Commodities September 17, 2026 09:40 PM

Gold Climbs as Oil and Treasury Yields Retreat, Easing Near-Term Inflation Concerns

Bullion recovers most losses after Fed rate hike as ETF demand and lower energy prices support momentum

By Priya Menon
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Gold prices rose on Friday as declines in oil and Treasury yields eased inflation pressures following a Federal Reserve rate increase. The rally has positioned bullion to end a choppy week higher, supported by inflows into gold-backed ETFs and renewed technical momentum, even as the prospect of additional Fed hikes remains a constraint.

Gold Climbs as Oil and Treasury Yields Retreat, Easing Near-Term Inflation Concerns
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Key Points

  • Gold rose as lower oil prices and falling Treasury yields reduced near-term inflation pressure; XAU/USD was trading at $4,361.31 an ounce at 21:28 ET (01:28 GMT).
  • The Fed's unanimous 25 basis point rate increase on Wednesday remains a headwind, with markets pricing at least one more hike this year and possibly additional hikes in 2027 following comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
  • Gold-backed ETFs recorded significant inflows and ANZ reported eight consecutive sessions of increased holdings, while gold moved above its 100-day moving average; markets impacted include commodities, fixed income, and ETF investment flows.

Gold advanced on Friday after oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields eased, relieving some market pressure on inflation expectations in the wake of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase earlier this week.


At 21:28 ET (01:28 GMT), spot gold (XAU/USD) was trading up 0.5% at $4,361.31 an ounce, while Gold Futures were largely unchanged at $4,399.87. Silver (XAG/USD) rose 1% to $65.88 an ounce and platinum (XPT/USD) gained 1% to $1,790.41. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 100.22.

The uptick in precious metals follows a near 2% gain on Thursday, which helped bullion regain much of the ground lost over the previous three sessions. That reversal occurred after Treasury yields fell across maturities, retracing some of the spike that followed the Fed's unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, and the easing in oil prices has taken some heat off immediate inflation concerns. Oil fell for a third consecutive day as expectations diminished for sustained supply disruptions in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia indicated it expected to restore flows through a key pipeline within days, and some tankers continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz.


Despite the recent rebound, the market remains attentive to the path of monetary policy. Comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have moved market expectations toward at least one more rate increase this year and the possibility of up to two additional hikes in 2027, a factor that presents an ongoing headwind to bullion given tighter policy generally weighs on non-yielding assets.

Technical and investor positioning have lent support to the rally. Thursday's gains pushed gold back above its 100-day moving average, a commonly used indicator of market momentum. Still, bullion is trading nearly 20% below levels recorded before the Iran war began in late February.

Investor flows into gold instruments have strengthened alongside price action. Gold-backed ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have seen billions of dollars in inflows, and ANZ reported that holdings in those funds increased for eight straight sessions. ANZ analysts also noted robust demand for options on some of the largest gold-backed ETFs, signaling active investor positioning despite expectations for tighter monetary policy.


For now, the combination of lower energy prices and softer Treasury yields has given gold room to recover after the Fed decision. The longer-term outlook remains subject to shifts in central bank guidance and macro drivers, while investor appetite for ETF exposure and options activity continues to shape near-term market dynamics.

Risks

  • Further interest rate increases - market expectations for at least one more Fed hike this year and additional hikes in 2027 could restrain demand for non-yielding assets like gold; this affects bond and precious metals markets.
  • Shifts in energy supply dynamics - an improvement in the outlook for Middle East supply disruptions has eased oil prices, but any reversal could renew inflation concerns and pressure bullion; this impacts energy and commodities sectors.
  • Policy and macro uncertainty - changes in Treasury yields and central bank communications could rapidly alter market momentum for gold and related ETFs, influencing investor allocations across commodities and fixed income.

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