Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,108 total articles
A French servicemember died and six others were wounded after a drone assault on a Kurdish military base in the Erbil region of Iraq. President Emmanuel Macron named the soldier and confirmed the death, while the French defense ministry said the forces at the base are part of an international operation training Iraqi units against Islamic State.
Eurozone industrial production dropped 1.5% in January, marking the weakest reading since December 2024, according to analysis from ING. The decline followed a 0.6% fall in December and was driven by contractions in Germany, Italy and Spain, with a pronounced drop in Ireland amplifying the headline result. ING warned that renewed conflict in the Mi…
The pound fell for a fourth consecutive session against the dollar after UK data showed unexpected stagnation in January and long-term inflation expectations remained elevated. Risk aversion tied to the conflict in the Middle East supported the US dollar, while markets reassessed the timing and direction of Bank of England policy in light of an ene…
A Reuters poll of economists conducted March 9-13 finds overwhelming expectation that the European Central Bank will leave its deposit rate at 2% through 2026, despite renewed inflation pressure after a sharp jump in oil prices tied to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Forecasts for headline inflation and short-term yields have moved higher, and markets…
UBS Global Wealth Management argues that Europe is more resilient to a potential energy shock stemming from recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, citing limited Middle East gas dependence, much lower spot gas prices than in 2022, and structural adjustments since the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The bank cautions, however, that severe scenarios could s…
Deutsche Bank has modelled two energy-price scenarios tied to the Middle East conflict and warned that a larger shock could push the euro zone into recession in 2026 and compel the European Central Bank to reconsider its monetary easing trajectory. The bank projects varied impacts on inflation and GDP depending on oil and gas price trajectories, an…
U.S. futures opened muted as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed crude toward $100 a barrel and raised concerns about broader supply-chain disruptions and inflation. Traders monitored strains in the private credit market, weighed incoming U.S. economic data for January and the fourth-quarter GDP revision, and priced in a slower path for F…
In the week through March 11 global equity funds recorded their largest net withdrawals since mid-December as concerns about oil supply disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran heightened inflation and growth worries. Safe-haven flows into money markets and short-term bonds contrasted with sales of equities, high-yield debt and gold f…
Eurostat data show industrial production across the 21 euro-area countries declined 1.5% in January from the prior month and fell 1.2% year-on-year, missing economists' expectations for growth. The decline underscores persistent stagnation in European industry, with output still beneath 2021 levels, and comes as a recent spike in oil and natural ga…
Two major shareholder proxy advisory firms have advised investors that Starbucks could be underestimating the financial and reputational risks tied to ongoing labor disputes. The firms point to strikes, a recent $38.9 million settlement in New York City, the dissolution of a board committee focused on labor relations, and continued union organizing…
Rising oil prices tied to hostilities in and around the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with market reactions and early signs of shifts in consumer behaviour, are reducing investor confidence that Kevin Warsh could rapidly guide the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. With inflation already above target and oil pushing headline prices higher, official…
Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's meeting this week for guidance on how the recent escalation in the Iran conflict and the associated jump in oil prices could alter the timeline for interest-rate reductions. With U.S. crude climbing toward $120 a barrel and equity volatility rising, market bets on multiple rate cuts this year hav…
New yuan lending in China dropped to 900 billion yuan in February, a steep fall from January’s 4.71 trillion yuan and below the median analyst projection of 979 billion yuan. The decline reflects subdued credit demand amid a prolonged property downturn and cautious corporate behaviour, even as policymakers reaffirm a moderately loose monetary stanc…
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group will carefully manage funding profiles when extending new loans as Japanese banks consider supporting projects under Tokyo's $550 billion U.S. investment package. State-backed agencies JBIC and NEXI are set to provide equity, loans and loan guarantees, while MUFG's CFO warned that a rapid rise in long-term lending cou…
President Donald Trump told fellow G7 leaders during a virtual meeting that Iran was 'about to surrender' and that a recent U.S. operation had removed a major threat. He also said Iran's internal leadership was so unsettled it could not formally capitulate. The comments come amid continuing regional strikes, the downing of a U.S. KC-135 tanker, and…
A U.S. Air Force KC-135 aerial refueling tanker crashed in western Iraq on March 12, killing four of the six crew members aboard. Two personnel remain the subject of active rescue operations. U.S. Central Command said the cause of the incident is under investigation and confirmed the aircraft was not lost to hostile or friendly fire.
Global oil benchmarks remain elevated amid continuing U.S.-Israeli military action in Iran, pushing Brent above $100 a barrel and contributing to softer U.S. equity futures. Traders and analysts are watching inflation gauges closely - including the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index - while gold struggles as the dollar strengthens. …
Analysts at Wolfe Research warn that higher gasoline costs could significantly weaken the consumer stimulus expected from the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). Using a baseline where gasoline averages $3.10 per gallon in 2025, a sustained 20% rise would produce roughly a $65 billion annual drag on consumer budgets, offsetting about one-third of the $1…
The war in the Middle East has sharply lifted energy prices, forcing global central banks into a difficult policy juncture. With major monetary authorities from the United States to Europe, Japan and Brazil set to meet in the coming days, markets are re-pricing the likelihood and timing of rate moves amid renewed inflation concerns and weaker growt…
The European Central Bank convenes next week amid a renewed energy shock tied to war in the Middle East. Surging oil and gas prices have pushed traders to bet on at least one rate hike this year, complicating an outlook that weeks ago suggested policymakers were in a comfortable position. The bank must weigh uncertain energy price trajectories, the…
Markets are wrestling with the prospect that a protracted conflict in the Middle East will keep oil near $100 per barrel, prompting intensified selloffs in bonds and equities, stronger US dollar demand and a reassessment of central bank rate paths. With leaders of Iran, Israel and the United States remaining defiant as the confrontation nears two w…
BofA Global Research has revised its timetable for Bank of England rate cuts, moving its initial forecast from March to June and now projecting quarter-point reductions in June and September. The change reflects a renewed inflation risk driven by higher energy prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Several other major banks have also…
Japan appears to have less capacity to stabilise the yen now than during previous episodes when authorities stepped into markets to counter speculative selling. This time, officials say the currency's slide is driven more by safe-haven demand for dollars and higher crude prices linked to the Iran war, rather than by the large, speculative short pos…
A quarterly Reuters poll conducted from March 2 to 12 found that Chinese home prices are projected to drop 4.0% in 2026 - a sharper fall than prior forecasts - then level off in 2027 before inching up 0.5% in 2028. The survey highlights ongoing strain in the property sector, weak investment and sales this year, and analysts' calls for stronger poli…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has proposed rules that would require banks to maintain a baseline of cash services, including more ATMs and lower withdrawal fees. The plan, opened for public consultation last month, aims to protect vulnerable groups and payment-system resilience but has been met with strong opposition from banks and industry group…
