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Economy May 20, 2026 06:18 AM

Asian Rice Prices Hit 14-Month Peak as Harvest Prospects Worsen

Supply concerns from rising input costs and weather pressures push benchmark rice and futures prices higher, raising inflationary questions in the region

By Nina Shah

Benchmark rice prices in Asia rose to their highest level in over a year amid mounting concern about regional harvests. Thai 5% broken white rice climbed to $446 a ton, marking a third straight week of gains and the highest price since February 2025. The US Department of Agriculture expects global rice production to fall in the 2026-27 season for the first time in 11 years. Higher fertilizer and fuel costs, coupled with a potentially weaker monsoon for India linked to the looming El Nino, have prompted worries that some Southeast Asian farmers may skip planting. Chicago rice futures also rallied to their strongest levels since August. While current wholesale prices remain below the multi-year peaks reached in 2024, the uptick risks adding to consumer inflation, with countries such as the Philippines already experiencing rising costs.

Asian Rice Prices Hit 14-Month Peak as Harvest Prospects Worsen

Key Points

  • Thai 5% broken white rice reached $446 a ton, the highest since February 2025, and marked a third straight weekly rise - impacts agriculture and commodity markets.
  • The US Department of Agriculture forecasts a decline in global rice production in 2026-27, the first drop in 11 years - relevant for global food supply and futures markets.
  • Rising fertilizer and fuel costs and a potentially below-average monsoon in India tied to El Nino are increasing the risk of reduced planting in Southeast Asia - affecting food retailers, consumers, and inflation measures.

Rice prices across Asia have climbed to their highest point in more than a year as traders and policymakers watch harvest prospects with heightened concern.

Thai 5% broken white rice was priced at $446 a ton on Wednesday, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, the highest level recorded since February 2025. That reading comes amid a third consecutive weekly increase in the benchmark.

The US Department of Agriculture has projected a contraction in global rice production in the 2026-27 season, a decline that would mark the first in 11 years. That projection has contributed to the market tension surrounding supplies.

Part of the pressure on planting decisions stems from rising fertilizer and fuel prices. Those input-cost increases have raised the prospect that some farmers in Southeast Asia could choose not to sow the current crop, a development that would reduce output in a region where rice is a primary food staple.

India, the world’s largest rice exporter, is also under scrutiny. The country’s crop is grown during the annual monsoon, and forecasters cited in market reporting expect the rains to be below average as the looming El Nino weather pattern exerts influence. That combination of adverse weather expectations and input-cost pressure has heightened apprehension about forthcoming supply.

Rice futures in Chicago moved higher this week, reaching levels not seen since August, reflecting global market attention to both physical supply conditions and financial-contract positioning.

Although wholesale rice prices have not yet returned to the multi-year peaks reached in 2024, the recent increases add a fresh inflationary risk. Wholesale cost gains can transmit through supply chains to consumer prices, and several nations are already feeling upward pressure on food costs. The Philippines is one example highlighted in market commentary where consumer prices have been rising.

Market participants and policy observers will likely continue to track planting intentions across Southeast Asia, fertilizer and fuel price trajectories, and monsoon developments in India as indicators with the potential to influence rice availability and price trends in the coming months.

Risks

  • Reduced planting in Southeast Asia due to higher input costs could lower rice supply, putting upward pressure on prices and affecting food inflation - sectors impacted include agriculture and consumer staple markets.
  • A weaker-than-average monsoon in India could constrain output from the world’s largest exporter, exacerbating supply tightness and influencing international rice futures - markets and import-dependent nations are at risk.
  • Wholesale price increases for rice may feed through to broader inflation, raising costs for consumers and putting pressure on fiscal and monetary policymakers in affected countries such as the Philippines - relevant to consumer goods and macroeconomic policy.

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