Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
Kevin Warsh concludes his inaugural Federal Open Market Committee meeting at a moment of falling oil prices and a tentative peace offering that together create a supportive backdrop for the widely expected decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Market attention centers on how Warsh votes, what he says in the news conference, and whether he will…
Global oil markets experienced a sharp downturn as U.S. officials signaled plans to waive sanctions on Iranian petroleum exports. This development follows a proposed agreement to end the U.S.-Iran conflict, raising hopes for normalized supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The influx of potential barrels has sparked inflation relief sentiments…
Japan's exports expanded for a ninth consecutive month in May, surpassing market expectations as robust demand for semiconductor equipment and components helped offset significant geopolitical supply chain disruptions. Despite a sharp rise in energy costs stemming from tensions in the Middle East, the trade deficit narrowed due to strong export per…
The United States has delayed publishing additions to the Commerce Department’s Entity List, despite interagency committee approvals for over 100 entities, including Chinese AI startup DeepSeek and memory chipmaker CXMT. The pause, attributed to efforts to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing, leaves a gap in U.S. export controls, potentially all…
Japanese manufacturing sentiment has climbed for a second straight month, buoyed by robust demand in the semiconductor sector. The latest Reuters Tankan survey indicates that optimism has spread to non-manufacturing sectors, particularly real estate and construction, despite broader geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties.
G7 leaders convened in Evian-les-Bains have issued a joint declaration committing to intensified efforts to mitigate global debt vulnerabilities. The statement highlights a critical gap in financing for developing nations, particularly middle-income countries excluded from broader Group of 20 relief frameworks. As official development assistance fa…
US equity markets closed mixed on Tuesday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were weighed down by tech sector weakness, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted another record close. Crude oil prices continued to retreat following announcements of a peace deal with Iran. SpaceX's market valuation also exceeded that of Amazon, marking a significant mile…
Citadel Securities' macro strategy team says the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates in September has risen as inflation becomes more widespread and persistent. The firm points to a mix of easy financial conditions, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, a tightening labor market and rising artificial-intelligence inves…
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has long argued the central bank holds too many bonds and that reducing those holdings should be a priority. Now that he leads the Fed, he will test whether colleagues can be persuaded to adopt changes to the balance sheet. Officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged at the conclusion of his first Federal O…
A report from the Federal Reserve’s Inspector General concluded that the Fed does not have adequate programs or systems to protect employees and nonpublic information during international travel. The audit identifies missing pre-travel preparation, absent post-travel checks, no centralized tracking of foreign trips, and reporting rules that apply o…
The Bank of France has trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.9% following an unexpected 0.1% contraction in the first quarter and a jump in global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The central bank warned the outlook remains subject to geopolitical developments, noted its forecasts used oil futures as of May 21, and foreca…
The Bank of France cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 0.9%, attributing the downgrade to an unexpected 0.1% contraction in the first quarter and higher global energy costs tied to the outbreak of the Iran war in late February. The central bank used oil futures data from May 21 in its baseline, noted a flat outlook for the current quarter, and a…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf warned that an interim agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may not quickly translate into lower inflation in the euro area. He said lingering disruptions to supply chains, potential production lags from infrastructure damage and remaining uncertainty over s…
Investors and policymakers at a London conference on June 16 urged Europe to unlock roughly €35 trillion in private savings to finance the region’s industrial and technological transition. Speakers said political reforms, deregulatory moves and new investment vehicles are steps forward, but Europe must act faster and create conditions that steer ho…
French department store BHV Marais is ending its collaboration with Chinese fast-fashion retailer Shein after its owner, the Societe des grands magasins (SGM), agreed to sell the Parisian store to its current management team, French media reported on June 16. The decision follows protests and criticism that accompanied Shein’s November store openin…
U.S. Treasury yields moved in opposite directions on Tuesday as investors digested a mix of inflation and economic activity data ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting - the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped modestly while the two-year rose slightly. Stronger-than-expected import prices and a sharp fall …
The International Monetary Fund has trimmed its growth forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026 to 2%, citing fallout from the war in the Middle East. The IMF mission chief highlighted rising energy import bills and weaker demand in the European Union as the principal drags. Inflation is expected to climb to 5.4% this year, with the fund project…
Single-family housing starts dropped to their lowest pace since last September as mortgage rates and building material costs rose, contributing to an overall decline in housing starts to a six-year low. Concurrently, import prices surged more than expected in May, driven by fuel and capital goods, lifting annual imported inflation to its highest le…
The FBI announced that multiple suspects were taken into custody following a multi-state probe that uncovered an alleged plot to attack the UFC America 250 event staged on the White House South Lawn. Director Kash Patel credited swift coordination with partner agencies and the Department of Justice for stopping the plan, which federal investigators…
Switzerland will host the signing of an interim memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran on June 19 at the Buergenstock resort in the canton of Nidwalden, the Swiss foreign ministry said. The ministry said it has stayed in close contact with the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar in the run-up to the ceremony, and that th…
A senior official at Canada’s Department of Finance told a London conference that hedge funds now buy between 30% and 50% of government debt at auction, a dramatic increase from a decade ago. While authorities' concerns about such participation have eased over the past year, the official cautioned that concentration and potential herding remain ris…
Single-family housing starts fell 1.9% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 882,000 units, the lowest reading since September, as rising mortgage rates and elevated building costs weighed on construction activity. Permits for future single-family construction rose 0.6% to 886,000, while residential investment has now contracted for five s…
A broad economist poll indicates Brazil's monetary policy committee is poised to lower the Selic rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, marking a third consecutive reduction as inflation edges higher. While most respondents expect further gradual easing, concerns about inflation persistence and shifting expectations temper forecasts for t…
U.S. import prices rose 1.9% in May, surpassing expectations, driven by a large increase in imported fuel and gains in capital goods. On a 12-month basis import prices advanced 6.7%, the largest year-on-year rise since August 2022. The strength in import costs coincides with faster consumer and producer inflation readings and comes as the Federal R…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva cautioned that disruptions to energy supplies are likely to continue even after the recent agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. He said markets may not be fully pricing in the magnitude or the time needed to restore production, and that uncertainty around energy supply will rema…
