On August 5, bodies were left strewn across a bloodied suburban railway platform in the Brovary district near Kyiv after a nocturnal missile barrage. Local officials say eight people were killed when a wave of Russian strikes mainly aimed at industrial facilities in the Brovary area also hit the Kvitnevyi railway platform. Ukrainian investigators concluded that the munition responsible for the railway strike was not Russia's principal short-range ballistic missile, the Iskander, but a less accurate missile originally developed as a target for air-defence training.
That reconfigured practice missile, identified by Ukrainian authorities as the RM48U, has been deployed in large numbers in recent months, official Ukrainian data shows. Military analysts at Ukraine's General Prosecutor's Office compiled figures indicating that RM48Us accounted for more than half of 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired at Ukraine in July and the early days of August.
The scale of the RM48U deployment has not been widely reported previously. The procurement and mass use of these training rockets helps explain how Russia has been able to intensify its aerial campaign over the summer without rapidly exhausting stocks of its more capable strike missiles such as the Iskander.
Ukraine finds itself highly exposed during a critical period because its supply of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors - its primary means of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles - is virtually exhausted, officials say. There is limited clarity about when fresh Patriot interceptors might become available, with some being redirected to U.S. forces and allied deployments in the Gulf rather than to Ukraine.
Moscow's defense ministry did not provide answers to queries about its use of RM48Us and other missiles in Ukraine. Russian authorities have repeatedly denied intentionally targeting civilians, maintaining that strikes are directed at military infrastructure. On August 5, Russia's defense ministry said it had struck a logistics center in Brovary that was being used to store drone components.
Analysts argue that firing large numbers of RM48Us serves two tactical objectives for Russia. It allows Russian forces to pressure and deplete any remaining Ukrainian interceptors while reserving higher-precision strike missiles - Iskanders and other systems such as KN-23s and hypersonic weapons - for later, possibly during winter. "Their use allows the Russians to husband the more capable missiles they have, the Iskanders, but also the KN-23s and the Zircons, for winter when they would want to really lean into their ballistic missile campaign," said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at RUSI.
The Ukrainian data supports that assessment. As RM48U attacks surged in July, the number of Iskanders recorded as fired dropped to 38 from more than 100 in the prior month. In July, Ukrainian on-the-ground analysis confirmed 158 ballistic and hypersonic strikes; of those, 87 were RM48Us. In the first eight days of August there were 70 Russian ballistic and hypersonic strikes, 36 of which were attributed to RM48Us.
Investigators in Ukraine have provided technical details about the RM48U's performance and effects. The RM designation stands for "raketa mishen" or "missile target." The missile follows a ballistic trajectory at high speeds, but Ukrainian prosecutors and military intelligence say it is less powerful and less accurate than the Iskander. Prosecutors reported that RM48Us deviate from intended targets by roughly 300 metres on average and that their warheads, upon detonation, scatter metal fragments over a wide area.
Forensic specialists examining the Brovary railway platform determined that the crater, metal fragments recovered at the scene, and the pattern of damage to the platform, trees and bodies were consistent with an RM48U strike. Volodymyr Bihun, head of Brovary's military administration, said the rail attack occurred shortly after midnight, and that several missiles also struck logistics facilities in the district. Commercial satellite imagery obtained from a satellite operator showed damage to a warehouse complex near the affected platform, with two plumes of smoke visible.
Ukraine's General Prosecutor's Office linked the RM48U's lower precision to a number of strikes in recent months that produced high civilian casualties, including the railway attack in Brovary. Reuters could not independently verify those forensic findings.
The increased use of RM48Us contributed to July being the month with the largest recorded number of ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired by Russia since the 2022 invasion, at least according to the strikes the Ukrainian office was able to confirm through on-the-ground analysis. The United Nations reports that at least 437 civilians were killed in Ukraine in July, marking the highest monthly civilian toll since the early phase of the invasion; it pointed to missile and drone strikes as a significant factor.
