Kepler Cheuvreux has upgraded Viaplay to a Buy from a Hold and increased its price target to 1.50 Swedish crowns from 1.45, following the streaming group's announced sale of its Dutch business.
Viaplay has reached an agreement to divest its Netherlands operations to Videoland, a unit owned by DPG Media, in a transaction valued at about 1.6 billion Swedish crowns. Kepler Cheuvreux says the cash proceeds are intended to support the company’s deleveraging efforts.
In the broker's assessment, the transaction is "strategically sensible" because it concentrates Viaplay on its Nordic core and bolsters the balance sheet while management keeps guidance unchanged. Kepler interprets the unchanged guidance as a signal of management confidence in the company’s Nordic strategy.
Valuation metrics underpin part of Kepler Cheuvreux’s view. The broker notes the implied price equates to around 0.95x projected 2025 sales, a level it considers reasonable given that the Dutch footprint offers limited strategic benefit when negotiating Nordic sports rights. Kepler also highlighted the timing of the divestment - occurring ahead of upcoming sports-rights renewals - as prudent, given the potential for a more challenging Dutch market in the future.
From a financial standpoint, Kepler Cheuvreux identifies the main upside as the cash inflow reducing leverage, improving liquidity headroom and lowering execution risk during the remainder of Viaplay’s cash-flow recovery phase. The broker adds that, combined with a tighter focus on the Nordics, unchanged guidance and recent weakness in the share price (down roughly 30% since the end of May), the trade-off now appears to present a more attractive risk/reward profile.
The target price revision to 1.50 crowns represents a 3.4% increase versus the prior target. With the stock trading at 1.22 crowns, Kepler’s figures imply roughly 22.6% upside to the new target, based on market data as of July 7, 2026.
Looking to the second quarter, Kepler Cheuvreux expects like-for-like core revenue to be broadly flat. The broker anticipates strength coming from streaming and pricing, offset by softer performance in non-streaming activities, advertising and sublicensing.
On profitability and cash flow, Kepler forecasts modest pro forma EBITDA growth of about 1%, aided by foreign-exchange movements and early synergies from the Allente combination. By contrast, the broker expects free cash flow to turn negative to 0.3 billion crowns, reflecting a working-capital reversal, cash drag from non-core activities and restructuring payments.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Media and streaming sector - The deal sharpens Viaplay’s Nordic positioning and alters the company’s geographic mix.
- Fixed-income and credit markets - Deleveraging proceeds could reduce credit strain and improve liquidity metrics.
- Sports-rights and advertising markets - Exiting the Dutch footprint may influence Viaplay’s negotiating leverage and revenue composition in advertising and sublicensing.
Bottom line - Kepler Cheuvreux views the Dutch sale as a financially constructive move that supports deleveraging and a concentrated Nordic strategy, leading the broker to upgrade the stock and nudge up its valuation despite an anticipated short-term negative free cash flow impact.