Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
902 total articles
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Federal Reserve could enact several additional interest rate reductions in 2026 if inflation demonstrably returns to the central bank's 2% objective. He cautioned that a recent softer consumer price reading was influenced by base effects and pointed out that services inflation remains high, urging poli…
U.S. homebuilder confidence fell in February as high land and construction costs, elevated house prices relative to incomes and scarce lots keep many potential buyers sidelined. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped one point to 36, remaining below the 50 threshold for a 22nd consecutive month, while bui…
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Tuesday the Trump administration is considering adjustments to how broad steel and aluminum tariffs are applied to ease compliance burdens on businesses, while keeping the primary metals duties intact. The potential changes respond to complaints from companies and pressure from trading partners, though …
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has proposed eliminating the country's long-standing prime lending rate as a reference in financial contracts and replacing it with its policy rate. A SARB discussion paper argues the prime rate has become largely administrative, citing its fixed 350 basis point spread above the policy rate since 2001. The prim…
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that the Fed could enact "several more" interest rate cuts in 2026 if inflation demonstrably returns to the central bank's 2% target. He cautioned that recent weak headline inflation partly reflected base effects and stressed services inflation remains "not tame," while noting good…
Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices rose 2.3% year over year in January, down from 2.4% in December. A sharp decline in gasoline prices was the main driver of the slowdown, while core measures excluding food and energy held near recent levels and shelter costs continued to climb at a slower pace.
Canada's Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% year over year in January, down slightly from December's 2.4% reading. A steep drop in gasoline prices was the main factor in the headline slowdown, while core measures excluding gasoline held steady at 3.0%. Shelter inflation eased to 1.7%, the first sub-2.0% print in nearly five years.
The National Bank of Romania kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50% in its February meeting. Policymakers are set to publish the quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, which will update inflation projections. The bank signalled no major near-term change to its inflation outlook and reiterated expectations that inflation will drop sharpl…
U.S. stock index futures fell modestly Tuesday as investors returned from a long weekend worried that artificial intelligence could upend business models in software, brokerage and logistics sectors. Tech names led declines while futures tracked losses across major indexes. Markets also focused on corporate earnings and a key inflation report that …
Kevin Warsh, nominated to lead the Federal Reserve, has argued for a materially smaller central bank balance sheet. But analysts and economists say the Fed’s present operating framework and the banking system’s demand for reserves make a significant contraction difficult without substantial regulatory and operational changes - moves that would take…
After four months of declines the U.S. dollar may be ready for a pause or modest rebound as a mix of political and economic developments eases previous pressures. Market positioning and derivatives flows show investors hedging against further dollar falls, while some strategists turn more constructive on the currency given improving U.S. growth pro…
A nonprofit organization and two Washington residents filed suit in federal court seeking to halt the Trump administration’s proposed overhaul of East Potomac Park, including the century-old public golf course. Plaintiffs say the administration’s move to terminate a long-term lease and pursue reconstruction violates a congressional act from 1897 an…
The UK unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, the highest level since January 2021, renewing market and analyst expectations that the Bank of England may begin cutting interest rates in March. A range of major banks and economic research firms point to weakening hiring, falling payrolls and moderating wage growth as the main drivers behind forecasts fo…
Erste Group expects the National Bank of Romania to keep its policy rate at 6.50% at the upcoming February meeting. The forecast notes a modest upward revision to NBR’s inflation outlook for the short-to-medium term, with core inflation rising more than previously projected. Erste does not anticipate the first rate cut until May 2026, attributing r…
A monthly Bank of America survey of 190 asset managers finds growing conviction that fiscal stimulus in Germany is filtering into macro data and helping lift the regional growth outlook. Respondents expressed increased preference for German equities, greater optimism for European cyclicals and small caps, and concentrated sector overweights in heal…
U.S. equity futures traded around the flatline as markets entered a holiday-shortened week with key economic data and corporate results looming. Investors continued a rotation from high-growth technology into defensive sectors amid scrutiny of AI-related spending, while Brent crude and gold eased ahead of U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva and a slate of U.…
A monthly Bank of America poll of global fund managers shows rising optimism about a global boom and strong earnings growth expectations, even as a record share of respondents worry that companies are overextending on capital spending. Cash holdings ticked up slightly, while investors remain heavily overweight equities and commodities and significa…
Annual growth in regular average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, slowed to 4.2% in the three months to December 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier, down from 4.4% in the three months to November, the Office for National Statistics reported. The data feed into Bank of England monitoring of inflation, while investors move to price …
A finance ministry estimate reviewed by Reuters indicates Japan could see annual bond issuance rise to as much as 38 trillion yen in the fiscal year beginning April 2029, a 28% increase from the 29.6 trillion yen projected for fiscal 2026. The projection reflects higher debt-servicing costs driven by rising long-term yields and greater social welfa…
The U.S. dollar held recent gains in light trading as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's minutes and advance U.S. GDP figures later in the week. The yen pared losses after disappointing Japanese growth data raised expectations of more government stimulus. The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped amid central bank caution and upcoming polic…
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting show the board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% because it concluded inflationary pressures had become more persistent and widespread and that financial conditions were no longer sufficiently restrictive. The central bank said it lacked a "high degree of confidence in any…
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February board meeting show policymakers judged a 25 basis point increase to 3.85% was required to avoid persistently high inflation, but they stopped short of committing to a specific future trajectory for the cash rate. The board highlighted stronger-than-expected domestic demand, a resilient labour ma…
Havana's long-lived fleet of vintage gasoline cars is yielding ground to electric vehicles as Cuba confronts a severe fuel shortfall. With U.S. moves to cut off oil shipments from Venezuela and warnings against other suppliers, the island has stepped up fuel rationing and is relying on state-run electric transport and private operators to keep peop…
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the appointment of Janice Charette as Canada’s chief trade negotiator to the United States. Charette will serve as a senior advisor to the prime minister and to Dominic LeBlanc on the upcoming joint review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), a pact that protects much of Canada’s exports from U.…
Ecuador's shrimp industry reported a 20% year-on-year increase in export revenues for 2025, reaching $8.4 billion and surpassing oil as the nation's largest export. Industry leaders attribute the record to sustained investment in aquaculture and a transitory advantage from U.S. tariff adjustments tied to India, while China remains the primary marke…
