Morgan Stanley has increased its forecast for Tesla Inc.'s second-quarter vehicle deliveries, citing stronger-than-anticipated sales flows in Europe and renewed momentum in China. The brokerage now projects about 413,000 deliveries in Q2, up from its prior estimate of roughly 373,000 and modestly above the market consensus of approximately 401,000 vehicles.
The revision follows registration and sales data for April and May that showed better performance across several key markets. Europe accounted for the largest contribution to upside, with registrations notably higher than a year earlier and April marking a recovery month following a weak start to 2025. In China, domestic sales in May reversed a two-month streak of annual declines, rising both versus the prior month and versus the year-earlier period, indicating improving demand trends. U.S. sales, by contrast, were reported as softer year-over-year through May, though regional figures still suggested deliveries would exceed Morgan Stanley's earlier forecast.
Despite the higher delivery outlook, Morgan Stanley left its price target for Tesla unchanged at $415. The firm signaled particular caution around the company's energy storage business, trimming its estimate for second-quarter energy storage deployments to 11.8 gigawatt-hours. That figure sits below the Street's rough estimate of 14.3 GWh and reflects a conservative assessment of project timing after delays observed in the first quarter. The bank nonetheless expects deployments to pick up later in the year and projects full-year installations of about 55 GWh, which it characterized as broadly in line with consensus.
The upgraded vehicle-volume outlook also prompted Morgan Stanley to raise certain profit and revenue assumptions. The brokerage increased its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA estimate by 11% and modestly lifted full-year revenue and profit projections, attributing the revisions primarily to stronger vehicle volumes and somewhat better automotive margins.
Market reaction to the updated forecasts was modest. Tesla shares rose 1.2% to close at $379.71 on Friday after reaching an intraday high of $387.80, and continued to tick up about 0.2% to $380.41 in after-hours trading.
Context and implications
The firm’s upward revision underscores the influence of regional demand patterns on Tesla’s near-term vehicle delivery trajectory. Europe’s higher-than-expected registrations and China’s May rebound were the principal drivers behind the change in the second-quarter outlook. Morgan Stanley’s unchanged price target and continued conservatism on energy storage deployments reflect a split view: improving automotive fundamentals on one hand, and ongoing caution around the timing and pace of energy storage project rollouts on the other.
Investors and market participants focused on short-term delivery metrics and automotive margin trends may view the revised delivery estimate and EBITDA lift as supportive. Meanwhile, those tracking Tesla’s energy storage franchise will likely monitor project timing and second-half deployment acceleration, given the brokerage’s more conservative near-term storage assumptions.