Barclays has raised its recommendation on Schott Pharma to Overweight, arguing the pharmaceutical packaging specialist is entering a phase of renewed growth after roughly three years of downward revisions to earnings. The brokerage's assessment sent Schott's stock higher by more than 4% in early trading in Frankfurt.
In its note, Barclays highlighted several operational and market developments it believes underpin an earnings recovery. Key among them are recently renegotiated contracts, signs of stronger polymer demand, and a ramp in ready-to-use and specialty vial volumes. Based on these factors, the broker now models 2028 earnings per share about 6% above current consensus estimates.
Analysts at Barclays trace the prior stretch of consensus downgrades since Schott Pharma's 2023 listing to a combination of inventory destocking, excess capacity within the vials market, softer orders for glass pre-filled syringes (PFS), and a slowdown in polymer consumption. The brokerage now regards these headwinds as largely behind the company.
"Today, we see these issues as largely in the rear-view mirror, with a significant renegotiated contract in PFS, additional polymer use cases making up for the mRNA shortfall, and utilisation of its #1 position in vials for strong growth in ready-to-use and speciality vials," Barclays analysts said.
Market reaction has been notable: Schott's shares are up about 45% year-to-date, while the SXDP index has fallen roughly 2% over the same period. Barclays attributed part of that outperformance to a peer-group rerating and an upward revision to the company's fiscal 2026 guidance. The broker projects revenue growth to accelerate from 5.8% in fiscal 2026 to 8.6% by fiscal 2030, and positions Schott roughly 3% above Bloomberg consensus on EBITDA and 6% above on EPS for fiscal 2030.
Barclays also pointed to favorable end-market dynamics supporting the outlook. Drawing on three decades of FDA approvals, the broker noted an accelerating adoption of injectable therapies, particularly pre-filled syringes used in biologics and biosimilars. The bank expects manufacturers of glass primary packaging to be among the beneficiaries of GLP-1 therapy demand and forecasts the primary packaging market to expand at a 7% compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2030.
Despite the upgrade, Barclays flagged customer concentration as a principal risk to the investment case. One customer in the GLP-1 segment now represents roughly 10% of group revenue, leaving Schott exposed to shifts in that buyer's product strategy. Analysts also noted that Eli Lilly's February 2026 FDA approval to market Zepbound in a pen-injector rather than an auto-injector could reduce demand for higher-margin glass pre-filled syringes. Schott, however, has reported no observable change in order behaviour to date.
For investors and market observers tracking pharmaceutical packaging and injectable drug formats, Barclays' upgrade signals a shift in expectations from contraction to growth, based on contract remediation and improving polymer markets. The outlook is contingent on continued demand for ready-to-use and specialty vials and on order stability from major customers.