Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,101 total articles
Bank of America analysts warned that expectations for euro-area interest rates and inflation have diverged, with markets currently pricing in more ECB tightening than the bank thinks is justified. The mismatch, driven in part by a recent surge in natural gas to highs not seen since the start of the war in Iran, leaves room for trades that exploit a…
Prediction market Kalshi said it has permanently barred former Congressman George Santos from its platform and imposed a penalty exceeding $71,000 after concluding he placed bets on his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address and made false social media statements that benefited those wagers. The disciplinary move comes amid …
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC he believes the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan will take actions that result in a stronger yen. He said he had information markets do not have and indicated the market is already pricing in a potential move by the BOJ. The yen rose against the dollar after his comments as he hosted a Group …
A federal judge in San Jose ruled that a trust replacing Silicon Valley Bank's former holding company may not pursue a $1.71 billion claim against the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, finding that the holding company and its officers bore responsibility for the investment decisions that produced large losses in the bank's securities portfolio.
National dwelling prices in Australia declined for a fifth consecutive month in August, with Cotality data showing a 0.9% drop from July and broader weakness across capital cities and regional markets. Sales activity has weakened materially and policy moves, tax changes and slowing credit growth point to continued pressure on the housing sector.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent opened discussions with G20 finance ministers in Asheville, North Carolina, urging growth as the primary strategy to tackle elevated sovereign and global debt loads that followed the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. He said many attendees at the two-day meeting signaled receptiveness to that a…
Germany's annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August from 2.8% a month earlier, driven by a rise in energy prices, while core inflation - excluding food and energy - remained stable at 2.4%. Energy inflation climbed to 10.5% from 8.3%. Analysts had expected a larger EU-harmonised CPI rise. The data precedes an upcoming euro zone inflation release…
Summary: Portugal's economy expanded 0.8% in the second quarter from the prior quarter, up from 0.1% in Q1, the National Statistics Institute said. The upgrade in quarterly growth was confirmed in a second estimate of gross domestic product, with net exports and private consumption cited as the principal contributors. On a year-on-year basis the ec…
Polymarket's newly appointed global head of investigations and intelligence says the prediction market operator has strengthened systems to detect and deter misconduct ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. The company is preparing to publish more detail about its market-integrity practices, while also working to prevent U.S. participants from access…
Barclays reports that euro area economic activity remains resilient, driven by external demand and a pick-up in German momentum despite weak domestic demand and a stagnating French economy. National inflation readings for August and rising producer prices suggest headline inflation will climb, reinforcing ECB communication that points toward an add…
U.S. stock index futures declined early Monday after military strikes between the U.S. and Iran restarted, driving oil prices higher and amplifying worries about persistent inflation. Comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and a marked rise in the probability of a September rate hike added to market unease ahead of the U.S. employment …
Andrew Bailey, chair of the Financial Stability Board and Bank of England governor, warned G20 finance and central bank officials that advanced AI models pose a rising threat to global financial stability. In a letter sent on Monday to regulators, Bailey highlighted recent incidents where models from firms including OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta Platf…
Barclays economists say Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks were markedly hawkish, prompting the bank to forecast a 25-basis-point rate increase in September and another in December. Warsh highlighted a stronger economy, labor markets consistent with full employment, healthy consumption and easy credit conditions, and placed…
Official figures show the Turkish economy expanded 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The reading was below estimates from a recent poll and marks the fourth consecutive quarter of slowing growth. Agriculture, forestry and fishing, and information and communication…
Britain’s energy regulator has approved a 3.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in household energy bills from October, a move that is substantially larger than Barclays’ earlier 0.5% projection. Barclays says the revision does not materially alter its central inflation outlook — with headline CPI still expected to peak at 3.1% year-on-year in October — but…
A congested week of events - from central bankers shifting from Jackson Hole to the G20 in Asheville, to key U.S. labour data and central bank decisions in Canada and New Zealand - leaves traders with little breathing room. Markets will watch Treasury market dynamics, talk of 'dollar debasement', inflation readings across the euro zone and the U.S.…
Central bankers from Europe departed the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium unsettled about recent U.S. Treasury actions and concerned those moves signal a willingness in Washington to take atypical steps that could unsettle global markets. Officials said Federal Reserve representatives sought to reassure counterparts that the Fed would honor…
Fresh military exchanges in and around the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent oil prices back above $90 a barrel and pressured equity markets across Asia and Europe. U.S. strikes on missile launchers on Larak island, a retaliatory attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, and reports of Iran attempting to lay naval mines contributed to shipping disruptions and h…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a coordinated strategy of weekly secondary sanctions aimed at deterring global financial institutions from facilitating transactions linked to Iran. The administration is prioritizing the banking sector and signaling potential exclusion from the dollar-clearing system for noncompliant entities.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled that Washington will push G20 finance leaders to evaluate their commercial agreements with China, aiming to reduce global trade disparities and encourage a shift toward internal demand. With Chinese exports currently viewed as unsustainable, the administration plans to leverage multilateral dialogu…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided a measured assessment of recent foreign exchange dynamics, emphasizing that the Japanese yen’s latest depreciation remains well managed. The remarks align Washington and Tokyo on prioritizing predictable market conditions over reactive intervention as global financial leaders prepare for policy discuss…
Iran on Sunday affirmed it will not rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing Tehran's control over a critical global energy artery as a six-month conflict with the United States persists. Conflicting accounts about the status of commercial shipping, intensified economic measures from Washington, and parallel regional security and energy mov…
Iceland held a referendum on Aug. 29 on whether to resume talks with the European Union, with the electorate closely split. Campaign themes centered on the cost of living, high interest rates, sovereignty and control of fishing waters. A Gallup poll shortly before voting showed a small majority opposed reopening negotiations. If approved, a 'yes' w…
Goldman Sachs published a research note finding that U.S. inflation expectations have remained broadly anchored even after more than five years of above-target inflation. Using survey analysis and an adapted memory-based model, the bank draws three core lessons about the formation and persistence of expectations and projects inflation to return to …
China's extensive crude inventories, built up over recent years, have enabled Beijing to sharply cut oil imports amid the Iran war. The stockpiles - estimated between 1 billion and 1.4 billion barrels - provided roughly 120 days of import cover and supported a 23% decline in crude arrivals between March and July versus the prior year. At the same t…
