Wall Street is preparing for a wave of headline-grabbing public offerings led by Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SpaceX is scheduled to list on June 12 with plans to raise up to $80 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation, and it will be followed by planned multi-trillion-dollar listings from Anthropic and OpenAI.
In a recent report, Yardeni Research highlights growing concerns that this cohort - labeled the "AI-3" - could dominate market attention and investor allocations, effectively "sucking the oxygen out of the rest of the equity market." At the same time, the firm argues that fears of a systemic liquidity drain are overblown because the combined headline valuations of about $5 trillion do not translate into equivalent amounts of new capital.
Yardeni points out that the actual capital expected to be raised across these deals is roughly $200 billion, a figure it considers manageable relative to the broader market. To facilitate fundraising, Wall Street bankers plan to open the offerings to retail investors, a move Yardeni expects will be met with strong demand given substantial retail liquidity.
The research note also places the planned offerings in context with the overall size of U.S. equity markets. Yardeni emphasizes that the combined market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 and the S&P 500 stands at well over $130 trillion, and that the AI-3 are unlikely to significantly swell those indexes at the outset because their initial public free floats will be very small.
SpaceX, for example, is floating only about 4.3% of its shares. Yardeni expects Anthropic and OpenAI to provide similarly modest public floats. That structure contrasts sharply with the group often called the Magnificent Seven, which together hold roughly $24 trillion in market capitalization and feature high public ownership levels, ranging between 81% and 98%.
Index methodology and timing have already begun to shift in response to these listings. Nasdaq reduced its inclusion window to 15 days effective May 1 to adapt to these large-cap introductions. By contrast, S&P Dow Jones Indices said last week it would not modify its rules to make S&P 500 inclusion easier for these mega-cap entrants.
Even without formal rule changes, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that passive tracking funds will still be required to absorb a substantial share of SpaceX's limited public float. Yardeni frames this as a tense market dynamic in which forced index buying could collide with an unusually tight supply of tradable shares.
Beyond market structure implications, Yardeni underscores risks tied to the firms' underlying financial profiles. The analysts note that the combined projected losses for the AI-3 in 2025 exceed $25 billion, and that a significant portion of their valuations depends on an unproven enterprise AI opportunity estimated at $22.7 trillion.
"There has been no proof of concept for launching data centers into space," Yardeni adds when assessing SpaceX's longer-term business assertions.
The report therefore portrays a scenario with strong retail and passive demand focused on a very limited supply of newly public shares, set against financial metrics and market assumptions that Yardeni views as risky. While the firm does not view the situation as a broad liquidity problem for markets overall, it highlights concentrated pressures for index trackers, retail investors and the specific equities involved.
Summary: Upcoming mega-IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are set to draw intense investor interest. Yardeni Research expects substantial retail participation and notes that while headline valuations may reach about $5 trillion, the actual capital to be raised is near $200 billion. Tiny initial free floats - SpaceX at roughly 4.3% - could drive forced buying from index funds despite the broader market's enormous scale.