Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,108 total articles
A U.S. federal judge has voided subpoenas the Justice Department issued to Federal Reserve Board officials that sought documents connected to Chair Jerome Powell. The ruling states the subpoenas seemed designed to coerce Powell into changing his policy stance or stepping down, and found the government's evidence thin and unpersuasive. Powell has li…
Farmers in the United States and Canada are confronting a substantial shortage of fertilizer and sharp price increases after disruptions in the Persian Gulf disrupted global trade routes. Industry groups and agricultural organizations warn that constrained nitrogen supplies, interrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and thin dealer inventor…
The U.S. Department of State has announced a reward of up to $10 million through its Rewards for Justice program for information leading to the identification of senior leaders who command and direct elements of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its component branches. The move reiterates U.S. characterizations of the IRGC as cent…
China’s central bank eliminated a 20% reserve requirement on foreign-exchange forward contracts as it seeks to slow a sharp rally in the yuan that has pressured exporters. The move, effective March 2, follows a near three-year high for the currency and record forex inflows, and is paired with a softer-than-expected daily trading reference to curb a…
Elon Musk has initiated another round of personnel reductions at xAI, prompting several co-founders to leave as he voiced dissatisfaction with the startup's coding division. The moves follow a management reorganization ahead of a planned initial public offering and internal audits conducted by staff from SpaceX and Tesla.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani circulated a memo to state lawmakers proposing a near-90% reduction in the state's estate tax exemption - from just over $7 million to $750,000 - alongside an increase in the top estate tax rate from 16% to 50%. The proposal is one item among nearly a dozen revenue options offered to help close a $5.4 billion budg…
Rising oil prices linked to the conflict in Iran are prompting African policymakers to pause or reverse recent interest-rate cuts, threaten productivity in sectors such as mining and agriculture, and place pressure on foreign-exchange reserves and currencies across the continent. Several central banks that had been easing are reassessing policy ami…
China's foreign minister welcomed encouraging signals from the Netherlands' recently formed government during a Friday phone call with his Dutch counterpart, highlighting a desire to deepen communication and restore normal economic and trade exchanges between companies following recent bilateral friction tied to a corporate seizure in October 2025.
A Reuters poll of 33 economists conducted March 10-13 found unanimous expectation that the Bank of Canada will keep its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, with a strong majority forecasting no rate rises through 2026. Economists said Canada’s softer economy and sluggish labour and housing markets, together with trade uncertainty, make a near-term…
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed that Havana is engaged in talks with the Trump administration aimed at resolving bilateral disputes. Díaz-Canel emphasized that such negotiations are lengthy and require the right conditions and willingness to proceed. The announcement comes amid heightened U.S. rhetoric about Cuba's future and an ongoing…
Morgan Stanley anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, maintaining an easing bias even as recent rises in oil prices push up headline inflation forecasts. The bank expects the Fed to show an unchanged dot plot, project one rate cut this year and one next year, and record three dissents in favor of a …
Consumer confidence in the United States softened in early March, with the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index sliding to 55.5 from 56.6 in February. The decline coincided with a spike in oil and gasoline prices following the onset of conflict in the Middle East, and households reported weaker expectations for their personal finances.
Brazil’s Finance Ministry slightly increased its inflation projection for the year after adjusting for a higher-than-expected average oil price tied to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The update, issued ahead of next week’s central bank policy meeting, assumes the oil shock will be temporary but nonetheless shifts near-term inflation and feder…
Switzerland will continue to negotiate under its existing mandate to finalise a tariff agreement with the United States, Economy Minister Guy Parmelin said, as Washington begins trade investigations into excess industrial capacity and forced labour claims affecting 16 trading partners, including Switzerland. Bern is working to formalise a tariff de…
Goldman Sachs has reduced its near-term growth outlook for Japan, trimming real GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as higher projected commodity costs weigh on the economy. The bank also lifted its 2026 core consumer price index projection, while noting that a government fuel price cap contained part of the inflationary impulse. The firm continues to …
Global markets are responding to the Middle East conflict with reactions that echo the initial market shock after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, most notably through a sharp rise in oil prices and a stronger dollar. But differences are apparent across other asset classes - from European gas and sovereign bonds to gold and equity volatility - re…
January's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose in line with forecasts, with core measures steady, even as the Commerce Department's second estimate trimmed fourth-quarter GDP growth. Markets responded with gains in U.S. stocks, modest declines in Treasury yields and a firmer dollar. Commentary from market strategists highlighted…
France and Italy have initiated discussions with Iran aimed at securing safe transit for European vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people briefed on the matter. The talks are intended to negotiate a guarantee of safe passage so energy shipments from the Gulf can resume. Shipping through the narrow passage has dropped to negligible…
Consumer spending rose 0.4% in January, matching December's gain, as the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index held steady at a 0.4% monthly increase. The combination of firmer underlying inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have lifted fuel costs is reinforcing views that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to…
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Iran’s newly selected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is wounded and likely disfigured. President Donald Trump said he believes Khamenei is alive but “damaged.” Khamenei has not been seen publicly by Iranians since his selection and his first remarks, read on state television, vowed to keep the Stra…
On March 13, U.S. stock index futures inched higher after data showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose in January in line with monthly forecasts while annual PCE came in slightly below expectations. At the same time, a second Commerce Department estimate reported quarterly GDP growth that undershot economists' estimates. Marke…
Money flows into emerging market bond funds declined in the week to March 11, while inflows to emerging market equity funds paused after five consecutive weeks of net buying. The shift follows the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, a spike in energy prices and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors to retreat from perceived risk ass…
Statistics Canada reported an unexpected net loss of 83,900 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.7%. Job losses spanned both goods-producing and services sectors, hit full-time and private sector roles hardest, and coincided with a rise in average hourly wages for permanent employees to 4.2%.
The United States rejected a draft proposal intended to guide reform of the World Trade Organization, saying the text was not sufficiently developed and contained unclear language. The U.S. objection, voiced in Geneva, means an agreement at the upcoming trade ministers meeting in Cameroon is unlikely because WTO decisions require consensus among al…
Summary: The recent jump in oil and gas prices after the outbreak of war with Iran has led some to draw parallels with the 2022 energy shock that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, argues the present episode differs in several systemically important ways - notably the potential scale of…
