The International Monetary Fund warned that the economic fallout from the Iran war will be uneven across the Middle East and North Africa, with Gulf oil and gas exporters set to bear the brunt of energy-sector disruptions and import-reliant economies such as Egypt and Jordan vulnerable to higher commodity prices and possible declines in remittances.
In its latest Regional Outlook Report, the IMF lowered the region's growth forecast, saying real GDP expansion is now expected to be 1.1% this year. That projection is 2.8 percentage points below what had been forecast prior to the outbreak of the conflict. The report also projects a subsequent recovery in 2027.
Channels of impact
The fund highlighted that the effects extend beyond crude oil and gas. Jihad Azour, the IMF director for the Middle East and Central Asia, noted that the war is affecting a range of other products produced in the region and underscored the area's strategic position for certain global goods. Azour pointed to exports such as fertilizers, various chemicals and other specialized products, and said the region functions as a globally strategic economic corridor.
Azour also drew attention to non-oil sectors that have been affected. He cited the strategic global positioning of Gulf countries in areas including airlines and logistics, implying that disruptions in these networks could transmit economic stress more broadly.
Risks for importers
The IMF cautioned that a number of oil-importing economies in the region are closely tied to Gulf economies through both energy imports and financial flows. This dual dependence increases their exposure if the conflict intensifies or becomes protracted, raising the risk of pronounced economic shocks for those countries.
The fund's assessment frames a picture of differentiated vulnerability across the region: exporters facing direct hits to energy earnings and the broader export mix, and importers facing the secondary effects of price shocks and reduced external financial support. The IMF's forecasts and commentary underscore how interconnected energy markets, specialized exports and logistics are to the region's near-term economic trajectory.