Key takeaways
- Aggregate card balances grew 3.0% year-over-year in July, down from 3.7% in June.
- Delinquency rates rose 6 basis points month-over-month on average; year-over-year delinquencies fell 22 basis points.
- Net charge-off rates fell 8 basis points month-over-month on average and declined 46 basis points year-over-year.
Wolfe Research released its July 2026 monthly credit and loan growth report covering four large U.S. card issuers: American Express (AXP), Bread Financial Holdings (BFH), Capital One (COF) and Synchrony Financial (SYF). The firm noted that overall balance growth across these card portfolios slowed to a 3.0% year-over-year rate in July, down from 3.7% in June. Wolfe flagged the timing of Prime Day as a possible factor in the month-to-month deceleration.
Issuer-level balance performance
American Express' U.S. Consumer Services balances rose 5.9% year-over-year in July, a decline from the 7.6% pace reported in June and below the third-quarter consensus estimate of 7.7% on the Street. Capital One's Domestic Card balances increased 1.9% year-over-year compared with 2.6% in June and a third-quarter Street estimate of 3.5%. Synchrony Financial recorded 2.3% year-over-year balance growth, slightly under June's 2.4% and below the Street third-quarter estimate of 3.8%. Bread Financial's balances grew 5.4% year-over-year, up from 4.6% in April but short of the 5.8% third-quarter Street estimate.
Month-over-month movements
On a month-to-month basis, American Express saw balances decline 0.6% in July. Capital One's balances were flat month-over-month. Synchrony and Bread each posted modest monthly increases of 0.4%. Wolfe noted that this mixed monthly performance fell short of the historical monthly trend, which averages a 0.5% increase.
Delinquency trends
Delinquency rates for the group increased on average by 6 basis points versus the prior month, which Wolfe described as performing slightly better than normal seasonal patterns for the fourth consecutive month. By issuer, American Express' U.S. Consumer Services delinquency rate was unchanged at 1.10%. Capital One's delinquency rate rose 9 basis points to 3.48%. Synchrony Financial's delinquency rate increased 4 basis points to 4.20%. Bread Financial's delinquency rate moved up 10 basis points to 5.35%.
Compared with a year earlier, delinquency rates for the group were down 22 basis points, marking the 21st straight month of year-over-year declines for this set of issuers.
Net charge-off behavior
Net charge-off rates fell on average by 8 basis points month-over-month. American Express saw a 30 basis point increase in net charge-offs to 1.70%. Capital One's net charge-off rate declined 25 basis points to 4.12%. Synchrony Financial's net charge-offs dropped 30 basis points to 4.90%. Bread Financial's net charge-off rate declined 8 basis points to 6.80%.
On a year-over-year basis, net charge-off rates were lower by 46 basis points across the group. American Express' net charge-offs fell 10 basis points year-over-year. Capital One's net charge-offs decreased 71 basis points year-over-year. Synchrony saw a 20 basis point year-over-year decline and Bread Financial recorded an 83 basis point year-over-year reduction.
Auto lending at Capital One
Capital One's auto lending portfolio continued to grow, with balances up 12.1% year-over-year in July, a slight acceleration from June's 11.6% and ahead of the third-quarter Street expectation of roughly 10% growth. Within auto, delinquencies were down 66 basis points year-over-year and net charge-offs fell 11 basis points year-over-year, according to Wolfe's data.
Bottom line
Wolfe Research's July snapshot shows an overall slowdown in card balance growth relative to June, modest month-over-month pressure in delinquencies, but a decline in net charge-offs on both a monthly and annual basis for the aggregated group. Variations across issuers highlight differing credit and growth dynamics within consumer credit and specialty finance portfolios.