Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,192 total articles
The International Monetary Fund reported a decline in energy, fertilizer and base metal prices following a U.S.-Iran agreement to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while warning that a full return to pre-conflict price levels will take time. The Fund will reassess its April growth scenarios on July 8 and singled out vulnerable net e…
The International Monetary Fund reports that energy and commodity prices have retreated following the U.S.-Iran agreement to stop hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but cautions that full normalization of prices and Gulf trade flows will require time. The Fund's next World Economic Outlook update on July 8 will determine whether to retain…
The International Monetary Fund says Argentina has met its obligations to the Fund and the IMF is confident it will continue to do so, while IMF staff recently warned that the country's repayment capacity is exposed to exceptional risks tied to low liquid reserves, large near-term debt maturities and potential volatility ahead of the 2027 President…
Brazil’s central bank signaled that the ultimate scope of interest rate reductions in the current easing cycle will be guided by new economic data. Interim economic policy director Paulo Picchetti said policymakers are avoiding explicit forward guidance to retain flexibility, pointed to an upward revision in the 2026 GDP forecast that still implies…
Officials say Turkey's central bank will hold higher borrowing costs through its next policy meeting on July 23 and will not resume weekly repo funding before that date, with policymakers opting to assess incoming inflation data first. The bank kept its one-week repo rate at 37% this month and has been using a 40% overnight rate since stopping fund…
A federal judge in Boston on June 25 stopped President Donald Trump’s executive order that sought to impose new rules on mail-in voting. The order, signed March 31, would have directed federal agencies to produce lists of confirmed U.S. citizens for each state and required the U.S. Postal Service to deliver ballots only to voters on state-approved …
Brazil's central bank updated its inflation and growth projections, forecasting annual inflation of 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2028 - close to the 3.0% target - while significantly revising inflation higher through 2027 amid resilient activity. Policymakers also lifted the growth forecast for this year to 2.0% and noted factors such as normalizi…
Brazil's consumer price index rose 0.41% in the month to mid-June, below economists' 0.44% forecast, while the 12-month inflation rate accelerated to 4.80% from 4.64%. Food and beverages and housing accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase. The central bank's updated forecasts show inflation easing to the target by 2028 but a deteri…
The U.S. PCE price index climbed 4.1% year-on-year in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023, as higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict pushed gasoline prices up. Core PCE rose 3.4% year-on-year. Consumer spending increased 0.7% in May, supported by larger tax refunds and a stock market rally, even as savings are being d…
Consumer prices in Brazil rose 0.41% in the month to mid-June, slightly beneath market expectations. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.80% year-on-year, staying above the central bank's 3% target band. Food and housing were the largest contributors to the monthly rise, though both moderated from May. The central bank has revised its inflation outlo…
A U.S. district judge in Washington, D.C. has enjoined a Department of Education regulation that would have tightened student loan eligibility for many graduate programs in nursing and other health fields. The court concluded the department lacked authority to narrow the regulatory definition of "professional degree" after Congress adopted an exist…
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Bahrain that Gulf countries expressed no support for any tolling or fee arrangement for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio said fees and tolls are equivalent and called a tolling system unworkable. He also discussed Iran-related negotiations, regional tensions between Israel and Lebanon, …
KKR reported more than $900 million in monetization income for the second quarter through June 24, marking a notable pickup in exit activity compared with the first quarter and its recent quarterly trend. The firm said the second-quarter pace is well above its three-year quarterly average, and cited stronger sponsor-backed IPO activity as a contrib…
Wolfe Research economist Stephanie Roth argues that the long-running bet on currency debasement may be reversing. She points to a near-25% drop in gold since late February, a broad-based dollar advance, falling Treasury yields and bitcoin's changing correlation with the dollar as evidence that the market is repricing away from debasement-driven ass…
BofA Global Research has withdrawn its projection that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year, calling the decision a "close call". The change reflects falling energy prices, moderating inflation and a weaker economic backdrop. The firm now expects rates to remain unchanged, and has pared back earlier forecasts for 2027 cuts.
A new study examining immigration trends across wealthy OECD countries finds that higher inflows over the past 35 years are strongly associated with faster growth in GDP per worker and increased investment. The paper reports that an inflow equal to 1% of population correlates with a 1.2% rise in productivity within five years and 1.9% within ten ye…
A new research paper to be shown at the European Central Bank's Sintra conference next week argues that reducing the complexity of bank regulation can unintentionally weaken the system by making rules easier to circumvent. The study, which includes work from Stockholm School of Economics professor Mariassunta Giannetti, finds that simpler rules are…
The International Monetary Fund projects Switzerland's economic expansion will weaken in the short term, slowing to 1.1% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, before picking up to 1.2% in 2027. Adjustments for scheduled sporting events lower the 2026 growth estimate to 0.8% and raise the 2027 figure to 1.5%. The IMF also expects full-year inflation to run at …
Bain & Company reports early second-quarter signs of recovery in the global personal luxury goods market, driven by stronger U.S. demand and a gradual rebound in China. The consultancy has adjusted its central scenario to a 2% to 4% increase in personal luxury sales for the year, down from a November forecast of 3% to 5%. The study highlights shift…
The Federal Reserve’s policy path has become harder to forecast as futures traders price in rate increases that many asset managers doubt will materialize. Energy-driven inflation, slackening wage growth and housing weakness are cited by some who expect disinflation and eventual cuts, while the Fed’s hawkish tone and reduced forward guidance have f…
France faces a rapidly expanding public debt load that the national audit office says is already constraining policy options and leaving the country exposed to shifts in market sentiment. The Cour des Comptes described this fiscal position as a reality rather than a risk, warned that risks intensify in 2026, and urged a clear multi-year strategy to…
Bank of America says the Brazilian central bank has likely finished cutting interest rates and will keep the Selic at 14.25% for an extended period. The firm warns that the probability distribution now places non-negligible weight on a future rate increase in 2027, after revisions to its U.S. Federal Reserve outlook reduce room for additional easin…
Bank of America has raised its 2027 growth projection for South Korea to 2.2% from 2.0%, citing an AI-led semiconductor upcycle and improvements in the external balance. The firm keeps its 2026 GDP forecast at 3.1% year-over-year and now projects three Bank of Korea rate increases that would lift the policy rate to 3.25% by early 2027. The bank als…
In early March, following Iranian strikes on targets in the United Arab Emirates, Dubai’s senior officials assembled a large, private meeting of business leaders to coordinate measures aimed at preventing capital flight and economic damage. Attendees were asked how to restore tourists and investors and what support firms needed. Authorities have si…
Members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee say recent changes to the central bank’s communications - shifting from a single central forecast to multiple scenarios and publishing individual explanations for votes - risk undermining collective forecasting and internal discussion. External members Megan Greene and Alan Taylor voiced co…
