Ship-tracking information compiled by Bloomberg indicates that at least 16 tankers loaded in the Persian Gulf are due to deliver a total of 28 million barrels of crude oil to Europe across July and August. The group of vessels comprises 12 very large crude carriers - VLCCs - and four Suezmax tankers, according to the tracking dataset.
Vortexa data breaks down the volumes by origin: Iraqi crude represents 16 million barrels of the total, the United Arab Emirates accounts for 8 million barrels, and Kuwait and Oman each contribute 2 million barrels. Those figures reflect the combined cargoes on the vessels identified as heading to European destinations.
Operationally, four VLCCs discharged roughly half of their loaded volumes into the Sumed pipeline at Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea. After that offload, three of those VLCCs continued onward to Europe without taking on additional cargo. The oil left in the Sumed pipeline is expected to be collected by other tankers for onward delivery to refineries in Europe.
Not all tankers from the Persian Gulf are bound for Europe. Separate movements include three VLCCs that are scheduled to head to the United States after loading in the Gulf. In addition, one Suezmax tanker from the identified set is travelling to South America.
The ship-tracking snapshot captures vessel intentions and routing decisions for a compact window of summer shipments. The data supplies a contemporaneous view of how crude flows from Gulf producers are being allocated across transatlantic and intercontinental refinery markets during July and August.
Key points
- At least 16 tankers carrying 28 million barrels from the Persian Gulf are expected in Europe during July and August - the fleet includes 12 VLCCs and four Suezmaxes.
- Volume sources: Iraq 16 million barrels, UAE 8 million barrels, Kuwait 2 million barrels, Oman 2 million barrels - data from Vortexa.
- Four VLCCs offloaded part of their cargo into the Sumed pipeline at Ain Sokhna; three of those then proceeded to Europe without reloading. Additional Gulf-loaded tankers are bound for the US and South America.
Risks and uncertainties
- Timing and execution risk - the arrivals are projections for July and August, and actual delivery schedules could change.
- Pipeline pickup uncertainty - while the crude left in the Sumed pipeline is expected to be lifted by other tankers, the extent and timing of those pickups are not guaranteed.
- Routing variability - with some vessels diverting to the United States and South America, allocations to European refineries may shift depending on operational decisions.
These movements underline near-term distribution choices for Persian Gulf barrels, with implications for refining intake and shipping logistics in Europe and beyond. Observers reliant on vessel-tracking datasets will continue monitoring whether these planned arrivals and pipeline transfers proceed as scheduled.