Economy June 25, 2026 11:47 AM

IMF: U.S. Growth Momentum Strong; Fed’s Decision to Pause Rates Appropriate

Fund projects inflation will ease toward 2% by end of 2027, urges data-driven caution for future Fed moves

By Avery Klein
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The International Monetary Fund said the U.S. economy is exhibiting solid growth momentum, with first-quarter GDP revised up to a 2.1% annualized pace. IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack said inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal but is expected to ease, endorsing the Fed’s recent decision to hold its policy rate and welcoming the new Fed chair’s commitment to price stability.

IMF: U.S. Growth Momentum Strong; Fed’s Decision to Pause Rates Appropriate
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Key Points

  • IMF says U.S. growth momentum is solid, citing revised Q1 GDP at a 2.1% annualized rate (up from 1.6%).
  • The IMF expects inflation to moderate toward the Fed’s 2% target by the end of 2027 and endorsed the Fed’s recent decision to hold its policy rate.
  • The Fund noted a rebound in government consumption, strong investment, and high labor productivity; it urged caution and data-dependent calibration for any future Fed actions.

WASHINGTON, June 25 - The International Monetary Fund reported that the United States economy continues to show robust growth momentum and projected that inflation would reach the Federal Reserve’s 2% target by the end of 2027. Speaking at a regular IMF news briefing, spokeswoman Julie Kozack said the Fund viewed the Fed’s recent decision to keep its key policy interest rate unchanged as appropriate.

Kozack highlighted revised data published on Thursday that moved first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product to a 2.1% annualized rate, up from the previously reported 1.6% pace. She pointed to several domestic strength indicators underpinning that revision: a rebound in government consumption, strong investment activity, and sustained high labor productivity.

"Growth momentum in the U.S. economy has been solid," Kozack told reporters, noting that those factors make the United States somewhat of an outlier globally in the Fund’s assessment.

Although inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% objective, the IMF expects inflationary pressures to moderate over time. Kozack said this outlook was a central consideration behind the Fed’s recent pause on policy tightening.

"Because of this dynamic, we think the Fed appropriately decided to keep the policy rate on hold. Any further policy actions by the Fed will need to proceed with caution and they would need to be carefully calibrated to the incoming data," she added, emphasizing the Fund’s view that future moves should be data dependent.


Contextual notes

  • The IMF’s commentary reflects its interpretation of released U.S. data and its projection for inflationary convergence to the Fed’s target by the end of 2027.
  • The Fund specifically welcomed the strong commitment of the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, to delivering price stability.

Risks

  • Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, creating the risk that price pressures could persist and challenge the projected easing - this affects monetary policy and fixed-income markets.
  • Future Federal Reserve policy moves must be carefully calibrated to incoming data; misreading the data could lead to policy that is either too restrictive or too accommodative, affecting financial markets and investment planning.

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