Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
Citigroup has moved its forecast for the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate reduction from September to October after the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections revealed a surprisingly hawkish tilt among policymakers. The central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in a 12-0 vote and flagged that inflation remains above the 2…
A survey of 30 market participants finds China is set to keep its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively for a 13th straight month, reflecting a K-shaped recovery with resilient exports but weakening domestic demand. The People’s Bank of China is adjusting short-term operations to manage liquidity while of…
The Central Bank of Ireland has downgraded its growth outlook and now expects GDP to shrink 2.7% in 2026 after a steep fall in exports to the United States. The bank raised its gauge of underlying domestic activity on strong investment in AI and data centres, but upgraded inflation forecasts as energy price pressures linked to the Middle East persi…
Regular pay in Britain, excluding bonuses, increased by 3.4% in the three months to April while the unemployment rate stood at 4.9%. Both readings were reported shortly before the Bank of England was set to announce its next interest rate decision. Economists had expected a slightly softer wage rise and a marginally higher jobless rate. The central…
Germany's Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) has reduced its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, blaming an energy-price shock linked to the Iran war that is weighing on private consumption and investment. The institute raised its inflation projection for 2026 and recommended that the European Central Bank avoid aggressive rate hikes while the en…
Citigroup has revised its timeline for Federal Reserve interest-rate reductions, moving the first expected cut from September to October 2026 and adding a follow-up in January 2027. The change reflects what the bank describes as a more hawkish stance among Fed officials as the new chair begins a broad policy review and market pricing shifts toward …
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first press conference to announce a comprehensive review of the Fed’s approach and to emphasize the bank’s determination to curb inflation. Quarterly projections showed nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers expect at least one rate increase by the end of 2026. Warsh urged markets to form their own assessments…
Japan's government said it remains prepared to act at any time to counter sharp moves in the yen, as the currency slid near levels not seen in almost two years. Officials stress the need to weigh both the competitive benefits for exporters and the higher import costs facing firms and households. The yen's decline follows a stronger dollar amid expe…
German industrial employment has contracted to a ten-year low of 6.6 million workers in 2025, according to research published by the German Economic Institute. The decline stems primarily from cautious hiring practices rather than mass layoffs, highlighting a structural shift in the labor market. Experts warn this trend signals potential long-term …
The Indian rupee is positioned to open weaker on Thursday following a surprise hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. This shift has increased market expectations for a potential interest rate hike later in the year. The U.S. central bank's latest projections indicate a stronger stance on inflation, prompting a rise in bond yields and streng…
The U.S. dollar maintained its position above a two-month peak on Thursday as financial markets increased their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes throughout the year. The strengthening dollar placed renewed pressure on the Japanese yen, pushing it closer to levels that market participants widely consider a threshold for potential official interven…
In a significant diplomatic development marking nearly four months of conflict, President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a memorandum of understanding in Versailles, France. The agreement outlines critical conditions for de-escalation, including Iran's pledge to forgo nuclear weapons, the reopening of the Strait of…
The Bank of England is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% following its policy meeting, prioritizing a wait-and-see approach over immediate action. This decision comes as UK inflation unexpectedly cooled to a 13-month low of 2.8% in May, yet remains influenced by volatile global energy markets and geopolitical tensions. While th…
The central bank of Brazil has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, bringing the Selic rate to 14.25%. This decision aligns with market expectations but comes as policymakers face mounting inflationary pressures from global oil price volatility and domestic economic stimulus measures ahead of the…
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh concluded his inaugural rate-setting session by maintaining current interest rates, a move that elicited public support from President Donald Trump. The decision, accompanied by updated economic projections, indicates that nearly half of central bank officials anticipate at least one rate increase this year. Unl…
U.S. equities faced significant downward pressure on Thursday as the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at current levels but issued projections indicating a possible rate increase before the year concludes. The U.S. dollar strengthened considerably, and Treasury yields edged higher in response to the central bank's updated econ…
The Federal Reserve's first policy decision under new chair Kevin Warsh revealed a hawkish pivot that unsettled financial markets. The FOMC unanimously maintained the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, while unveiling a streamlined communication strategy and a projected rate increase to 3.8% by the end of 2026. This shift, marked by a focu…
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced the formation of five independent task forces to review core elements of monetary policy-making, including one panel focused on the size and role of the Fed's balance sheet. Warsh outlined a near-term timeline for the groups to begin work within weeks, provide initial framing in the fall and largely fi…
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said U.S. President Donald Trump is entitled to prefer a candidate in Brazil, but urged him to refrain from intervening in this year’s Brazilian elections. Lula made the remarks after Trump described Brazil as 'a little rough' and 'dangerous politically' while both leaders were in Switzerland for the final day of…
Nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers now expect the central bank to raise its policy rate this year, reversing earlier expectations of holding or cutting rates, as higher oil prices after the Iran war push projected inflation above prior forecasts. The Fed left its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% and released updated individual rate-path projecti…
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% but published new projections and a pared-back statement that point to a likely increase in borrowing costs before year-end. The updated guidance removed language that had signaled potential cuts this year and emphasized strong productivity and capital investment, while attributin…
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not provide an interest rate projection in the central bank's quarterly dot-plot release, leaving 18 submissions instead of the usual 19. The Fed did not say which official withheld a projection. The omission follows Warsh's prior public criticism of forward guidance and quarterly projections and is the firs…
Federal Reserve materials released this week showed one fewer individual interest-rate projection than the number of policymakers, an omission observers are likely to link to newcomer Kevin Warsh. The absence breaks with routine publication of the so-called dot plot and raises fresh questions about the future of the Fed's public guidance practices …
A Panamax bulk carrier loaded with corn has been detected inside the Persian Gulf after crossing the U.S. blockade line outside the Strait of Hormuz, according to vessel-tracking data. The Verbier, carrying roughly 70,000 tons of dry bulk cargo bound for Bandar Imam Khomeini, disappeared from public trackers after being seen near the strait and rea…
Brazil's Finance Ministry said it supports a rural debt renegotiation program but seeks a more narrowly focused approach after the Senate approved a broad aid bill that would provide subsidized credit to the agricultural sector. Finance Minister Dario Durigan warned the current proposal would create heavy fiscal costs, estimated at roughly 140 bill…
