Goldman Sachs projects that 2026 will see approximately 100 initial public offerings (IPOs) raising a combined $160 billion, according to the firm's recent client note. That estimate represents a downward adjustment in deal count from an earlier forecast, even as the projected dollar volume remains unchanged.
The bank had previously assumed roughly 120 IPOs totaling $160 billion for 2026. Goldman’s internal IPO barometer is currently pointing toward 136 potential launches, but analysts warn that geopolitical tensions and bouts of equity-market volatility are likely to weigh on issuance, translating into fewer actual listings.
Goldman analyst Ben Snider highlights that, on average, 2026 listings have delivered a 19% jump on their first trading day, which aligns with the historical median for initial returns. That pattern - outsized first-day rallies followed by subpar performance in the months after listing - has continued to appear in recent activity.
Specifically, over the first three weeks of the second quarter, the eight IPOs that priced saw an average first-day return of 27%. That figure is above both the historical median and the average first-day return for the first quarter of the year, which was 16%.
Goldman characterizes the IPO pipeline as robust, with company management teams expressing cautious optimism and the firm’s IPO barometer providing generally supportive signals for issuance. Despite those positive indicators, the bank identifies several headwinds that could limit the pace of new listings.
One notable risk is the concentration of the IPO backlog in Software, which accounted for roughly 20% of the 2025 backlog. While several large private companies are expected to go public within the broader timeframe, Goldman cautions that the 2026 forecast is sensitive to the timing and scale of these sizable deals.
Snider notes that 53 companies have filed to go public year-to-date, which is more than double the number during the comparable period last year. He further observes that although the large Software weight in the backlog represents a downside risk, none of the 19 companies that filed for IPOs since early April have been Software firms.
Among the potential megadeals highlighted for 2026 is the planned public debut of SpaceX, which, after a merger with the artificial intelligence startup xAI, may carry a combined market valuation above $1.75 trillion. Under that structure, the rocket business is valued at about $1 trillion and the developer of the Grok chatbot at roughly $250 billion. At an analyst day held on April 21, SpaceX said it expects its trading debut in late June and is targeting up to $75 billion in proceeds, which would make it the largest IPO on record.
Goldman’s note reiterates that the strongest-performing IPOs historically and in recent times have tended to be companies with a relatively short path to profitability. That characteristic remains an important consideration for investors assessing near-term performance expectations of newly listed firms.
The note also includes marketing information on a retail-facing research product that combines institutional data with AI-driven insights, presented as a tool to help investors identify attractive opportunities. That product description reflects the firm’s view that improved data and analysis can aid decision-making, without guaranteeing investment success.
Contextual takeaways
- Goldman reduced its projected number of 2026 IPOs from 120 to 100 while keeping the aggregate dollar target at $160 billion.
- Recent listings have shown strong immediate price moves, but Goldman flags a pattern of weaker returns in the months following initial rallies.
- Concentration in Software and the uncertain timing of large transactions, including a potential SpaceX offering, create downside risk for full-year issuance totals.