WASHINGTON, June 25 - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that energy and commodity prices have declined since the United States and Iran agreed to halt hostilities and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the recent drop, the Fund emphasized that a return to normal price levels and the resumption of steady Gulf trade flows are not immediate.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the organization will make a decision in its next World Economic Outlook update on July 8 about whether to continue using the three growth scenarios it laid out in April. Those scenarios were constructed around differing outcomes of the conflict involving Iran, and the Fund plans to reassess them in light of recent developments.
Kozack recalled that when the Strait of Hormuz remained closed in May - a period that kept benchmark oil prices above $100 per barrel - the global economy was moving away from a more benign "reference forecast." That reference forecast had assumed a quick end to the conflict. Under the conditions at that time, the Fund had shifted toward an "adverse scenario," which projected global growth of 2.5% for 2025.
The Fund's statements underline two concurrent realities: market reactions to the ceasefire and reopening have been visible in falling commodity and energy prices, yet the underlying disruptions to Gulf shipping and trade take longer to unwind. The IMF framed the current outlook as conditional, with future assessments to be guided by evolving developments around the Strait and related trade flows.
Context and next steps
The World Economic Outlook update due on July 8 will serve as the point at which the IMF decides whether to maintain, modify or discontinue the April scenarios tied to possible Iran-related outcomes. The Fund's prior adjustment toward an adverse scenario when the Strait remained closed in May illustrates how sensitive its growth projections have been to developments affecting energy markets and Gulf trade.
For policymakers and market participants, the IMF's approach signals that while headline energy and commodity prices may have fallen since the agreement, attention remains focused on the pace at which shipping, supply chains and price benchmarks return to pre-conflict norms.