hinge on an internal capacity assessment that members must complete before quotas can be finalized.