Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Wednesday that India does not intend to raise its official inflation target and could consider reducing it over the long term, remarks made during a public discussion in Russia.
Speaking at the Financial Congress of the Bank of Russia, Malhotra held a conversation with Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina where he highlighted the role of India’s inflation-targeting framework in lowering average price growth.
India adopted its inflation-targeting framework in 2016. Under that framework the central bank is required to keep headline consumer price inflation within a band set by the government. In a review in March, the government kept the retail inflation target at 4%, with an operational band of 2% to 6%. That target will remain in effect for five years following the review.
Malhotra said he does not expect the inflation target to be raised in the foreseeable future. He added that, given that advanced economies have lower inflation targets, there could be a case for India to lower its own target over the long run.
The governor also commented on the near-term inflation outlook, saying that inflation in India is projected to rise but remains below the central bank’s target at present. He expressed confidence that the economy will continue to expand at a rapid pace in the foreseeable future.
Latest available data cited in the discussion showed retail inflation at 3.93% in May. The economy expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the quarter ended March. The government had not released retail inflation figures for June at the time of the remarks.
Context and implications
Malhotra’s comments underline continuity in India’s inflation policy stance while leaving open the possibility of a lower medium-term target. The remarks tie the policy framework adopted in 2016 to observed reductions in average inflation and reiterate that the current target band set by the government remains operational for the next five years.