Airbus released its 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast on Tuesday, projecting a sharp expansion in global air travel over the next two decades. The plan estimates passenger traffic will exceed 10 billion travelers per year by 2045, more than doubling current volumes.
The forecast attributes the rise to an annual passenger traffic growth rate of 3.9%. Airbus links that expansion to several macro drivers it models: global GDP growth of 2.6% per year, an increase in urban populations of 1.3 billion people, and a larger middle-class cohort. The report highlights that the segment of the middle class most likely to fly is expected to grow by 1.4 billion people, a 34% increase.
Fleet demand and breakdown
Over the 2026-2045 horizon Airbus calculates demand for 42,060 new aircraft in total. That aggregate comprises 19,820 aircraft to replace aging types and 22,240 to serve growth in passenger volumes and new routes. Single-aisle aircraft are expected to dominate that need, accounting for 81% of the total, while widebody models represent the remaining 19%.
The company notes it currently holds a record order book of approximately 9,000 aircraft. Within the A320 Family backlog, more than 70% of orders are for the largest A321neo and XLR variants.
Changing urbanization and route dynamics
The forecast emphasizes a shift in urbanization patterns. Smaller cities are projected to expand at nearly three times the rate of larger urban centers, opening up new economically viable city pairings that previously may not have supported direct air links. Airbus cites examples of such pairings, including Riga-Tenerife and Melbourne-Alice Springs, and notes that aircraft like the A220 can serve these routes effectively.
Alongside urban change, traffic patterns are evolving geographically. The forecast points to growth in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia as key contributors to rising passenger volumes. Airbus also highlights increased international migration and family-related travel as forces influencing demand.
Fleet modernization
On fleet composition, Airbus projects a dramatic modernization by 2045. The company expects that nearly 100% of the global fleet will consist of newest-generation aircraft by that date, a steep rise from an estimated approximately 39% in 2026.
The forecast frames a long-term market for aircraft and route development shaped by demographic shifts, urbanization trends and changing travel patterns, with single-aisle airplanes central to meeting projected demand.