Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
U.S. homebuilders are preparing for a difficult year as a mix of new tariffs, the Iran war and persistent inflation lift input costs and depress buyer activity. Companies are using incentives to protect sales, but analysts warn margin pressure may force further reductions in starts and earnings guidance as spring selling underperforms.
Canada's Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in March, up from 1.8% in February, driven principally by a historic monthly jump in gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, core inflation eased to 2.2% year-over-year. Food price gains and province-wide increases were also reported, while Statistics Canada and economists highlighted both base-ye…
Barclays' tracking model shows U.S. GDP growing at a 2.3% quarter-on-quarter annualized rate in the first quarter, a reading notably above the GDPNow estimate. The bank attributes much of the outperformance to the normalization of government spending after last year’s federal shutdown, and it retains multi-year growth forecasts while flagging softe…
Canada's annual consumer price index rose to 2.4% in March, with a 0.9% monthly increase led by a sharp jump in gasoline costs after crude oil shipments were disrupted by the Iran war. Transportation and grocery prices were the main contributors to the headline rise, while core inflation measures remained relatively stable.
Venezuela emerged as the focal point of optimism at recent IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, where renewed engagement with the IMF, rising oil prices and signs of improving diplomatic ties spurred investor interest in restructuring the country's large stock of defaulted debt. Delegates described packed briefings hosted by major banks, a…
Major institutional investors, organized in a Bondholder Working Group linked to the London Coalition on Sustainable Sovereign Debt, have proposed inserting contractual clauses into future sovereign bonds that would permit eligible emerging countries to suspend debt payments for up to 12 months during defined crises. The measure aims to provide pre…
The United States, serving as the G20 chair, announced it will host additional meetings in the coming weeks to address how the war in the Middle East is affecting food supplies and fertilizer flows. Finance ministers and central bank governors discussed the issue at a spring meeting on April 16, but stopped short of committing to a coordinated acti…
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the U.S. central bank, will appear before the Senate Banking Committee for a confirmation hearing where senators are expected to press him on his monetary policy views, commitment to Fed independence, and his actions during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The hearing comes amid partisan friction…
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s choice to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, has presented a suite of proposals that would reshape the central bank’s policy framework and institutional posture. His public remarks call for a shift in the Fed’s operating regime, lower policy rates, a reduced balance sheet, a narrowed scope of activ…
Investors enter the new trading week with attention fixed on the soon-to-expire ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, renewed pressure on oil prices and a packed calendar that includes a high-profile Federal Reserve confirmation hearing, preliminary U.S. business activity data and a broad slate of corporate earnings. Each development could affect in…
Two separate surveys reported a marked deterioration in British consumer sentiment in April, with measures dropping to levels not seen since mid-2023. The declines reflect growing anxiety over household budgets, job security and higher borrowing costs tied to recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Bank of America expects Turkey's central bank to maintain its effective funding rate at 40% when policymakers meet on April 22, though the decision is contested. The bank notes a binary choice for the monetary authority - keep the one-week repo at 37% with funding at the upper band or lift the repo to 40% - and says improving external conditions ma…
Five people familiar with the Bank of Japan's deliberations told Reuters the central bank is likely to refrain from raising interest rates at its meeting next week. Officials are said to prefer additional time to assess the economic and price effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict, although they may signal readiness to tighten policy as soon a…
Goldman Sachs analysts say the policy focus in Europe may shift from shielding consumers from high power bills to shoring up energy supply as the current crunch eases. The bank’s note dated Monday highlights sharp price rises where gas plants set power, observes uneven effects across utilities depending on hedging, and cautions government measures …
U.S. stock futures fell as reports emerged that American forces had seized an Iranian-flagged tanker and Iranian authorities said the Strait of Hormuz had been closed again in response to a U.S. blockade. Oil prices rose sharply but stayed below $100 a barrel. Corporate earnings and a major memory chip production announcement from SK Hynix provided…
Regulators in Australia and South Korea are monitoring Anthropic’s advanced AI model Mythos amid expert warnings that its high-level coding capabilities could be used to identify cybersecurity weaknesses and, in extreme scenarios, destabilise banking systems. Australian authorities including ASIC and APRA have signalled ongoing reviews and urged li…
Delegates from developing countries left this week’s IMF-World Bank meetings frustrated that a string of external shocks - most recently a war that pushed up oil and fertilizer costs - is reversing progress on debt, reform and poverty reduction. Officials and economists said the crisis is exposing the limits of existing tools and could prompt more …
The head of the Bank for International Settlements called for strengthened international cooperation on stablecoin regulation, saying divergent rules risk severe market fragmentation, regulatory arbitrage and potential threats to monetary and fiscal policy, financial stability and anti-money laundering efforts.
Global markets traded with muted activity as investors weighed renewed Middle East tensions against signs that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may continue. S&P 500 futures slipped modestly on light volumes, European futures fell more sharply, and oil held a mid-single-digit gain below the $100-a-barrel threshold. Political developments in Lo…
All 31 economists surveyed in mid-April expect Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate at 4.75% this week, with most abandoning earlier expectations for cuts as an Iran-related energy shock pushes inflation toward the top of the central bank's target range and pressures the rupiah. A majority of survey participants now see rates unchanged through…
U.S. equity markets have regained recent losses and pierced record highs as investors turn attention to an active week of corporate earnings. The surge follows easing U.S.-Iran tensions and a broader rally in technology names, though elevated oil prices, potential inflationary effects and rate-path uncertainty remain key concerns. Major reports fro…
China left its benchmark loan prime rates unchanged in April for the 11th consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%. Strong first-quarter GDP growth and a resurgence in factory-gate prices have reduced pressure for broad monetary easing, prompting policymakers to favor targeted measures over across-the-board…
On April 20, National Australia Bank said it expects to record credit impairment charges of A$706 million in the first half as it raises provisions amid concerns the Middle East conflict increases the likelihood of an Australian downside economic scenario. The bank also announced an accelerated after-tax software amortisation charge of A$949 millio…
Oil surged and U.S. equity futures weakened as conflicting developments over the Iran conflict and a fresh closure of the Strait of Hormuz unsettled investors. Early Asian trade saw Brent crude climb roughly 7% to $96.85 a barrel, S&P 500 futures drop about 0.9%, and the dollar strengthen after a recent slide.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stopped short of committing to a rate rise in April, citing uncertainty from the Iran conflict, yet he issued hawkish comments during international meetings that keep a policy tightening on the table. Markets pared back bets for an April move but still assign a high probability of a hike by June as the BOJ weighs i…
