Berenberg has moved Sixt SE off the bench and onto its Buy list, upgrading the German car rental company a day after Sixt reported second-quarter results. The broker cited a stronger summer travel season across Europe, what it called a more targeted approach to managing residual-value risk in the U.S., and management's increased willingness to tighten investor communications.
Price targets and market reaction
Alongside the upgrade, Berenberg lifted its price target for Sixt's ordinary shares to 2.00 from 3.00, and increased the target for preference shares to 3 from 8. The market reaction was immediate: Sixt's stock rose roughly 3.9% on the day following the upgrade.
Broker history and recent share performance
Berenberg had been neutral on Sixt since May 2024. During that period ordinary shares declined by 10% while preference shares gained 3%. Over the same timeframe the shares underperformed the MDAX index, with ordinary and preference shares trailing by about 32% and 20%, respectively.
Analyst revisions to revenue and profit forecasts
Following Sixt's Q2 update, Berenberg raised its total revenue estimate for 2026 to 465 million. That figure sits above Bloomberg's consensus of 456 million and FactSet's 455 million by 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively. For 2027 Berenberg now forecasts 501 million in revenue, ahead of Bloomberg's 481 million and FactSet's 480 million by 4.2% and 4.4%. Its 2028 revenue projection of 541 million exceeds both Bloomberg and FactSet consensus figures of 508 million by 6.4%.
On earnings before tax (EBT), Berenberg's 2026 estimate is 461.7 million, above Bloomberg's 455.5 million by 1.4% and FactSet's 458.3 million by 0.8%. Its 2027 EBT forecast of 515.5 million tops Bloomberg's 499.1 million by 3.3% and FactSet's 4,502.7 million by 2.5%. For 2028 Berenberg projects 583.0 million, a 6.6% and 6.8% premium to Bloomberg's 546.8 million and FactSet's 545.8 million, respectively.
Projected earnings per share (EPS) were also nudged higher. Berenberg's 2026 EPS estimate is 7.02, above Bloomberg's 6.99 by 0.5% and FactSet's 6.94 by 1.1%. For 2027 it forecasts 7.84, topping Bloomberg's 7.69 by 1.9% and matching FactSet's 7.69 estimate by the same margin. The 2028 EPS projection of 8.86 exceeds Bloomberg's 8.41 by 5.3% and FactSet's 8.34 by 6.3%.
Second-quarter results driving the revision
Sixt reported Q2 revenue of 1,189.3 million, up 9.9% year on year. Regional performance included a 9.1% increase in Germany, a 13% rise across Europe, and a 6.3% gain in North America - or 7.6% on an FX-adjusted basis. EBT for the quarter reached 123 million, implying a 10.3% margin, which Sixt said hit its 2026 full-year margin target.
Berenberg described the reported profitability as encouraging, particularly in the context of Sixt's investment behind a U.S. marketing campaign.
Drivers behind forecast changes
Overall, Berenberg raised its average sales forecasts for 2026-2028 by 2% and lifted EBT expectations by 3%. The broker attributed the changes to improved assumptions for European demand, offset by lower forecasts for the Americas driven by weaker consumer sentiment and the costs associated with the U.S. marketing push.
Valuation and potential for re-rating
Berenberg noted that Sixt's shares are trading below their five-year average price-to-earnings multiples - 14.5 times for ordinary shares and 9.6 times for preference shares - suggesting room for a potential re-rating if the company continues to execute against the upgraded assumptions.
Investors and market participants will likely watch upcoming trading periods for confirmation of the stronger European demand and the effectiveness of Sixt's U.S. initiatives.