Trade in agricultural produce, hydrocarbons and critical minerals has emerged as a central bargaining currency in talks between the United States and China, and these topics are set to reappear when President Donald Trump hosts President Xi Jinping in Washington next week. Below is a sector-by-sector readout of the issues likely to be discussed and what they mean for commodity flows.
Agriculture
Agricultural commodities remain among the largest U.S. exports to China, with soybeans alone accounting for a significant share. U.S. agricultural exports to China reached $29 billion in 2024, and soybeans have been a focal point of prior agreements. At the Busan summit in South Korea last year, China was reported by U.S. officials to have agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, according to a White House account. U.S. officials also say that during a subsequent presidential visit to Beijing in May, China agreed to add about $17 billion in purchases of other agricultural products.
Beijing has not publicly acknowledged those pledges, but it is nevertheless on track to meet the soybean purchase commitment. Delivering on the supplemental $17 billion in purchases would likely require treating agricultural imports differently from one remaining 10% tariff that still exists from the earlier trade war. Market participants and analysts expect that some tariff exemptions or waivers could be announced, especially after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on September 3 there could be announcements designed to incentivize U.S. agricultural sales to China. Sorghum and corn are mentioned as plausible candidates for renewed or expanded exports alongside soybeans, given their historical roles as sizeable U.S. agricultural shipments to China.
Energy
China has been a modest but uneven buyer of U.S. oil and gas over the past decade. Those imports largely stopped last year after Beijing imposed tariffs in the range of 10% to 15%. U.S. policymakers have been pushing for a restart of energy trade since the May visit to Beijing.
Media reports have indicated that energy-related tariffs might be bundled into a larger package of reciprocal tariff reductions flagged after the May summit. Such a package has been described as amounting to about $30 billion, though that package has not yet been implemented. If energy tariffs were removed as part of any agreement, U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas exports to China could resume; annual Chinese imports from the U.S. ranged roughly from $7.5 billion to $12 billion between the end of the previous trade war in 2020 and 2024.
However, analysts caution that the re-opening of Chinese purchases would not necessarily deliver a rapid or large windfall for U.S. LNG producers. Although spot imports of U.S. LNG to China stopped after the tariffs, Chinese buyers have continued to meet long-term purchase obligations with U.S. suppliers and then resell those cargoes on the market after taking delivery.
Sanctions
China has long been a major customer for Iranian and Russian crude oil, and U.S. policy over the years has included sanctions on refiners and other entities involved in that trade. In the run-up to the summit, Washington has raised the prospect of lifting certain sanctions while at the same time warning that other measures could be applied.
President Trump has said he would consider lifting some sanctions following his visit to Beijing, though the sanctions in question remain in place at this time. Separately, since August the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has overseen renewed efforts to impose secondary sanctions on banks that finance Iranian trade. Reports note that Chinese banks have been conspicuously absent from those secondary sanction actions so far.
Rare earths
China's dominance of rare earth production and its curbs on exports to the United States have been a prominent source of tension and were a key factor prompting talks this year. While more rare earth material is now reportedly flowing from China than during earlier restrictions, the issue remains unresolved for many sensitive industries.
U.S. firms in sectors such as aerospace and chipmaking continue to encounter difficulties gaining access to necessary rare earth materials. Some Chinese exporters are reluctant to ship to the U.S. out of concern about potential repercussions from Beijing should bilateral relations deteriorate again. The matter has been included on U.S. planning agendas, and U.S. officials have repeatedly urged Beijing to honour commitments to maintain the flow of these critical materials.
What this means for markets
The summit is likely to be closely watched by market participants focused on agricultural commodity prices, energy trade flows and the supply chains for critical minerals. Commitments or concrete tariff exemptions could remove some near-term uncertainty for exporters and buyers, but unresolved elements - including the scope of any sanction relief and whether firms in sensitive industries will obtain reliable access to rare earths - will keep some risks elevated.