Airbus has revised its long-term view of passenger jet demand downward, trimming its rolling 20-year industry forecast by 1% as recent geopolitical shocks interrupted what had been a strong recovery in airline activity following the COVID-19 pandemic.
The European planemaker now expects 42,060 passenger aircraft to be delivered between 2026 and 2045. That aggregate figure represents a 1% reduction from its prior two-decade outlook and encompasses both single-aisle and wide-body aircraft sold across the industry - including models from Boeing and newer entrants such as China's C919.
Broken down by segment, Airbus projects 33,920 deliveries of single-aisle jets in the busiest market segment - the class that includes the A320neo family and Boeing's 737 MAX - and 8,140 wide-body, long-haul aircraft. Both segment forecasts are down 1% from the previous 20-year forecast.
"That post-COVID recovery has effectively flattened," Antonio Da Costa, head of market analysis, said to reporters. The company pointed to the Iran war and a stretch of trade tensions as the main catalysts that have sapped momentum from earlier growth projections. Higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict have led airlines to temper capacity expansion plans, according to Airbus.
Airbus noted that the lowered forecast still implies a substantial flow of jets to airlines over the next two decades, but that a greater share of deliveries - 47% versus 45% previously - is now expected to be replacement aircraft rather than additions to overall fleet size. That shift indicates that a meaningful portion of upcoming deliveries will be directed at renewing older fleets instead of expanding capacity.
At the same time, Airbus adjusted its headline passenger traffic growth estimate upward to 3.9% a year from 3.6%, while clarifying that on a like-for-like basis this represents a downgrade from a 4.1% projection. The company did not publish numbers for freighter demand in this edition of its forecast.
One implication of the revised delivery totals is that announced production plans from Airbus and Boeing are only just accommodated within the updated demand picture, with room left for China's C919 to take a share in coming years. Airbus suggested that this balance means the broad aircraft shortages seen recently may eventually ease.
Regional patterns in the forecast showed continued strength in Asia, with the company saying the region is expected to account for about half of all deliveries. India remains the fastest-growing air travel market in the world in Airbus' view, with the company's forecast for annual domestic traffic growth in India nudged up to 9.1% from 8.9%. Conversely, the forecast for China's large domestic market was lowered to 4.7% from 5.4%.
In the Middle East, Airbus said Gulf hub traffic has largely returned toward normal volumes during a fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict, signaling a partial normalization for that important connecting market.
Airbus also highlighted structural shifts in route economics and aircraft demand. The manufacturer emphasized the rising importance of secondary cities and promoted smaller and longer-range narrow-body types, such as the A220 and the A321XLR, which the company says can "bypass megahubs." That stance contrasts with Airbus messaging a decade ago when the A380 superjumbo and megacities were focal points; production of the A380 has since been halted due to weak demand.
Executives reiterated that the aviation sector has historically absorbed very large shocks - from past crises to the pandemic - but they noted that as the market matures some long-term growth rates are moderating. Airlines are responding with a mix of measures, including operating aircraft for longer periods or increasing seating density. Airbus also mentioned the potential for artificial intelligence to deliver additional operational efficiency gains.
Key implications for the industry include a tempered outlook for capacity expansion, a larger share of deliveries aimed at replacement rather than network growth, and a continuing role for Asia, particularly India, in driving aircraft demand over the coming decades.