Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,192 total articles
Barclays reports that euro area economic activity remains resilient, driven by external demand and a pick-up in German momentum despite weak domestic demand and a stagnating French economy. National inflation readings for August and rising producer prices suggest headline inflation will climb, reinforcing ECB communication that points toward an add…
U.S. stock index futures declined early Monday after military strikes between the U.S. and Iran restarted, driving oil prices higher and amplifying worries about persistent inflation. Comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and a marked rise in the probability of a September rate hike added to market unease ahead of the U.S. employment …
Andrew Bailey, chair of the Financial Stability Board and Bank of England governor, warned G20 finance and central bank officials that advanced AI models pose a rising threat to global financial stability. In a letter sent on Monday to regulators, Bailey highlighted recent incidents where models from firms including OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta Platf…
Barclays economists say Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks were markedly hawkish, prompting the bank to forecast a 25-basis-point rate increase in September and another in December. Warsh highlighted a stronger economy, labor markets consistent with full employment, healthy consumption and easy credit conditions, and placed…
Official figures show the Turkish economy expanded 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The reading was below estimates from a recent poll and marks the fourth consecutive quarter of slowing growth. Agriculture, forestry and fishing, and information and communication…
Britain’s energy regulator has approved a 3.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in household energy bills from October, a move that is substantially larger than Barclays’ earlier 0.5% projection. Barclays says the revision does not materially alter its central inflation outlook — with headline CPI still expected to peak at 3.1% year-on-year in October — but…
A congested week of events - from central bankers shifting from Jackson Hole to the G20 in Asheville, to key U.S. labour data and central bank decisions in Canada and New Zealand - leaves traders with little breathing room. Markets will watch Treasury market dynamics, talk of 'dollar debasement', inflation readings across the euro zone and the U.S.…
Central bankers from Europe departed the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium unsettled about recent U.S. Treasury actions and concerned those moves signal a willingness in Washington to take atypical steps that could unsettle global markets. Officials said Federal Reserve representatives sought to reassure counterparts that the Fed would honor…
Fresh military exchanges in and around the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent oil prices back above $90 a barrel and pressured equity markets across Asia and Europe. U.S. strikes on missile launchers on Larak island, a retaliatory attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, and reports of Iran attempting to lay naval mines contributed to shipping disruptions and h…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a coordinated strategy of weekly secondary sanctions aimed at deterring global financial institutions from facilitating transactions linked to Iran. The administration is prioritizing the banking sector and signaling potential exclusion from the dollar-clearing system for noncompliant entities.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled that Washington will push G20 finance leaders to evaluate their commercial agreements with China, aiming to reduce global trade disparities and encourage a shift toward internal demand. With Chinese exports currently viewed as unsustainable, the administration plans to leverage multilateral dialogu…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided a measured assessment of recent foreign exchange dynamics, emphasizing that the Japanese yen’s latest depreciation remains well managed. The remarks align Washington and Tokyo on prioritizing predictable market conditions over reactive intervention as global financial leaders prepare for policy discuss…
Iran on Sunday affirmed it will not rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing Tehran's control over a critical global energy artery as a six-month conflict with the United States persists. Conflicting accounts about the status of commercial shipping, intensified economic measures from Washington, and parallel regional security and energy mov…
Iceland held a referendum on Aug. 29 on whether to resume talks with the European Union, with the electorate closely split. Campaign themes centered on the cost of living, high interest rates, sovereignty and control of fishing waters. A Gallup poll shortly before voting showed a small majority opposed reopening negotiations. If approved, a 'yes' w…
Goldman Sachs published a research note finding that U.S. inflation expectations have remained broadly anchored even after more than five years of above-target inflation. Using survey analysis and an adapted memory-based model, the bank draws three core lessons about the formation and persistence of expectations and projects inflation to return to …
China's extensive crude inventories, built up over recent years, have enabled Beijing to sharply cut oil imports amid the Iran war. The stockpiles - estimated between 1 billion and 1.4 billion barrels - provided roughly 120 days of import cover and supported a 23% decline in crude arrivals between March and July versus the prior year. At the same t…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended late-July U.S. intervention to buy yen, telling Senator Elizabeth Warren that volatile yen markets can trigger forced unwinds that destabilize global markets and ultimately raise borrowing costs for U.S. families and businesses. He said the action used existing Exchange Stabilization Fund foreign-currency a…
Citigroup's global head of macro and asset allocation, Dirk Willer, warned that a forceful U.S. Treasury effort to cap long-term yields below 5.30% could ultimately create downward pressure on the dollar as investors seek assets not subject to central bank limits. Despite recent Treasury support for long-duration bonds, rising term premium and broa…
Canada ran a budget deficit of C$370 million for the first three months of the 2026/27 fiscal year, a sharp improvement from a C$6.28 billion shortfall a year earlier. Year-to-date revenues rose 9.8%, while program expenses increased 4.3%. Public debt expanded 6.1%, driven by higher effective interest rates on marketable bonds and inflation-linked …
Canada's economy expanded at an annualized 3.3% rate in the second quarter, data show, reversing an earlier weak start to the year after Statistics Canada revised first-quarter output to a 0.3% gain. The strength outpaced the Bank of Canada's roughly 2.5% forecast for the period and tempers near-term pressure for monetary easing, though officials r…
Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eased on Friday following a technology-led advance driven by Nvidia’s upbeat outlook the day before. Markets were focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first speech at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, seeking any guidance on how policy-makers might respond to mixed inflation readings and …
A small but growing cohort of small businesses is experimenting with prediction market platforms to protect against narrowly defined financial risks tied to promotions, labor rules and commodity-linked costs. Trading firms, a market operator and a specialty finance startup have collaborated to craft event contracts that pay out when specified outco…
European equities made modest gains on Friday as French stocks recovered from a prior session selloff and investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The pan-European STOXX 600 climbed 0.6% to 655.64 at 0708 GMT, with France's CAC 40 leading regional advances. Energy stocks, the week's weakest sector,…
As markets emerge from the late-summer lull, a sequence of interconnected risks is poised to test investor resilience in September. Persistent tensions linked to the war with Iran have amplified energy-price volatility and inflationary pressure, while major central bank meetings in the same week - alongside a potentially massive AI-related IPO and …
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.66% for the week ending August 27, 2026, essentially unchanged from the prior week. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.98%, a modest uptick from 5.95% a week earlier. Freddie Mac's chief economist points to a resilient economy and rising household incomes, while incre…
