Hook & thesis
Melco Resorts (MLCO) is a beaten-but-recovering casino-resort operator that, in my view, remains underpriced relative to the earnings power it demonstrated in 2025. The company reported group property EBITDA of $1.4 billion for 2025 - up 17% year-over-year - while Macau operations alone grew EBITDA 25%. Management also strengthened the liquidity position to $2.4 billion and repaid $400 million in debt, steps that materially reduce near-term refinancing risk.
From a trading perspective, MLCO offers a clear risk-reward: the shares trade near $5.95 today, roughly 41% below their 52-week high of $10.15 and only modestly above the 52-week low of $4.74. Operational momentum in Macau, a string of service accolades that support higher non-gaming revenue, and upcoming openings provide tangible catalysts that could re-rate the stock. I recommend a mid-term long trade with a clearly defined entry, stop and target.
Business primer - what Melco does and why the market should care
Melco Resorts & Entertainment develops and manages integrated resort facilities focused on casino gaming, hospitality and entertainment. Key assets include City of Dreams and Studio City in Macau, Altira Macau, City of Dreams Manila in the Philippines, City of Dreams Mediterranean in Cyprus, and related operations. The company benefits from a diversified footprint across Macau, the Philippines and Cyprus, and generates revenue from gaming, hotel room nights, F&B, retail and entertainment.
The market cares because Melco is levered to two high-potential trends: Macau's continued recovery in mass-market gaming and spending from Chinese tourists, and rising non-gaming revenue (hotel, food & beverage, luxury services) that supports higher margins. Management's balance-sheet moves and the company's improving liquidity also lower financing tail-risk - an important factor for investors in capital-intensive resort businesses.
Concrete numbers that matter
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Group property EBITDA (2025) | $1.4 billion |
| Macau EBITDA growth (2025) | 25% |
| Liquidity | $2.4 billion |
| Debt repaid (recent) | $400 million |
| Market cap | $2.32 billion |
| Trailing P/E | 12.85 |
| 52-week range | $4.74 - $10.15 |
| Shares outstanding | ~390.7 million |
Those numbers tell a coherent story: the business is producing high single-digit to mid-teens EBITDA growth in important markets while the stock carries a sub-$2.4 billion equity value. With $1.4 billion in property EBITDA, the enterprise value implied by the market cap looks constrained if EBITDA continues to climb or margins expand via higher non-gaming revenues.
Valuation framing
At a market capitalization of roughly $2.32 billion and trailing P/E near 12.9x, MLCO is priced like a business with limited near-term upside or material balance-sheet risk. That valuation ignores the sizeable $1.4 billion run-rate of property EBITDA and $2.4 billion of liquidity management that reduces the chance of equity-dilutive financing. If EBITDA expands further on Macau share gains and new openings, the equity could rerate toward multiples more typical for regional resort operators coming out of a growth cycle.
I’m not relying on peer multiples here because regional comparables have different capital structures and market dynamics. Instead, think logically: a company generating $1.4 billion of property-level EBITDA with stable liquidity and improving credit behavior is unlikely to deserve a sub-$2.5 billion market cap indefinitely. In other words, normalization of investor sentiment combined with continued operational improvement would justify substantial upside from $5.95.
Technical and market context
Technically, momentum indicators are constructive: the 10-, 20- and 50-day simple moving averages cluster around the mid-$5s range; the 9-day EMA ($5.84) sits under price and MACD is showing bullish momentum. Average daily volume over recent periods is in the 1.3M-1.4M range, and recent daily volumes are higher, which aids tradability. Short interest has fluctuated but is non-trivial; the latest settlement shows ~6.4M shares short, representing a modest days-to-cover figure around 4.46 on thinner days - enough to add volatility but not to prevent a steady re-rating.
Catalysts - why upside could accelerate
- Countdown Hotel opening and new amenities: Management highlighted additional openings that should lift non-gaming revenue and hotel ADRs, supporting margins and EBITDA.
- Macau market share gains: 25% EBITDA growth in Macau in 2025 indicates share capture and improving operations; continued tourist recovery would magnify this benefit.
