Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows a significant uptick in food-related hardship between October 2025 and February 2026, concentrated among lower-income, lower-educated households and families with young children. The bank links the worsening food insecurity to weakening consumer sentiment and reduced expectations of finding w…
U.S. banks reported a 3.6% rise in first-quarter profits to $80.5 billion, driven in part by renewed deposit growth and a small increase in provisions for potential loan losses, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. Overall asset quality remained favorable, though delinquencies in several loan categories showed mixed movements.
An unofficial draft reported by Iranian state television suggests maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could resume normal operations within one month of a finalized US-Iran interim agreement. The report leaves open whether the draft is recent and whether the United States has accepted the terms; oil markets reacted with a near 5% plunge i…
Consumer prices in Brazil rose 0.62% in the first half of May from the previous month, outpacing analyst projections and pushing annual inflation to 4.64%, above the central bank's 4.5% tolerance ceiling. The rise was led by food and housing components. Policymakers face trade-offs as government support measures and a solid jobs market bolster spen…
Croatia's Supreme Court will meet on Wednesday to decide whether its handling of a decade-long dispute over Swiss franc loans will be public or private. The association representing about 30,000 franc borrowers says up to €700 million is at stake. A private proceeding could allow the court to hand down a verdict immediately, a decision that could a…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf reiterated the bank's commitment to a 2% inflation target while declining to state whether that would necessitate a rate increase at the ECB's upcoming meeting. Speaking in Dublin, Makhlouf said policymakers will act as required to meet the target and will base decisions on incoming ev…
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 9 basis points to 6.65% in the week ended May 22, reaching its highest level since August 2025. Rising oil prices tied to the Iran war, higher consumer inflation readings and shifts in Treasury yields contributed to the increase. Mortgage applications fell sharply, and markets signal the potential for a …
The European Investment Bank is launching a pilot to explore whether independent credit ratings from ESMA-registered agencies can improve access to traditional bank lending for innovative European startups and scaleups supported by EIB venture debt. The first agreement, signed with Spanish SME-focused rater INBONIS, will run for 18 months under the…
The European Central Bank will take whatever steps are necessary to return inflation to its 2% target in the medium term, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said, addressing concerns after a recent jump in eurozone inflation linked to higher oil prices and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
The European Central Bank's Financial Stability Review highlights the risks that highly leveraged hedge fund strategies - notably cash-futures basis and duration trades - pose to the stability of regional government bond markets. While these arbitrage positions have bolstered liquidity, the ECB warned that leverage ratios of around 25 and the poten…
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the world could be forced to reduce consumption of oil and natural gas more sharply than it has to date. Logan highlighted constrained supplies, the role of inventory drawdowns in covering a large shortfall, and the pot…
After a nearly 11% slide in the first half of last year, the U.S. dollar has traded in a narrow band for roughly a year. Heightened inflation expectations driven by higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and a Federal Reserve perceived as more hawkish have increased the chances of a sustained dollar appreciation. Market participants say the Iran…
The European Central Bank has urged banks across the euro zone to step up cybersecurity investment in response to emerging artificial intelligence models that can detect software vulnerabilities. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, speaking to reporters, called for better understanding of these AI capabilities and for financial institutions to impl…
Leading brokerages broadly expect the S&P 500 to continue its advance into 2026, citing AI-driven momentum and robust corporate profits as offsetting forces to near-term disruption from the protracted Middle East conflict. Several firms raised index targets, with a cluster of forecasts in the 7,500-8,100 range. Forecasters also provided divergent r…
U.S. stock futures moved higher following a strong session for chipmakers that helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite close at record highs. Micron Technology surged, pushing its market value above $1 trillion as demand for high-end memory tied to artificial intelligence outpaced supply. Diplomatic movements around an extended ceasefire between th…
The Bank of Japan recorded a decline in net income for fiscal 2025 after rising policy rates raised the interest it pays on excess reserves. For the first time, the BOJ's interest payments on reserves exceeded the interest it earned from its government bond holdings, while the central bank also reduced its total assets as it scaled back bond purcha…
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan warned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains curtailed because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, global consumption of oil and liquefied natural gas may need to fall more substantially. Logan highlighted strained supplies, finite inventories, and limited near-term gains in U.S. oil output,…
The German Council of Economic Experts has lowered its growth projection for Germany, blaming the Middle East conflict, rising energy costs and shifts in U.S. trade policy. The panel now forecasts 0.5% growth for the current year, down from a 0.9% projection issued in November, and 0.8% for 2027. Inflation is expected to rise in 2026 before easing …
In its biannual Financial Stability Report, the European Central Bank cautioned that the Iran war and persistent trade tensions pose risks to euro area growth and fiscal stability. Markets have largely discounted these threats, keeping equity valuations high and borrowing costs low, but the ECB warned that a sustained energy shock or a loss of conf…
A Reuters poll of 14 analysts conducted May 19-26 projects that European stocks will post only modest gains through the end of the year, with the STOXX 600 forecast at 645 points - roughly a 2.6% increase from current levels. The survey highlights the economic drag from the Iran war, the potential for ECB rate hikes amid rising energy prices, and E…
The outlook for Australia’s major banks has deteriorated as a combination of slower mortgage lending, increased loan-loss provisions and further interest rate increases prompt investors to reassess the sector. Once favoured for steady dividends and strong property-market exposure, the Big Four have seen share prices underperform since late February…
Former Federal Reserve executive Donald Kohn told central bank peers that supply-shock-driven inflation and growing public debt raise the risk that politicians will seek to blame and pressure central banks. Speaking at a BOJ-hosted conference in Tokyo, Kohn argued these forces make independence more vital even as they increase incentives for short-…
Speaking in Tokyo, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said policymakers should concentrate on the growing risk of inflation driven by higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. He argued that the potential inflationary impact outweighs the risk of a deteriorating labor market, favored neutral forward guidance, and said…
Thailand's housing market recorded higher transaction volumes in the first quarter of 2026, supported by government stimulus and easing lending conditions, but gains in market value were modest and the outlook is fragile. The Government Housing Bank warned that rising energy costs tied to the Middle East war, subdued domestic demand and weaker fore…
Global equity indices pushed higher on renewed optimism around AI and the prospect of a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen key shipping lanes. Central bankers, however, cautioned that recent energy disruptions have lasting inflationary consequences, prompting some officials to argue for further rate action even if a peace deal is reached.
