Overview
Russian oil refining activity has fallen to levels not seen in more than two decades, driven by damage sustained in a series of drone strikes, according to commodities data firm Kpler on Tuesday. The firm reports that crude runs at Russian refineries have declined to approximately 3.80 million barrels per day - the lowest tally in 21 years.
Extent of impact
Kpler estimates that, in July, around 4.3 million barrels per day of refining capacity is either offline for repairs or has been directly attacked. That downtime and attacked capacity represents roughly 58% of Russia's total refining capacity, the firm says, meaning an estimated 1.5 million to 2.0 million barrels per day of processing capability is effectively out of service as of mid-July.
Nature of damage
The strikes, Kpler notes, have affected at least 25 refineries since August 2025. Damage has been recorded across crude distillation units and secondary processing units, including fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs), hydrocrackers, catalytic reformers and hydrotreaters. The attacks have also hit storage tanks, pipelines and other logistics infrastructure needed to run refineries reliably.
Near-term outlook
Kpler projects a modest recovery in runs to about 4.3 million barrels per day in August as maintenance activity eases. The firm cautions, however, that the continuation of drone strikes presents downside risk to that forecast and could limit or reverse any near-term improvement.
Summary
Russian crude processing has slumped to roughly 3.80 million barrels per day - its lowest level in 21 years - with an estimated 4.3 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline or attacked. Around 58% of refining capacity is affected, translating to an effective loss of 1.5-2.0 million barrels per day of processing as of mid-July. Kpler expects limited recovery into August but flags ongoing strikes as a downside risk.
Key points
- Current runs near 3.80 million barrels per day - the lowest in 21 years, per Kpler.
- Approximately 4.3 million barrels per day of refinery capacity is offline or attacked in July, equal to roughly 58% of Russia's refining capacity.
- Kpler forecasts a modest rebound to about 4.3 million barrels per day in August if maintenance eases, but continued drone strikes could impede recovery.
Risks and uncertainties
- Renewed or continued drone strikes - could further reduce refining throughput and delay recovery; impacts oil processing and fuel supply chains.
- Extent and duration of repairs - ongoing repair timelines are uncertain and constrain near-term operations; affects refining sector and downstream logistics.
The information above is based on Kpler's reporting and projections as cited by the firm on Tuesday. The situation is subject to change depending on operational repairs and future attacks.