Stock Markets April 19, 2026 09:38 PM

Gulf Conflict Pressures Australian and New Zealand Corporates Across Airlines, Banks and Logistics

Higher fuel and freight costs, supply-chain disruptions and volatile markets cut into earnings forecasts and force operational adjustments across sectors

By Derek Hwang
Gulf Conflict Pressures Australian and New Zealand Corporates Across Airlines, Banks and Logistics

Companies across Australia and New Zealand are reporting financial strain linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Rising jet fuel and freight costs, disrupted shipping routes and elevated energy-market volatility have prompted profit warnings, suspended guidance, cost pass-throughs and increased credit provisioning among major airlines, banks, logistics and industrial firms.

Key Points

  • Airlines have raised fares, reduced capacity and deferred share buybacks as jet fuel costs rise and routes are disrupted.
  • Logistics, packaging and construction materials firms report higher costs, production stoppages and profit forecasts cuts, with some passing price increases to customers.
  • Banks have increased credit provisioning and cited margin pressures tied to energy-market shocks and interest-rate volatility.

Firms in Australia and New Zealand are increasingly reporting tangible business impacts attributable to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with higher fuel and freight prices, disrupted shipping lanes and broader market volatility hitting corporate earnings, activity and confidence.

Executives and boards from a cross-section of industries have flagged effects ranging from suspended guidance and trimmed profit forecasts to higher provisioning and production stoppages. Below is a company-by-company account of the impacts disclosed by firms operating in the region.


Airlines and airports

  • Air New Zealand - The national carrier suspended its full-year earnings outlook in early March and said it had increased fares in response to volatility in jet fuel markets. On April 7 the airline announced a reduction of flights through May and June, a move that will affect around 4% of scheduled flights and roughly 1% of total passengers.

  • Qantas Airways - Qantas raised its fuel cost outlook for the second half of the year by as much as A$800 million and has not launched a planned share buyback of A$150 million, citing sharply higher and volatile jet fuel prices. To blunt the cost pressure, the carrier is increasing fares, shifting capacity toward stronger long-haul routes such as Paris and Rome where demand remains firm, and reducing domestic capacity by about 5 percentage points in the June quarter.

  • Virgin Australia - The carrier anticipates an increase in fuel costs of approximately A$30 million to A$40 million for the second half of fiscal 2026. In mid-March the airline said it was adjusting fares as sector-wide rising costs have been "exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East."

  • Auckland International Airport - The operator reported disruptions on flights from Auckland to the Middle East. Those routes experienced an 81% decline in passenger numbers and a 73% reduction in seat capacity in March compared with the prior year.


Food, dairy and consumer goods

  • a2 Milk - The New Zealand infant formula maker cut its fiscal 2026 profit outlook, attributing the revision to higher freight costs stemming from the conflict and temporary supply-chain disruptions that have affected availability of its China-label product in its largest market.

  • Fonterra - The dairy cooperative said the conflict is affecting its supply chain and could increase inventory levels and costs in the second half of the year, while contributing to volatility in global commodity prices.


Packaging, waste management and construction materials

  • Orora - The packaging company trimmed its annual earnings forecast in relation to its French unit Saverglass, cancelled its share buyback programme and said it has halted bottle production at its glass facility in Ras al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates because of closed shipping routes.

  • Cleanaway Waste Management - Cleanaway reduced its full-year operating earnings forecast by approximately A$20 million, citing higher costs, lower activity and timing differences in cost recovery as the main drivers.

  • Fletcher Building - The construction materials maker said it has indirect exposure to the conflict through supply chains, freight routes and energy costs, and from broader economic effects on construction demand across Australasia. It expects to pass costs onto customers: plastics will face immediate price increases of up to 36%, while other divisions will see increases of 1% to 5%.


Logistics, engineering and industrial services

  • Qube Holdings - Qube estimated an EBITA impact of about A$10 million to A$20 million for fiscal 2026 due to the conflict. The logistics firm also said recent events could accelerate investment in new alternative energy projects, which it identified as potentially advantageous for the business.

  • Worley - The engineering group said the adverse impact on its underlying EBITA for fiscal 2026 is estimated at A$30 million to A$40 million. Worley warned it is unlikely to deliver growth in underlying EBITA in fiscal 2026, while it continues to target higher growth in aggregated revenue than in fiscal 2025.


Banks

  • National Australia Bank (NAB) - NAB said it expects to incur credit impairment charges of A$706 million in the first half of fiscal 2026. The bank indicated that second-quarter interest-rate volatility, a weaker New Zealand dollar and the increased provisioning would reduce the group’s common equity tier 1 capital ratio by about 20 basis points as of March 31. NAB also plans to apply a 1.5% discount to its first-half dividend reinvestment plan to raise up to A$1.8 billion to bolster the balance sheet.

  • Westpac - Australia’s second-largest bank by assets said energy-market shocks from the conflict have emerged as profit pressures during the first half of the financial year ended March 31, prompting higher credit provisions. Westpac noted a weaker net interest margin in its treasury and markets division amid interest-rate volatility it linked to the conflict, and said its provisioning for potential bad debt is now at its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.


Summary of effects

The disclosures show a pattern across sectors: airlines are raising fares, cutting capacity and postponing buybacks as jet fuel costs climb; logistics and packaging firms face higher freight and shipping disruptions that reduce earnings; industrial and construction companies are passing through higher input costs; and banks are increasing provisions as market volatility and energy shocks weigh on margins and credit quality. Several firms have quantified expected earnings or provisioning hits, and others have suspended guidance while assessing ongoing volatility.

Exchange rate used in company disclosures: $1 = 1.3996 Australian dollars.

Risks

  • Prolonged volatility in jet fuel and freight markets could further depress airline and logistics profitability, affecting the transport and tourism sectors.
  • Continued disruption to shipping routes and supply chains may push up inventory and input costs for manufacturers and construction, impacting margins across industrial and building materials sectors.
  • Sustained market volatility and energy shocks could erode bank net interest margins and raise credit impairments, posing risks to banking sector earnings and capital ratios.

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