By Hana Yamamoto
Market snapshot
Bitcoin recovered from intraday declines to trade modestly higher on Friday, yet its upside remained constrained by fresh macroeconomic signals and an uncertain U.S. regulatory backdrop. As of 17:30 ET (22:30 GMT) Bitcoin was last up 0.4% at $76,031.6.
Jobs report tightens Fed outlook
Crypto traders focused closely on the U.S. economic release for October as the monthly payrolls print landed well above expectations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000, easily exceeding the consensus estimate of 65,000. August and September payrolls were revised higher by a combined 84,000, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%.
With inflation still elevated above the Federal Reserve's long-run 2% target, the robust labor-market data was interpreted as evidence of continued strength in the economy. That interpretation increases the Federal Reserve's latitude to consider additional rate hikes, a dynamic that often exerts downward pressure on speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Reflecting that repricing, the CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a 25 basis point Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate increase on December 9 rising to nearly 79% after the jobs print, up from almost 73% beforehand. Higher expected policy rates typically make risk assets more sensitive to tightening, curbing appetite for leveraged or speculative positions.
Political uncertainty and legislative setbacks
Beyond monetary policy, investors in crypto are wrestling with the implications of a Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress. The market's early post-midterm optimism has given way to concern about what a Democratic majority might mean for digital assets.
Prominent Democratic figures, notably Senator Elizabeth Warren, have voiced skepticism toward crypto and advocated for stricter oversight. The article notes that Democratic positions contributed to the failure of the Clarity Act earlier this year, and some lawmakers have pressed for expanded anti-money laundering and risk-management requirements for the sector. Proponents within the industry argue such measures could stifle innovation, but the legislative outcome remains a source of uncertainty for market participants.
The historical record cited in the market discussion is mixed. The previous period with a Democrat-led Congress, between 2021 and 2022, coincided with a 43% drop in Bitcoin. That episode also overlapped with rising U.S. interest rates and a series of high-profile bankruptcies in the crypto industry - specifically Terra, FTX, and Celsius - complicating causal attribution for the price decline.
Mining activity and market flow
Additional downward pressure on Bitcoin emerged this week after miner Riot Platforms disclosed it had sold most of its Bitcoin holdings in the third quarter. The company's liquidations contributed to the supply-side dynamics that market participants track closely, particularly when combined with macro sensitivity to interest-rate expectations.
Price action across tokens
Bitcoin's recent weakness translated to a negative weekly trajectory; the token was on track to lose about 2% for the week, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline. The broader crypto complex largely moved in step with Bitcoin on Friday.
Ether, the second-largest crypto by market capitalization, rose 0.6% to $2,242.88 and was set for a weekly gain of about 0.1%. BNB increased by 1.0%, Solana climbed 0.7%, Cardano advanced 2.7%, while XRP fell 2.9%. Dogecoin inched up 1.6% on the session.
Memecoin fallout
Separately, the article highlights a dramatic decline in President Donald Trump's memecoin, $TRUMP. The token plunged more than 22% this week and hit a record low of $1.116 on Thursday before a small bounce on Friday. Launched around the time of the president's inauguration in early 2025, $TRUMP briefly reached a record high of $73.43 shortly after its debut and has since lost roughly 99% of its value.
Outlook and implications
The interplay of a stronger-than-expected labor market, elevated odds of further Fed tightening, legislative risk under a Democrat-led Congress, and notable miner selling combined this week to cap Bitcoin's recovery and weigh on broader crypto sentiment. Market participants are watching both macroeconomic indicators and policy developments closely, given their potential to influence liquidity, demand for risk assets, and the pace of innovation in the crypto sector.
Contributors: Ambar Warrick and Vahid Karaahmetovic