Gulf Arab and European leaders are working from a shared expectation that a negotiated US-Iran peace agreement will require roughly six months to complete, and they are lobbying for the existing ceasefire to be prolonged so talks can take place, regional officials said.
Those officials said Gulf states remain of the view that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons development - a stance that, according to the officials, has not shifted in the wake of the US-Israeli bombardment of the country. As a result, Gulf leaders say any acceptable accord must include explicit prohibitions on Iran enriching uranium and on its possession of long-range ballistic missiles.
Officials described a regional consensus against renewed military escalation. Gulf leaders are instead urging the United States to pursue diplomatic engagement with Iran to resolve the conflict rather than returning to hostilities.
A central demand from the leaders is the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to restore disrupted energy flows. The officials cautioned privately that if the waterway remains closed beyond next month, the interruption could trigger a global food crisis.
The leaders also signaled expectations that energy prices would climb further if the conflict extends beyond the six-month timeline they have outlined, reflecting the close link between secure maritime passages and global commodity markets.
Details and context
Officials relayed that the six-month estimate is intended to provide a working timeline for negotiations and that an extension of the ceasefire would allow diplomatic channels to pursue the security guarantees Gulf states are demanding. Those guarantees center on preventing Iran from developing or retaining capabilities Gulf leaders associate with weapons programs.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is being framed by regional leaders as a necessary step to normalize energy flows. The officials warned that prolonged closure could have broader humanitarian and market effects, including a risk to global food supplies and upward pressure on energy prices.
Implications for markets and logistics
- Energy markets face upward pressure if the conflict persists beyond the leaders' projected timeline.
- Shipping and maritime logistics tied to the Strait of Hormuz are central to restoring commodity flows and preventing broader supply disruptions.
- A prolonged closure of the waterway could ripple into agricultural supply chains, raising food security concerns.