World November 9, 2026 02:01 AM

UAE Official Signals Extended Regional Uncertainty as US-Iran Settlement Remains Unlikely

Anwar Gargash urges bolstered defence, steady diplomacy and international partnerships as the Gulf braces for a prolonged period of instability

By Sofia Navarro
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Senior Emirati diplomat Anwar Gargash warned on Nov 9 in Abu Dhabi that the region is likely to face a lengthy phase of uncertainty and that a comprehensive political settlement between the United States and Iran to end the more than eight-month war appears difficult. He called for strengthened defence capabilities, credible deterrence and continued diplomatic engagement with Iran and other partners while acknowledging some near-term interactions may be transactional by necessity.

UAE Official Signals Extended Regional Uncertainty as US-Iran Settlement Remains Unlikely
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Key Points

  • Senior Emirati diplomat Anwar Gargash warned the region should prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty, stating a comprehensive US-Iran settlement appears difficult.
  • Gargash urged investment in defensive capabilities, credible deterrence and stronger international security partnerships, highlighting the UAE's defence cooperation with Washington.
  • The UAE plans sustained diplomatic engagement with Iran and other regional and international partners, acknowledging some near-term interactions may be transactional by necessity.
  • Sectors impacted: defence and security cooperation frameworks, diplomatic and international relations, and countries providing support and solidarity (France, Israel, Greece, Egypt, India).

ABU DHABI, Nov 9 - Senior Emirati official Anwar Gargash told delegates at a geopolitical conference in the UAE capital that the region should prepare for an extended period in which neither a decisive settlement nor a stable regional order can be assumed.

Addressing the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, Gargash said a comprehensive political settlement between the United States and Iran to bring an end to the more than eight-month war appeared difficult to achieve. He warned that the fallout from the conflict could linger for an extended period.

"We should ... prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted," Gargash said.

Gargash further observed that the consequences of the US war with Iran "may persist for a long time," and argued that this reality obliges the United Arab Emirates to invest in defensive capabilities, sustain credible deterrence and cultivate stronger international security partners.

He reiterated the UAE's position on the conflict, saying the country opposed the US war with Iran from the outset. Gargash, who serves as the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, referenced prior remarks he made in Manama on November 1, when he said the UAE was "braced for the worst" amid regional fears that the US might strike Iran and that Tehran could retaliate by targeting Gulf states, as it had earlier this year.

Gargash noted the need for sustained diplomatic engagement with Iran and with other regional and international partners if the region is to navigate an extended period of uncertainty. He cautioned that in the near term some of that engagement "might be transactional by necessity," though he did not elaborate on what specific transactional measures this could involve.

The senior official also underscored the importance of the UAE's defence and security cooperation with Washington, saying the war had demonstrated the value of that partnership. He publicly thanked a number of countries for their support and solidarity, naming France, Israel, Greece, Egypt and India.

Gargash said some of those countries provided help in defending the UAE against Iranian attacks earlier this year. His remarks came amid broader commentary on the limited prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough: on Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not believe a breakthrough on diplomatic efforts to end the war was imminent.

The message from the UAE's diplomatic adviser was twofold: first, that the region should not expect an early, decisive political resolution to the conflict between the US and Iran; and second, that the UAE must bolster its defence posture while maintaining active diplomatic channels with Iran and other partners, even if some interactions are pragmatic or transactional.

Speaking at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, Gargash presented the stance of the UAE leadership as one that balances readiness and deterrence with continued engagement, reflecting concern that the geopolitical environment will remain unsettled for the foreseeable future.

Risks

  • Prolonged regional uncertainty - potential to extend demand for defence and security readiness in the UAE and allied countries, affecting defence procurement and military cooperation.
  • Limited prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough - continued instability may strain diplomatic channels and require more resource-intensive engagement with regional and international partners.
  • Risk of further military escalation or retaliatory attacks - the need for credible deterrence and defensive investments could continue to shape government budgets and international security commitments.

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