Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,117 total articles
U.S. Customs and Border Protection will begin using the Consolidated Account Processing Environment (CAPE) on April 20 to issue electronic refunds to importers for $166 billion in tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. The system will consolidate payments and apply interest where appropriate; CBP says it will deploy CAPE in phases and is weighin…
The S&P 500 has essentially returned to its level from the start of the Middle East conflict more than six weeks ago, despite crude oil jumping roughly 40% and benchmark Treasury yields climbing. Markets are pricing in a near-term resolution to the war and a stronger corporate profit outlook, which has helped equities hold up even as expectations f…
Eurogroup chair Kyriakos Pierrakakis said stagflation in Europe - the combination of rising inflation and falling growth - would be the worst-case outcome of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran but that Europe has not reached that point. He echoed European Commission concerns that a spike in oil, gas and fertiliser prices tied to a shutdown of the Strait …
The International Monetary Fund trimmed its near-term global growth outlook amid higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, publishing three scenarios at its spring meetings. In the IMF's baseline - a reference case that assumes a brief conflict - 2026 real GDP growth is projected at 3.1%, down 0.2 percentage point from Janu…
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin cautioned that a lengthy closure of the Strait of Hormuz could precipitate a global recession, stressing the central role of uninterrupted energy shipments from the Middle East. He also commented on recent U.S. strikes on Iran and the resilience of Iran’s military capabilities, while noting that delayed action could have pro…
As the Middle East conflict approaches its eighth week, global markets are showing a clear divergence. U.S. equities have fully recovered losses recorded at the start of the war, but crude remains substantially elevated, keeping pressure on government bond markets and gold. Regional performance varies: large energy exporters have outperformed, whil…
The International Monetary Fund raised its projection for Russia's economic expansion in 2026 to 1.1% from 0.8%, citing stronger oil and commodity prices after disruptions to maritime oil routes. The IMF said momentum should carry a similar pace into 2027, even as the economy faces headwinds from tight monetary policy, Western sanctions and wartime…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that core inflation in the United States will continue to decline even amid the Iran war, and he reiterated his recommendation that the Federal Reserve begin reducing interest rates. He acknowledged that Fed officials might wait to assess economic effects from the conflict, and he said the …
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin told the Semafor World Economy Forum that a sustained shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could tip the global economy into recession within six to 12 months. He framed the situation as a severe energy-price shock, stressed the need to restore uninterrupted energy flows from the Middle East, and commented on geopolitical and do…
Portugal’s finance minister warned that government support after winter storms and higher energy costs tied to the Iran war could push the country into a small budget deficit. He said any gap should be limited to 0.5% of GDP to safeguard investor confidence, while reiterating the central scenario of a balanced budget and plans to continue reducing …
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of accumulating oil supplies and limiting exports of various goods amid the Middle East war. He likened the behavior to pandemic-era hoarding of medical supplies, said he has raised the matter with Chinese officials, and warned the primary pressure from China’s oil purchases is on Asian countries …
Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene told a Washington event that upside risks to inflation are her primary concern for the outlook on interest rates, while acknowledging downside demand risks and observing that data on second-round inflation effects remain mixed and could take months to appear.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg Television in Washington that the eurozone economy has shifted away from the bank's Iran war base case scenario and now sits between the ECB's baseline and adverse forecasts. She said the central bank has no bias toward raising rates and emphasized that decisions will depend on incomi…
Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will suspend Canada’s federal fuel excise tax until Labor Day weekend, reducing gasoline prices by 10 Canadian cents per liter and diesel by 4 Canadian cents per liter. The move comes after gasoline prices rose roughly 45% in 2026, a rise the government attributes primarily to the Iran war. Carney framed the polic…
The International Monetary Fund warns that the war in the Middle East and the resulting rise in energy prices are increasing global financial stability risks. Markets have seen equity declines and jumpy bond yields since February; higher inflation expectations and issuance of short-term debt raise rollover vulnerabilities. The IMF highlights potent…
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the central bank may need to delay interest-rate cuts until 2027 if oil prices remain elevated. Speaking at the Semafor World Economy conference, Goolsbee emphasized the Fed's mandate to return inflation to 2% and highlighted the importance of developments in oil and core inflat…
Kevin Warsh's newly filed financial disclosure details significant holdings exceeding $100 million alongside numerous small investments grouped under DCM Investments 10 LLC worth no more than $500,000. The roster spans high-profile assets such as SpaceX and Polymarket, two Juggernaut Fund LP positions over $50 million tied to advisory work for the …
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the Federal Reserve should hold off on lowering interest rates as oil prices surge past $100 a barrel amid the ongoing war in Iran. Speaking at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, DC, Bessent described the Fed's current stance as appropriate and reiterated that while rate cuts m…
Indian startups offering domestic help for roughly $1 an hour have sparked a sharp rise in consumer demand and a steady flow of women into app-based cleaning roles. Companies including Pronto, Snabbit and listed Urban Company are expanding rapidly, training workers, and driving record daily orders by undercutting traditional pricing. The model prom…
Britain’s finance minister Rachel Reeves will use meetings at the International Monetary Fund in Washington to signal that the UK will review tax rules to make itself more attractive to high-earning expatriates affected by instability linked to the Iran conflict. The Treasury plans a consultation on the taxation of Limited Liability Companies and b…
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for emerging market and developing economies to 3.9% from 4.2% in January, citing higher energy and food costs and uncertainty stemming from the war in the Middle East. The IMF warned the fallout will be uneven, hitting commodity importers and countries closer to the conflict hardest, whi…
The International Monetary Fund has sharply reduced its growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa, attributing the downgrade to production and export disruptions tied to the Iran war. The regional outlook for 2026 was lowered to 1.1%, with a projected rebound to 4.8% in 2027 contingent on a quick restoration of energy production and tran…
The International Monetary Fund now anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates gradually but at a marginally faster pace than its projection six months ago. The IMF's World Economic Outlook keeps near-term growth forecasts largely unchanged while flagging the offsetting effects of fiscal stimulus and fuel bill relief against exter…
The International Monetary Fund warns that the euro zone will experience slower growth and a rebound in inflation that will likely require higher interest rates from the European Central Bank, even assuming disruptions from the Iran war subside by mid-year. The IMF highlights the bloc's energy import dependence, the lingering effects of elevated en…
The International Monetary Fund has reduced its forecast for Turkey's 2026 economic expansion to 3.4% from a prior estimate of 4.2%, attributing the downgrade to softer-than-expected 2025 growth and the impact of elevated oil and gas prices. The IMF also cut its 2027 growth projection and raised inflation and current account deficit estimates for t…