Civilian fatalities in Russia have also risen. The Conflict Intelligence Team, an open-source investigative group, said 327 civilians were killed in Russia in the first seven months of 2026, compared with 145 for the same period the prior year.
Operational details about the RM48U shed light on how it is launched. Ukrainian authorities say the munitions are fired from S-400 air-defence systems. The GUR military intelligence agency and the prosecutors describe the RM48U as a target rocket repurposed for offensive use.
Estimates of Russian stocks and production capacity provide further context for the shift in munition mix. A U.S.-based think-tank, the Institute for the Study of War, estimated Russia has roughly 100 Iskander missiles available compared with about 400 RM48Us. Ukraine's intelligence agency additionally notes smaller stocks of KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles and hypersonic systems such as the Zircon and Kinzhal.
RUSI's Kaushal assessed that Russia may produce about 750 Iskander missiles a year but that production is constrained by the availability of solid rocket motors. That production limitation provides an incentive to use cheaper and less accurate systems like the RM48U against lower-value or more vulnerable targets, including storage facilities and food warehouses, Ukrainian officials say have been targeted and heavily damaged in recent weeks.
Ukraine's GUR reported plans in Moscow to boost RM48U production to 480 missiles this year, up from 200 last year. The expansion, if realized, would allow for a continued emphasis on high-volume, lower-precision strikes.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has been pressing the United States and other Western partners to supply Patriot interceptors to replenish its air-defence capability. Officials say Patriot stocks have not kept pace with demand, in part because some munitions are being redirected elsewhere. A senior U.S. administration official said Washington has sufficient munitions to meet its strategic objectives but must prioritize protecting critical weapons systems and expand production. The U.S. is exploring possible pathways for defense industrial cooperation with Ukraine, the official added, although no decisions have been made.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy underscored the country's urgent need for Patriots hours after the August 5 strikes. "Ballistic missile interceptors could have saved the lives of those killed today," he said, referring to the casualties in the Kyiv region.
Public communications from Ukraine about numbers of incoming missiles and interceptions have also shifted. Last month the Ukrainian air force stopped publishing regular tallies of missiles fired and downed during enemy attacks, saying that continuing to release that data enabled Russia to leverage reports of Ukrainian air-defense performance for propaganda purposes.
The broader pattern on the ground indicates a new phase of the war in which both sides have intensified aerial operations while ground battle lines remain largely static. Russia has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles over the summer and is widely expected to target critical infrastructure such as heating and power systems as winter approaches. Ukraine, with a far smaller missile arsenal, has responded with hundreds of long-range drone strikes targeting Russian refineries, ships and ports.
As the campaign evolves, the substitution of RM48Us for higher-precision missiles has become a central operational detail. The practice preserves Russia's more capable strike weapons for future use but raises short-term risks for civilian populations and critical infrastructure, particularly energy and logistics facilities that underpin heating and power supply.
Key points
- RM48U training missiles, repurposed from air-defence target practice, accounted for more than half of 228 ballistic and hypersonic strikes in July and early August, according to Ukrainian prosecutors' data.
- Using RM48Us has allowed Russia to sustain a high tempo of missile strikes while reducing use of higher-precision missiles such as the Iskander, which dropped to 38 launches in July from more than 100 the prior month.
- The shift increases risk to civilian infrastructure and energy systems as less accurate warheads scatter fragments over wide areas and can deviate roughly 300 metres from intended targets, per Ukrainian investigators.
Risks and uncertainties
- Air-defence depletion - Ukraine's near-exhaustion of Patriot interceptors means greater vulnerability of critical infrastructure, especially energy and heating assets, to sustained missile strikes.
- Escalation of civilian harm - Wider deployment of lower-precision RM48Us has been linked by Ukrainian forensic teams to several high-casualty strikes, raising uncertainty about further civilian impacts if production and use increase.
- Production and stock variance - Russian plans to increase RM48U production and constraints on Iskander production due to rocket-motor bottlenecks introduce uncertainty about future munition mixes and targeting patterns.
Tags: missiles, Ukraine, Russia, defence, energy