- Service and brand accolades: The company achieved 19 Forbes Travel Guide Five-Star Awards in 2026 across its properties, which helps pricing power for rooms, F&B and premium services.
- Balance-sheet repair: Repayment of $400 million of debt, $2.4 billion liquidity and a recent senior notes issuance used to refinance near-term maturities reduce refinancing pressure and make free cash flow more meaningful to equity holders.
- Cyprus and other international growth: City of Dreams Mediterranean posted an impressive 78% EBITDA jump, showing that diversification beyond Macau has a real upside prospect.
Trade plan - actionable setup
Trade direction: Long the American Depositary Shares of Melco Resorts (MLCO).
Entry price: $5.95 (exact). Target price: $8.50 (exact). Stop loss: $5.00 (exact).
Horizon: mid term (45 trading days). I expect this trade to play out over a mid-term window because catalysts (hotel openings, seasonal Macau demand and balance-sheet de-risking) are likely to influence sentiment and results over several weeks-to-months rather than intraday. If the stock stalls near the target and fundamentals continue to improve, I would re-evaluate a longer hold.
Rationale for levels: $5.95 is close to today's market level and provides a clean entry where technical support and moving averages converge. The stop at $5.00 limits downside to a contained level below recent trading ranges and the 52-week low risk buffer. The $8.50 target is an intermediate re-rate toward the mid-point of the 52-week range and reflects a re-valuation assuming continued EBITDA growth and stable capital structure.
Risks and counterarguments
Melco is a fundamentally stronger business than it was two years ago, but material risks remain. Below are the top risks to the thesis and at least one counterargument.
- Macau competition and policy risk: The Macau market is intensely competitive and sensitive to regulatory changes. Any adverse policy moves or slower-than-expected inbound tourism from mainland China would reduce gaming volumes.
- Philippines operations underperformance: Management noted headwinds in the Philippines; continued weakness there would drag consolidated EBITDA despite Macau strength.
- Refinancing and interest-rate risk: The company recently issued senior notes and has been refinancing 2026 maturities. A deterioration in market conditions could raise financing costs or force more equity issuance, diluting shareholders.
- Macro and geopolitical factors: Broader macro shocks or escalation in US-China tensions could depress travel and consumer spending, weighing on all gaming operators.
- Short squeezes and volatility: The stock has non-trivial short interest and daily short volume spikes. This can create rapid moves in either direction and increase trade risk.
Counterargument: skeptics will point to cyclical exposure and the company's international footprint as a liability versus pure Macau-focused competitors. They may argue that a rising rate environment and operational missteps in the Philippines or Europe could erase gains. Those are legitimate concerns - they cap the trade size and argue for a disciplined stop. However, the counterweight is management's recent track record of repairing liquidity, the $1.4 billion EBITDA run-rate and concrete catalysts like new hotel openings and premium awards that support pricing power.
What would change my mind
I will re-evaluate or flip to neutral/short if any of the following occur: a) Macau visitor volumes fall materially below management guidance for two consecutive months; b) the company announces a sizable equity raise or other dilutive transaction; c) EBITDA momentum reverses and liquidity falls below $1.5 billion; or d) regulatory changes in Macau tighten gaming conditions materially. Conversely, sustained margin expansion, continued debt paydown, or quarterly beats that push forward guidance higher would reinforce the bullish view.
Conclusion
Melco trades like a recovery-name with a mix of tangible catalysts and manageable balance-sheet risk. With $1.4 billion of property EBITDA, $2.4 billion of liquidity and recent debt reductions, the company is no longer in the same position as prior downside cycles. The market currently prices MLCO in a way that appears to understate those facts. For traders comfortable with casino cyclical risk, a mid-term long at $5.95 with a $5.00 stop and $8.50 target offers an attractive risk-reward.
If you take the trade, size it to fit your portfolio and respect the stop - the casino business can move quickly in both directions, and catalysts play out over weeks rather than hours.
Trade checklist: Entry $5.95, Stop $5.00, Target $8.50, Horizon: mid term (45 trading days), Risk level: medium.