European natural gas prices regained some ground on Thursday as traders weighed the possibility of renewed talks between the U.S. and Iran while also tracking shifts in investment fund positioning.
By 08:40 ET (12:40 GMT), the Dutch front-month contract at the Title Transfer Facility - the European benchmark - had risen 2.2% to 42.29 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), according to Intercontinental Exchange data.
Benchmark European gas remains substantially above pre-war levels. Market participants continue to point to several supply-side pressures that have tightened availability, including what the market treats as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a series of attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Attacks on production facilities in Qatar were highlighted as part of the drivers that have dented flows, contributing to a broader global increase in gas prices.
Mediators are continuing efforts to secure a lasting end to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran as a temporary two-week ceasefire approaches its scheduled expiry later this month. Reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran have agreed in principle to hold additional talks after an initial round in Pakistan last weekend did not produce an immediate agreement. Officials familiar with the matter said that neither side has yet set a time or venue for the follow-up meeting.
According to those reports, the U.S. delegation in any future discussions would be led by Vice President JD Vance. At the same time, points of friction persist - most notably the continuation of a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian military leadership has publicly warned Washington against maintaining that blockade. U.S. Central Command has stated that no Iranian-linked commercial ships or oil tankers have evaded the blockade.
Gen. Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, clarified in a press briefing that the U.S. blockade applies only to Iranian ports and coastline, and does not extend to the Strait of Hormuz.
Alongside the geopolitical developments, traders have been observing a reduction in investment funds' net long exposure in TTF futures. Data from ING showed that funds reduced their net long positions by 37 terawatt hours to 271 TWh for the week ended April 10.
ING analysts commented on the dynamic between prolonged regional disruption and global market competition, writing: "Clearly, the longer disruptions in the Middle East persist, the more competition we’ll see from Asia as buyers seek alternative supplies." That dynamic underpins part of the market's sensitivity to both diplomatic progress and supply-chain interruptions.
Prices, positioning and geopolitical cues will continue to be monitored closely by market participants, given how supply interruptions and rerouted demand can quickly reshape European and global gas flows.