Stock Markets August 14, 2026 12:12 PM

Bernstein: China Online Beauty Sales Weaken Significantly in July

Market-wide GMV falls while select global brands post gains and market share shifts

By Caleb Monroe
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Bernstein data show China’s online beauty gross merchandise value fell 13.2% in July, with tracked beauty companies declining 3.8% in GMV. July typically contributes about 3.5% of annual sales. Several multinational brands posted month-over-month and year-over-year gains, producing shifts in market share despite the broad market contraction.

Bernstein: China Online Beauty Sales Weaken Significantly in July
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Key Points

  • China online beauty GMV fell 13.2% in July, with tracked companies down 3.8% - impact on e-commerce and cosmetics retail sectors.
  • L'Oreal, Este9e Lauder and LVMH each grew GMV and expanded market share, reflecting brand-level resilience within a weak month - impacts investor sentiment in consumer luxury and prestige beauty.
  • Mass-market players saw mixed outcomes: P&G Beauty and Unilever BPC reported declines in GMV, while select Unilever and Beiersdorf brands recorded double-digit growth - implications for mass-market retail and household personal care categories.

Bernstein’s July data indicate a notable slowdown in China’s online beauty market, with gross merchandise value down 13.2% month-over-month. Companies followed in Bernstein’s coverage fared better than the overall market, registering a combined GMV decline of 3.8% in July. Bernstein estimates that July accounts for roughly 3.5% of an average year’s sales contribution.


Among global players, L'Oreal posted a 9% increase in GMV for the month and expanded its market share by 100 basis points. L'Oreal’s uplift was supported by stronger performance from several of its prestige and professional labels, specifically Ke9rastase, Lancf4me, SkinCeuticals and YSL. Within L'Oreal’s portfolio, CeraVe led the individual-brand growth, rising 52% in sales. Lancf4me and SkinCeuticals each achieved 37% sales growth, Helena Rubinstein grew 30% and Ke9rastase increased 29%.

Este9e Lauder also posted growth in July, with GMV up 5% and a market share gain of 103 basis points. The core Este9e Lauder brand contributed a 128 basis-point increase in share, while The Ordinary added 89 basis points and Le Labo contributed 45 basis points. Two of the fastest-growing lines within the company were Too Faced and The Ordinary, rising 177% and 120% year-over-year respectively. On a year-to-date basis, Este9e Lauder reported 24% GMV growth and a cumulative market share gain of 161 basis points.

LVMH achieved a 7% GMV increase in July and expanded market share by 121 basis points, an acceleration compared with a 54-basis-point gain over the prior three-month period. Within LVMH’s portfolio, Guerlain and Dior each registered month-over-month growth in the 20% to 25% range.

Beiersdorf saw 14% sales growth in July and added 61 basis points of market share. Several of its brands recorded substantial increases: Chantecaille grew 83%, La Prairie rose 59% and Coppertone was up 18%. Nivea moved back into positive territory with 13% growth and gained 103 basis points of share.

Henkel Beauty Care delivered an 18% GMV increase for July and added 46 basis points of market share. That result was supported by Shiseido Professional, which posted 37% sales growth, and Schwarzkopf, which rose 16%.

Not all legacy mass-market players expanded in July. P&G Beauty experienced a 27% decline in GMV but nevertheless recorded a modest market share gain of 20 basis points. Within P&G Beauty, Olay fell 46% and SK-II declined 13%.

Unilever BPC declined 18% in July while gaining 85 basis points of share. Brand-level performance within Unilever was mixed: Vaseline grew 34%, Dove increased 19% and Lux rose 16%, while AHC fell 60% and Pond's declined 29%.


The data show a market-wide contraction for the month alongside notable brand-level winners and losers, producing shifts in the competitive landscape even as overall online beauty GMV softened.

Risks

  • Ongoing month-to-month volatility in GMV could compress near-term revenue and margin forecasts for companies dependent on China online sales - relevant to e-commerce, beauty retailers and consumer packaged goods firms.
  • Concentration of growth among specific brands may increase competitive pressure and promotional intensity, potentially affecting unit economics and margins - risk for branded consumer products and platform profitability.
  • Disparate brand performance raises uncertainty about the sustainability of market share gains during a down month, complicating short-term forecasting for investors and category managers.

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