Overview
A poll of 12 analysts expects the central bank to reduce its key interest rate to 12% by the end of 2026, down from the current 14.5%. The projected easing comes amid efforts to revive economic activity after a surprise contraction in the first quarter.
Economic backdrop
Government statistics showed the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the first quarterly decline in three years. Activity, however, varied within the quarter: output rose 1.8% in March after falling 1.1% in February and 1.8% in January. The fourth quarter of 2025 recorded 1.0% growth.
Forecasts and business response
Despite the contraction early in the year, analysts revised their growth outlook for 2026 upward to 1.0% from 0.8% a month earlier. The anticipated policy easing to a 12% key rate is viewed by business leaders as a threshold that would enable companies to restart investment and expand operations. At the same time, many firms reported declining profits or outright losses in the first quarter, underscoring firms' sensitivity to financing costs.
Market and sector implications
Lower policy rates would generally ease borrowing costs for corporates and may support capital spending if companies regain profitability. The near-term outlook remains tied to the pace of recovery in activity after the first-quarter setback and to how quickly businesses translate any monetary easing into new investment.
What remains uncertain
While the poll reflects analyst expectations, the timing and scale of future policy moves will depend on how economic data evolves through the year. The adjustment in growth projections and the reported corporate profit weakness highlight the balancing act facing policymakers between supporting activity and maintaining financial stability.
This article presents the poll findings, recent quarterly data, analyst revisions to growth forecasts, and business sentiment as described above.