The U.S. is projected to send more natural gas abroad over the next two years, according to the Energy Information Administration's most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook released Thursday. The report anticipates a steady rise in net natural gas exports through 2027, driven by new export capacity and increased utilization at existing terminals.
Forecasted export volumes
The EIA projects U.S. net natural gas exports will increase by 18% to 18.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, and then climb a further 10% to 20.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. For liquefied natural gas specifically, the agency expects exports to average 17.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, with a 9% rise projected for 2027.
Drivers of higher shipments
The outlook notes that U.S. LNG export terminals are likely to operate at elevated utilization rates in 2026. A factor cited in the report is stronger demand for cargoes from regions outside the Strait of Hormuz, which follows disruptions to Qatari supplies, including damage at the Ras Laffan facility. Those disruptions have contributed to an environment in which U.S. terminals may see increased demand for shipments.
Capacity additions on the horizon
Export capacity is scheduled to expand as Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass LNG are slated to begin operations in 2026. The EIA also indicates that additional projects are expected to start in 2027, supporting further growth in U.S. LNG outflows.
Implications and context
The EIA's projections connect the planned additions of export facilities with near-term increases in shipments. Higher terminal utilization in 2026 is presented as a response to both capacity expansion and shifting global cargo demand patterns. The report ties recent supply disruptions in Qatar to stronger demand for U.S. cargoes from markets located outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Summary of the report's key numerical forecasts
- Net U.S. natural gas exports: up 18% to 18.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, and up 10% to 20.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2027.
- U.S. LNG exports: average 17.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, with a 9% increase projected for 2027.
- New capacity additions: Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass LNG expected to start operations in 2026; more projects expected to start in 2027.
The EIA outlook presents a clear path of increasing U.S. exports over the next two years tied to scheduled capacity growth and elevated utilization. The report also highlights an external supply disruption that has influenced demand patterns for U.S. shipments. Beyond the numerical forecasts, the analysis in the outlook focuses on the timing of new facilities and the immediate market response to changes in global supply flows.