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Economy
Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
Articles
7,101 total articles
U.S. Export Controls Block Foreign Access to Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI Models
Anthropic has confirmed that the U.S. government issued an export control directive suspending access to its latest artificial intelligence models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for all foreign nationals. The restrictions apply regardless of location or employment status at the company, marking a significant escalation in national security oversight of adv…
World Cup Economic Impact: Goldman Sachs Projects Temporary Employment and Spending Surge in Host Cities
Goldman Sachs analysts project that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will create a noticeable but temporary economic boost across key U.S. metropolitan areas. The tournament is expected to influence employment figures, consumer spending, and inflation metrics primarily during the summer months of June and July.
Short-term Brazil sovereign yields tick up while long-end eases in Friday trade
Brazil's government bond market showed divergent moves on Friday afternoon, with the shortest maturity rising and longer-dated securities retreating. The one-year yield increased to 14.432% while 9- and 10-year yields moved lower. The yield curve narrowed and the Ibovespa index edged down, even as longer-term bond benchmarks have posted gains over …
Brazil rolls out subsidized motorcycle loans for app-based delivery workers
Brazil announced a subsidized loan program to help app-based delivery drivers buy motorcycles, offering lower-than-market annual interest rates differentiated by gender and backed by state lenders and a government credit-risk fund. The initiative targets domestically manufactured motorcycles, including electric models, and forms part of a broader s…
Bank of Italy Lowers 2027 Growth Estimate to 0.4%, Keeps 2026 View Unchanged
The Bank of Italy left its 2026 GDP growth projection at 0.6% but reduced its 2027 forecast to 0.4% from 0.5%, attributing the downgrade to weaker domestic demand pressured by rising energy prices and greater geopolitical uncertainty. The revised outlook was prepared as part of a coordinated exercise among euro zone central banks to support the Eur…
Bank of Italy Lowers 2027 GDP Forecast, Expects Near-Term Inflation Rise
The Bank of Italy forecasts GDP growth of 0.6% for this year and 0.4% in 2027, revising down its outlook for next year from an earlier 0.5% projection. The central bank warns that a surge in energy costs and elevated geopolitical uncertainty will dampen domestic demand, while projecting a sharper rise in inflation for the current year before a slow…
Gold’s surge stalls as Fed rate bets and a stronger dollar sap momentum
Gold's sharp advance since 2023 has lost momentum as expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy and a firmer dollar undermine the metal's recent gains. After touching a record $5,595 in January, spot gold has dropped roughly 25%, sinking to a six-month low as strong U.S. jobs data pushed rate-hike bets higher and sent prices below a key moving av…
Ukraine to Raise Soldier Pay, Expand Foreign Recruitment as Army Faces Shortfall
Ukraine announced a significant increase in military pay and plans to widen channels for recruiting foreign volunteers as it confronts personnel shortages after four years of war with Russia. The government has secured a large EU loan that enables a record defence budget this year, and officials said the first new payments could start in June.
U.S. Forces Conduct Nighttime Escorts of Oil Tankers Through Strait of Hormuz, Burgum Says
U.S. forces have been escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz during night operations after sea mines were removed, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said. The activity has permitted more than 20 ships to transit on some nights, moving substantial volumes of crude, and officials and private data firms report higher non-Iranian flows and mil…
Brazil inflation quickens in May, breaches central bank target range ahead of policy meeting
Brazil's annual consumer inflation rose to 4.72% in May, exceeding economists' forecasts and moving above the ceiling of the central bank's 3% target plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. Monthly inflation moderated to 0.58% but was still higher than expected. Food and beverages led the monthly rise while transport costs fell. The data arrives ahead…
Morocco Weighs Chinese Free Trade Offer as It Seeks to Broaden Export Markets
China has approached Morocco with a proposal for a free trade agreement, Morocco's Industry and Trade Minister said. The government is reviewing potential effects on export-focused manufacturing sectors, but has not opened formal negotiations. Any agreement would be subject to consultations with businesses and a consideration of Morocco's existing …
Goldman Sachs Says Markets Have Correctly Priced Potential Fed Rate Moves
A senior Goldman Sachs rates executive told the bank's podcast that bond markets have placed sensible odds on Federal Reserve rate rises as inflation tied to war pressures persists. Muhammad Qubbaj, co-head of US interest rate products, said elevated prices, economic resilience and corporate investment in artificial intelligence justify traders' po…
