Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,192 total articles
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill told a public panel that the central bank's shift to scenario-driven forecasts and publication of individual voting explanations has made it harder for members of the Monetary Policy Committee to form a common view on interest rate policy. Pill repeated concerns in a separate interview that colleagues may be…
The central bank said on Monday it will cut its daily foreign currency sales to 0.58 billion roubles ($7.37 million) for the second half of 2026, down from 4.62 billion roubles in the first half. The move reduces direct market support for the rouble even as planned combined purchases with the finance ministry spike for the opening days of July.
Guy Carpenter reports a 16% drop in global property catastrophe reinsurance rates on a risk-adjusted basis at mid-year renewals, compared with a 12% fall at the start of the year. The broker points to ample capital and increased reinsurer willingness as the main drivers, while cedants are adopting alternative structures such as parametric covers, s…
Hungary’s incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, warned that the country’s budget shortfall for 2026 could exceed 7% of GDP despite securing an agreement to unlock substantial European Union funding. Magyar said the figure would have been higher without the EU deal and outlined steps including an audit, a revised budget and a medium-term fiscal pla…
The cheap financing underpinning much of the U.S. equity advance is becoming costlier as leveraged exchange-traded products, heavy options activity and record dealer repo exposure push up the price of equity borrowing. Banks acting as primary dealers are carrying historically high equity repurchase agreements, tightening the capacity to intermediat…
Strong U.S. economic indicators driven by continued hiring and resilient consumer spending are colliding with cooling equity market leadership, particularly among the largest technology firms. Rising real interest rates, a flurry of corporate debt issuance to finance AI infrastructure, and a rotation of momentum trades are creating tensions between…
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces an immediate set of challenges that will help define his initial tenure. The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to rule on whether President Donald Trump lawfully tried to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a decision that could limit presidential power over central bank personnel and ease a political overhang on the F…
Investors start a shortened trading week with a dense calendar of economic releases and central bank discussion. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report leads the data slate, with economists forecasting a slowdown in hiring but continued expansion in jobs. ISM manufacturing, Eurozone inflation figures, and the annual central banker conference in Sintra wi…
U.S. and Iranian representatives have reportedly reached an understanding to stop reciprocal attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would allow shipping to move without the recent disruptions. A U.S. official says Iran has not yet publicly confirmed the pact. Negotiations are continuing on the mechanics of a memorandum of understanding and a …
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said the central bank’s move from a single central forecast to multiple scenarios has made it harder for Monetary Policy Committee members to form a shared view, a concern echoed by other policymakers. Pill voiced the point at a panel hosted by the central bank of Uzbekistan and reiterated worries about comp…
U.S. stock futures edged up Monday as investors prepared for a packed economic calendar and watched reports that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to suspend recent strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. The development eased concerns about tanker activity, while attention turns to central bank commentary at the ECB’s Sintra conference and a slate of inflatio…
European equities held steady as technology names recovered from last week’s heavy losses, even as investors remained cautious about a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Oil prices ticked higher amid scrutiny of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and attention is turning to remarks at the ECB’s Sintra conference for signals …
Markets enter the second half of the year with attention fixed on central bank direction, U.S. jobs data and continued dispersion among asset classes. The new Federal Reserve chief makes his first public international appearance at the ECB-organised Sintra conference, U.S. nonfarm payrolls are brought forward to Thursday because of next week’s holi…
China’s central bank has introduced overnight reverse repo operations for the first time, supplying 300 billion yuan to the banking system and keeping its primary seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4% as it also injected 157.5 billion yuan in seven-day repos. Market indicators and sources point to an inaugural overnight rate of 1.25%, a gap…
Renewed hostilities in the Middle East briefly unsettled markets, reviving oil and pressing risk assets even as hopes for talks later softened the move. Investors continue to fret over lofty tech valuations, questions about the durability of AI-led spending, and a strong dollar that is weighing on other currencies - most notably the Japanese yen.
China's manufacturing sector is expected to register a marginal expansion in June, driven primarily by robust demand for high-tech exports linked to the global artificial intelligence surge. However, the economy faces headwinds from sluggish domestic consumption, fading inventory stockpiling by overseas buyers, and upcoming trade policy shifts. Whi…
The Japanese government is preparing to formalize a long-term economic framework aimed at boosting annual real economic growth to exceed 1%. This target represents a significant shift from the recent average of 0.4%, supported by projected public and private investment reaching 370 trillion yen. The plan also emphasizes nominal growth above 3% and …
The U.S. dollar is advancing toward its strongest monthly performance in nearly a year, driven by geopolitical instability in the Gulf region and anticipation of key American labor data. This momentum is shaping investor expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and influencing currency valuations globally.
Asian stock markets exhibited mixed movements as diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran led to a cessation of recent hostilities, casting a temporary shadow over an interim peace agreement. Simultaneously, oil prices experienced an uptick due to lingering uncertainties, and the US dollar remained strong near a one-year peak. Addition…
Andy Burnham, the Labour lawmaker anticipated to succeed Keir Starmer as British prime minister, is set to present his governance agenda on Monday. His platform centres on decentralising authority from London to the regions, coupled with a decade-long initiative focused on reindustrialisation, housing development, infrastructure enhancement, and ut…
U.S. equity benchmarks closed a broadly positive first half of the year, but market focus has turned to this week’s payrolls report and its implications for near-term Federal Reserve policy. Volatility in technology and semiconductor stocks, a recent jump in inflation readings, and shifting rate-hike odds are combining to keep traders cautious ahea…
Bank of America has revised up its global growth outlook after a tentative improvement in Middle East tensions reduced energy market pressure. The bank trimmed its inflation projections but nonetheless expects the Federal Reserve to deliver 75 basis points of additional hikes this year beginning in September, citing resilient U.S. labor market dyna…
The Bank for International Settlements' Annual Economic Report warns that a confluence of pressures - elevated public debt, persistent financial vulnerabilities and uncertainties around the sustainability of the current AI-led investment surge - are amplifying global risks. The BIS cautions that renewed inflationary pressures, tighter fiscal positi…
Bank of America continues to recommend a long U.S. dollar stance into the third quarter, arguing that stronger U.S. growth, the prospect of additional Federal Reserve rate increases and sustained AI-driven investment will keep the greenback supported. The bank has lowered its EUR/USD forecasts and adjusted its view on the Japanese yen, now favoring…
A renewed proposal to sell UK retail bonds earmarked for defence spending is attracting attention as political leadership could change and policymakers seek new ways to fund the armed forces. Backers in parliament and the City say the bonds - potentially tax-favoured and government-backed - could raise at least A310 billion in year one and broaden …
