Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,192 total articles
The World Bank Group has named Michael Kremer, a 2019 Nobel Prize winner and director of the Development Innovation Lab at the University of Chicago, as its next Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. The appointment, announced by World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, becomes effective October 1, 2026. Kremer's resear…
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% range. Because inflation remains comfortably above the Fed’s 2% goal and global borrowing costs have edged higher, attention is focused on how Chair Kevin Warsh presents the decision and his outlook for future policy. Investors will judge whether the…
Global brokerage firms broadly expect the S&P 500 to continue its advance into 2026, citing AI-driven earnings growth and robust corporate results as the primary catalysts. Strategists acknowledge that the conflict in Iran is weighing on investor sentiment, but believe AI-led earnings strength can counterbalance the shorter-term economic effects. F…
A central bank-commissioned quarterly survey found that South African inflation expectations stabilised in the third quarter after a sharp increase in the prior period linked to an oil price shock. Forecasters left the near-term projection for this year unchanged, trimmed expectations for 2027 and 2028, and highlighted the lagged transmission of in…
New Zealand’s parliament has officially approved legislation to enact a bilateral free trade agreement with India, clearing the final domestic hurdle before implementation. The accord eliminates or substantially lowers duties on approximately 95 percent of New Zealand exports to India, positioning the arrangement as a structural shift in bilateral …
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers the United States contributed only a nominal amount to a coordinated effort to shore up the yen, saying the action served U.S. interests by supporting exports and reducing the likelihood Japan would sell U.S. assets to finance its intervention. He also signaled a preference for Bank of Japan rate move…
Government data show India's unemployment rate declined to 5.0% in August, down from 5.1% in July and marking the lowest monthly reading in six months. The National Statistics Office also recorded modest increases in labour force participation, the worker population ratio, and female workforce engagement, while rural and urban areas moved in opposi…
U.S. equities have shown resilience in the face of a recent surge in Treasury and overseas government bond yields. Driven by sustained AI-related profit growth and firm corporate earnings, major indexes remain close to record levels despite higher yields. Investors are watching whether this calm will persist as rising yields, oil prices and inflati…
European equities edged down as heavyweights in the banking sector fell, while rising oil prices and higher global bond yields pressured investor risk-taking ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. The STOXX 600 fell 0.4% to 633.3 points as banks led losses and markets priced in further central bank tightening.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surged to their highest point since early 2007, topping the symbolic 5% mark and reaching an intraday high of 5.030%. The move reflected rising market conviction that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week, alongside concerns about persistent inflation and deteriorating U.S. …
Global markets opened the week under pressure as political and geopolitical developments pushed investors to weigh higher interest rates against rising oil prices and a heated debate over artificial intelligence regulation. U.S. rate expectations climbed, benchmark Treasury yields touched a key psychological level, and energy markets reacted to att…
U.S. energy policy leadership has dismissed proposals to restrict domestic oil and fuel exports as an effective mechanism for reducing consumer costs. The assessment comes against a backdrop of elevated commodity pricing, ongoing geopolitical strain, and persistent regional supply bottlenecks that continue to pressure freight and distribution netwo…
New Zealand's residential property market cooled in August as seasonally adjusted median house prices slipped 1.3% both month-on-month and year-on-year. Sales volumes declined and properties spent longer on the market, with regional divergence as the South Island outperformed the North Island amid stronger local employment and agricultural conditio…
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said on Monday that Venezuelan coal could be included in energy arrangements with the United States, noting it could serve both for export and for domestic power generation as Venezuela works to restore its electrical grid. A recent amendment to a U.S. sanctions license clarified that American firms can engage with Ve…
While attending the Irish Open, President Donald Trump said the United States should have the world's lowest interest rates, days before the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. His remarks came as U.S. inflation measures showed a notable increase and the Fed prepares to meet amid concerns over persistent price pressures and upcoming midterm ele…
Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for the Bank of England, now projecting a 25-basis-point rise in the bank rate in November 2026 after recent increases in energy costs, a larger-than-expected uptick in headline inflation and robust growth data. The bank still expects the BoE to hold at 3.75% in September and to pause after a potential November…
U.S. equity futures fell early Monday after high-level warnings about accelerating artificial intelligence development prompted investors to reassess the outlook for large-scale AI infrastructure spending. The selloff in Asia and Europe followed comments from Anthropic's CEO calling for a deliberate deceleration in frontier model development, suppo…
The U.S. Treasury increased the maximum size of its long-dated debt buyback to $6 billion from $2 billion, a move that fell short of calming investors. After the operation, in which $5.187 billion of 10- and 20-year securities were repurchased, long-term Treasury yields rose to multi-week and multi-month highs, underscoring market skepticism that m…
Federal banking regulators on Friday released a proposed, principles-based set of guidelines intended to help banks and credit unions align third-party risk management to the risks presented by individual vendor relationships. The Federal Reserve, OCC, FDIC and NCUA said the guidance is non-binding and would replace existing third-party risk guidan…
The August consumer price index report showed core inflation - excluding food and energy - rose 0.3% month-over-month, above economists' 0.2% forecast, and 2.4% year-over-year. Overall CPI measured 3.4% year-over-year. Coupled with a stronger-than-expected producer price index and oil climbing above $100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East hostilitie…
Brazil's consumer prices slowed more than economists expected in August, with the IPCA annual rate falling to 4.22% and monthly inflation recording its largest drop since August 2022. The data strengthens expectations that the central bank will reduce interest rates again at next week's meeting after four straight cuts that lowered the Selic to 14%…
Rising energy costs have prompted Capital Economics to increase its projection for UK consumer price inflation, heightening the challenge for the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold. The research house now expects UK CPI to rise from 2.9% in July to a peak just above 4% early next year, and has lifted its third-quarter growth forecast fo…
U.S. consumer prices picked up in August, driven in part by a rebound in gasoline costs, pushing the Consumer Price Index up 0.4% for the month and 3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in August and 2.4% on an annual basis. A stronger Producer Price Index and solid employment figures have increased market expectati…
The U.S. 10-year real bond yield - the discount rate for global equities - has risen sharply since February, driven by stronger growth indicators, a firmer U.S. labor market and heightened inflation risk. Geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher and added supply-chain strain. While markets broadly expect further upward pressure on yields…
The Bank of England reported materially lower public inflation expectations in August following a switch in the firm that conducts its survey. While Savanta's August results show declines across one-, two- and five-year horizons compared with Ipsos-run May figures, the BoE cautions that differences between providers make it difficult to conclude wh…
