Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,117 total articles
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Semafor Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith that the Federal Reserve should hold off on lowering interest rates as the war in Iran unfolds. He described the U.S. economy as "very strong" in January and February, expressed confidence that recent price jumps will not become entrenched in inflation expectations, and hi…
China's export growth cooled to an annual 2.5% in March, a five-month low, while imports surged 27.8% - the strongest rise since November 2021. The slowdown in outbound shipments underlines how the Middle East conflict and its resulting energy shock have complicated the boost from AI-related tech demand and raised questions about the outlook for th…
Shin Hyun-song, the nominee for governor of the Bank of Korea, told parliament in written remarks that won-denominated stablecoins should be introduced and could coexist with central bank digital currencies and deposit tokens. He reiterated concerns over high household debt and the need for continued de-leveraging and property market measures, and …
A National Australia Bank survey released Tuesday found business confidence plunged 29 points to -29 in March - the second largest monthly decline on record - after the Iran war triggered a global oil shock. Business conditions remained at +6 but profits and margins weakened as purchase costs rose sharply. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates…
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi requested that Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa refrain from public comments on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, arguing that decisions on specific policy tools belong to the BOJ. The appeal follows Mr. Akazawa's suggestion that an April rate hike "c…
The dollar remained largely unchanged as investors weighed the implications of a US naval blockade of Iranian vessels against ongoing, if fragile, diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran. Currency moves were modest, oil prices slipped, and expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike this month cooled amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty…
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cautioned that policymakers are not confident interest rates are already at the level needed to bring inflation back to the 2%-3% target band, and said the central bank must now weigh the inflationary impact of the Iran war against potential effects on domestic activity.
U.S. and Iranian officials are exploring a second round of face-to-face negotiations aimed at restarting ceasefire talks after recent meetings failed to produce an agreement. Delegations are considering holding new discussions before a two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 expires next week, with Islamabad among the possible locations. Prior week…
A Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey showed Australian consumer sentiment tumbled 12.5% to 80.1 in April, the weakest reading in more than two years. The drop reflects fears over the economic effects of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, a recent 25 basis-point rate increase and a spike in fuel prices. All survey components weakened, with assessments of …
Singapore's central bank modestly tightened its monetary stance by increasing the rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band while keeping its width and center unchanged. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said core inflation is expected to pick up and remain elevated over coming quarters, and that GDP growth in 2026 is likely to step down fro…
Singapore’s economy expanded 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, weaker than expected and down from the previous quarter, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy modestly by allowing greater appreciation of the Singapore dollar under its S$NEER band amid concerns over rising energy import costs tied to the war in the Middle East.
Kevin Warsh has submitted the paperwork the Senate typically requires to advance a nomination to Federal Reserve chair, potentially enabling a Banking Committee hearing as soon as next week. Important procedural steps and an ongoing Justice Department matter connected to Jerome Powell leave the timing for full-Senate confirmation uncertain.
U.S. equity benchmarks closed sharply higher Monday after investors responded to signs of progress in negotiations over the Middle East, allowing markets to look beyond the breakdown in initial U.S.-Iran talks. Financial and technology sectors outperformed, the dollar extended a multi-session decline, benchmark Treasury yields eased and oil retreat…
Anthropic is holding discussions with the Trump administration about its frontier AI model Mythos, co-founder Jack Clark said at a Washington event. The conversations follow the Pentagon's termination of business with the company after a contract dispute, and months after the agency labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk and barred its use by the Pe…
Ukraine's central bank governor warned that oil price increases tied to the war in the Middle East have already pushed up prices within Ukraine and could raise the country's inflation rate by between 1.5 and 2.8 percentage points. He reiterated the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation to 5% within three years, welcomed recent Hungarian e…
Justin Sun, a prominent investor in World Liberty Financial's WLFI token, has alleged that the firm embedded a covert mechanism in its token contracts enabling a single party to freeze or restrict token holders' assets. World Liberty has denied wrongdoing and indicated it will seek legal resolution. Independent verification of Sun's technical claim…
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England and chair of the Financial Stability Board, told G20 finance leaders that while the global financial system has so far absorbed the shock from the Iran war thanks in part to post-2008 reforms, rising funding costs may deepen strains elsewhere. He cautioned that tighter funding could produce a 'double o…
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York disclosed that unrealized losses on the Fed's bond holdings decreased in 2025 compared with 2024, while the central bank recorded a narrower operating loss. The figures reflect accounting mark-to-market effects tied to interest-rate movements and ongoing adjustments to the Fed's large-scale portfolio of Treasuri…
Anthropic’s recently disclosed model, Claude Mythos Preview, demonstrated a capacity to autonomously find and weaponize software flaws, raising alarms across the banking sector. Security researchers say the model’s ability to scan complex, mixed-age technology stacks — where modern components sit alongside legacy systems — could accelerate discover…
BlackRock raised its rating on U.S. equities from neutral to overweight in a weekly market note, citing expectations that the Iran conflict's macro impact will be limited and that corporate profit forecasts for the U.S. and emerging markets have moved higher. The firm, which manages $14 trillion, noted two conditions that prompted the shift: eviden…
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told Fox News that oil futures suggest the recent surge in prices tied to the Iran War will be temporary. He said that if consumers remain resilient, U.S. economic growth should hold, but persistent elevated gasoline prices would force a reassessment of consumer spending and inflation dynamics.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has signaled it can deploy emergency oil stockpiles should the war with Iran further intensify the ongoing energy shock, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. Speaking at an Atlantic Council event, Birol described the conflict as the worst global energy disruption on record and noted that over 80 oil and gas…
A new assessment from White House economists finds the United States is short by at least 10 million single-family homes, a figure based on an analysis of how housing construction would have evolved if the single-family housing stock had continued to grow at its historical pace instead of declining after 2008. That estimate exceeds shortfalls put f…
Global finance ministers and central bankers converge in Washington for the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings as the Iran war and rising global borrowing costs, energy prices and inflation prospects increase strain on several emerging economies. Delegations and fund officials will weigh ongoing loan programmes and potential new arrangements for countr…
The war involving Iran has intensified global economic anxiety, prompting a wave of emergency measures to offset rising energy costs and prompting international financial institutions to lower growth forecasts and lift inflation expectations. The disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of recent U.S.-Iran talks hav…