IMF to Free Nearly $700 Million to Ukraine Despite Missed Tax Measure
The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement to disburse nearly $700 million in aid to Ukraine, even though lawmakers did not pass a tax measure the lender sought. The arrangement, according to people familiar with the matter, can be announced imminently but still requires IMF board approval next month. The concession permits…
Poland’s MPC Sees Rate Cut as More Probable Than a Hike in 2026
A member of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council says a reduction in the central bank’s policy rate is now likelier than an increase, following a surprise slowing of inflation. While tightening remains a possibility, officials including the governor and other MPC members report diminished odds of raising the 3.75% benchmark given softer price pressures…
Morgan Stanley Says Fed Policy Risks Are Shifting Toward Firmer Inflation
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Gapen and Sam Coffin argue that the balance of risks in Federal Reserve policy is moving toward firmer inflation rather than the threat of weaker hiring. They point to recent spikes in energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, stronger-than-expected inflation readings in May, and a robust labor market as fac…
Bank of England to Keep Bank Rate at 3.75% in June; Poll Shows Mixed Views on Later Moves
A Reuters poll of 65 economists finds unanimous expectation that the Bank of England will hold its Bank Rate at 3.75% at its June 18 meeting. The median view in the survey is for rates to remain unchanged through the rest of the year, but nearly 40% of respondents still foresee at least one rate increase, and a small minority expect cuts. Energy-dr…
U.S. Equity Funds See First Weekly Outflow in Three Weeks as Rate Concerns Weigh
Net redemptions from U.S. equity funds totaled $12.57 billion in the week ending June 10, the first weekly outflow since May 20, driven by caution after recent labor and inflation data that pushed up rate-hike bets. Despite the overall pullback, technology funds attracted fresh money for a tenth consecutive week, while bond funds recorded their lar…
India's May CPI Edges Up to 3.93%, Staying Under RBI's 4% Target
India's consumer price index climbed to 3.93% year-on-year in May, below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target and beneath economists' expectations of 4.02%. Food inflation, which carries roughly 37% weight in the CPI basket, rose to 4.78% in May. The data followed a recent RBI decision to hold interest rates and comes amid government steps to shor…
Jakarta Moves Toward Country’s First Municipal Bond to Plug Budget Gap
Jakarta intends to issue Indonesia's first municipal bond within a year as the city seeks new revenue sources following substantial cuts to central government transfers. City officials are consulting the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank on structuring the securities, with proceeds earmarked for infrastructure projects currently under devel…
ECB’s Path Narrowed to One More Hike, UBS Says, Leaving Markets Unsure
UBS expects the European Central Bank to deliver one additional interest rate increase and then pause its tightening cycle, arguing that slowing growth will constrain further hikes despite markets pricing a more aggressive path. The bank highlighted the ECB’s updated staff forecasts showing higher headline and core inflation for 2026 and noted risi…
Hedge Funds Reduced Exposure to Large U.S. Tech Names Ahead of SpaceX Listing, JPMorgan Says
Hedge funds trimmed positions in the largest U.S. technology stocks and in some cases took on bearish bets in the days before SpaceX's planned initial public offering, according to a JPMorgan note released late Thursday. The group of stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven" - Nvidia, Apple, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft - fell fro…
May bank lending underwhelms as property slump and weak household demand curb credit growth
China's banks extended 520 billion yuan in new yuan loans in May, a recovery from April's monthly contraction but below analyst forecasts. Ongoing weakness in the property sector and subdued household borrowing weighed on overall loan demand, while broad monetary aggregates and total social financing showed only modest change from April.
Italy Developing Institutional Inflation-Linked Bond to Tap Rising Demand, Debt Chief Says
Italy's Treasury is considering a new bond exclusively for institutional investors that would be linked to domestic inflation and modelled on its euro zone-linked BTPs. The instrument, which could be issued next year depending on market conditions, is part of a broader strategy to expand and diversify the investor base while meeting sizeable fundin…
Bank of Japan Signals Possible Pause in Bond Purchase Reductions from April 2027
The Bank of Japan is considering suspending the scheduled reduction in its government bond purchases from April 2027, according to several people familiar with the matter. The decision is likely to be tightly contested among the BOJ's nine-member board as officials weigh market stability against a steady path to shrink the central bank's large bala…