Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,107 total articles
A poll of economists this week finds the Bank of England likely to delay a rate cut previously expected in March, instead trimming Bank Rate to 3.50% in either April or June. Surging energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict have elevated inflation risks, pushed up gilt yields and left market participants split on the timing and scale of easing…
Canada recorded a larger-than-expected merchandise trade deficit in January as exports fell more steeply than imports. A pronounced drop in motor vehicle and parts shipments, along with weaker metal and non-metallic mineral product exports, drove the fall. Higher energy exports partly mitigated the decline but were not enough to prevent the deficit…
German 10-year government bond yields climbed toward levels not seen since October 2023 as investors increased expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes. The move was driven by inflation concerns related to conflict in the Middle East and a rise in oil prices amid fears of disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. inflation projections for December 2026 and cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast after revising oil-price assumptions higher amid the war with Iran. The bank now expects Brent to average $98 in March and April before easing to $71 by late 2026, and warns that sustained oil-price increases and geopolitical uncertainty could…
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey left its policy stance unchanged, relying on prior adjustments to its interest rate corridor to deliver an effective 300 basis points of monetary tightening. The bank suspended one-week repo auctions, raising the marginal funding cost for commercial lenders to the overnight lending facility at 40%, a move …
The European Commission urged the United States to regard the European Union as an ally in confronting global manufacturing overcapacity, after the U.S. administration initiated investigations into unfair trade practices involving the EU and 15 other trading partners. Brussels said it shares Washington's concerns about structural overcapacity but d…
Andrew Bailey, chair of the Financial Stability Board and governor of the Bank of England, called on governments to accelerate reforms to international and domestic payment systems. Speaking at an FSB payments summit, he cautioned that persistent frictions in cross-border payments risk fragmenting the global financial system and undermining growth …
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said military operations involving Iran are expected to take weeks rather than months and outlined a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) swap to ease near-term market pressures. Wright described a release of 172 million barrels from the SPR in exchange for 200 million barrels to be returned within a year, and indica…
The European Commission pushed back against assertions that the bloc fuels global manufacturing overcapacity after the United States initiated probes into unfair trade practices that include the EU among 16 trading partners. A Commission spokesperson said the EU shares concerns about structural excess capacity but rejects being the source of the pr…
India's consumer price inflation rose to 3.21% year-on-year in February, supported by higher costs for food, personal care items and sharp gains in silver and gold. The rate remains below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target and inside its 2%-6% tolerance band, but rising crude oil due to the Middle East conflict and strains in cooking fuel supply…
Bank of America analysts expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye to leave its policy rate unchanged at 37% at the Monetary Policy Council meeting. The forecast comes as foreign exchange reserves have fallen by about $21 billion through Monday, excluding gold valuation effects, and as oil price dynamics tied to Middle East tensions pose a…
British exports of goods to the United States declined 10.3% to £59.2 billion last year after a series of tariffs were introduced by Washington. Most product groups recorded lower values, with notable decreases in cars, clothing, footwear and works of art. Analysts warn additional US tariffs could push trade flows down further.
Swissmem, the Swiss industry group, rejected U.S. assertions that Switzerland sought to build artificial industrial overcapacity. The group said the accusation is unfounded, pointed to the absence of import tariffs on industrial goods, and urged the Swiss government to continue tariff negotiations with the United States while defending Swiss manufa…
European Commission competition chief Teresa Ribera said EU governments may be allowed to deploy state aid to support energy-intensive companies facing sharply higher electricity costs after oil and gas prices rose in the wake of the Iran war. Ribera also confirmed the Commission is assessing a recent policy change by Meta affecting third-party AI …
Bank of America says higher global oil prices are improving Brazil's current account and terms of trade, boosting fiscal receipts via royalties, taxes and dividends. The bank cautions these windfalls are uneven and volatile, and domestic inflation would rise only if Petrobras adjusts local fuel prices. BofA keeps its forecast for a 50 basis point S…
The U.S. Senate moved toward approving legislation designed to increase the pace of affordable housing construction across the country. Backed by Senators Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren, the bill proposes a mix of incentives, regulatory shortcuts and financing changes intended to address an estimated 4 million-home deficit driven by high interest r…
A senior European Parliament trade committee chair said the EU should only accept new U.S. tariffs that reproduce the substance of the agreement reached in Scotland last year, after Washington launched Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices. The lawmaker said the investigations were anticipated but do not yet signal U.S. com…
Global oil benchmarks climbed back above key psychological levels as attacks on vessels and facilities near a strategic waterway south of Iran intensified supply concerns. U.S. equity futures slid, while gold steadied amid inflation worries tied to higher energy costs. Adobe prepares to report quarterly results and oil major Shell released annual f…
Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75% on March 17, according to a majority of economists polled. Recent rupiah weakness tied to the Middle East war and concerns over fiscal credibility and central bank independence have constrained the central bank’s ability to move to an accommodative stance.
Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for Bank of England rate cuts for the second time this month, pointing to renewed inflationary pressure from rising energy prices across Europe. The bank now expects a series of cuts later this year and into 2027, while other major lenders have similarly adjusted their timetables as conflict-linked energy spik…
U.S. stock futures fell as crude oil climbed back above $100 a barrel following reports of attacks on tankers in Iraqi waters attributed to Iran. The spike in oil intensified inflation worries, prompted forecasters to delay expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, and amplified scrutiny of private credit. Traders also weighed new U.S. trade probes and c…
Fresh supply shocks from the Middle East have amplified upside risks to inflation in Japan, prompting the Bank of Japan to weigh faster interest-rate normalization. While an April rate increase is a possibility, sources say the conflict also raises the chance of a global slowdown that could undercut Japan’s tentative recovery and force a reassessme…
Iran has escalated attacks on commercial shipping in Gulf waters, including explosive-boat strikes that left two fuel tankers burning in Iraqi waters and forced oil port operations to stop. Oman cleared vessels from its main export terminal. The actions pushed Brent back above $100 and sent regional and global equity futures lower, while bond marke…
Glendon Capital Management has accused private credit managers, including Blue Owl, of understating losses in their loan books and warned that a marked correction in debt markets may be imminent. The claim, made in a presentation cited in a recent report, says funds have 'misrepresented' loss rates and are holding greater losses than disclosed. The…
ANZ Research cautions that while India enters the current energy price shock with "high growth and low inflation," a sustained spike in oil and gas prices would test the country's financial buffers. The report highlights potential losses for oil marketing companies (OMCs), rising subsidy burdens for the government and weakening household savings th…
