Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,108 total articles
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he is not worried about inflation or the U.S. economy, but warned that stagflation remains a plausible worst-case scenario. He highlighted several inflationary pressures - including the Iran war, global re-militarization, infrastructure demands and fiscal deficits - and reiterated earlier concerns that conflict i…
A nine-week conflict in the Middle East has produced a stark split in U.S. bond markets: corporate credit spreads have tightened as if the geopolitical shock were negligible, while Treasury investors remain wary of higher inflation tied to oil prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy calculus ahead of its policy decision.
Poland's Ministry of Finance projects real GDP to expand by 3.6% in 2026 under its baseline scenario. The government adopted draft projections for 2026-2030 showing a narrowed general government deficit of 6.8% of GDP, while public debt-to-GDP is forecast to rise to 65.1% this year from 59.7% in 2025. The ministry identified the war in the Middle E…
Mediators based in Pakistan expect Iran to deliver an updated proposal in the coming days aimed at ending the war, after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an earlier draft. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi has returned to Tehran to consult with regime leaders, but progress is slowed by difficulties communicating with Supreme Leader Mojtaba…
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters in Dubrovnik that not every mine Iran reportedly laid in the Strait of Hormuz must be removed for commercial vessels to resume transit. He said creating a navigable pathway into and out of the strait could be achieved quickly, even as U.S. defense officials estimate that a full clearance could take …
Romania’s minority prime minister Ilie Bolojan is due to confront a no-confidence vote on May 5 after the Social Democrats joined the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) to submit a motion supported by more than 250 lawmakers. The move follows the Social Democrats' withdrawal last week from a pro-European four-way coalition and has …
A new survey-led report from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, produced with multilateral partners, finds that financial regulators are adopting AI at a far slower pace than the firms they oversee and frequently lack basic data on industry AI deployment. The research flags Anthropic's recently released Mythos as an example of next-gener…
Citigroup said foreign purchases of U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds have been strong for 15 straight months as global investors shift allocations toward technology, media and telecom (TMT) debt and bonds maturing beyond 15 years, while trimming exposure to financial-sector issuance. The bank highlighted country-level inflows, rising Hong Kong…
Brazil's mid-April consumer-price gauge showed an annual rise of 4.37%, below economists' forecasts, and a monthly increase of 0.89%. The softer-than-expected outcome reinforces market expectations that the central bank will trim its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% at its upcoming meeting as policymakers weigh inflation pressur…
Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel, said he will meet New York Governor Kathy Hochul to discuss the 'future direction' of the city after objections from the Miami-based firm to a mayoral proposal that used his name in a tax campaign targeting non-resident owners of New York City homes. Griffin made the comment during a panel at a Norges Bank I…
India's industrial production rose 4.1% year-on-year in March, the slowest increase in five months, as softer factory output and weak electricity generation weighed on overall growth. The March reading follows a revised 5.1% expansion in February and is the first monthly print after the outbreak of the Iran war triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes…
Federal judges in several states have dismissed Justice Department lawsuits seeking access to unredacted state voter rolls, a setback for the administration's campaign to broaden federal oversight of elections. The rulings, issued in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon and Rhode Island, raise constitutional, privacy and statutory questions …
Canada’s prolonged housing downturn is weighing on household consumption even as the domestic stock market hits record highs and boosts aggregate household net worth by more than C$1 trillion in 2025. With house prices down sharply from their 2022 peak, the traditional wealth effect from housing is failing to materialize, limiting broader economic …
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, has told lawmakers he wants robust debate at the central bank’s policymaking table. If confirmed, Warsh will step into a Federal Open Market Committee populated by officials divided over inflation risks, the health of the labor market, the proper role of the Fed’s balance sh…
Russia's central bank is weighing a rule that would require commercial banks to hold mandatory yuan reserves, aiming to ease shortages of the Chinese currency in the foreign-exchange market and to rein in outsized yuan lending. Governor Elvira Nabiullina flagged the proposal after yuan swap rates surged above 40% in March due to heavy lending and d…
China's central bank held a meeting in late April instructing some commercial banks to expand lending in April and to ensure outstanding loan balances post positive month-on-month growth, according to people familiar with the matter. The guidance, described by sources who declined to be named, reflects policymakers' concern about slowing credit exp…
Minutes from the Bank of Korea's latest policy meeting show the monetary policy board prefers to monitor developments linked to the Iran war before making further moves. The board left the policy rate at 2.50% on April 10, a decision anticipated by a poll of economists, and a strong majority of analysts expect no change through year-end despite con…
U.S. index futures were rangebound as markets digested reports that President Trump is unhappy with an Iranian offer to end the recent hostilities but delay nuclear talks. Corporate earnings take center stage with roughly a third of S&P 500 companies due to report, while OpenAI's internal revenue and user targets reportedly fell short, and BP logge…
Euro zone household inflation expectations climbed notably in March, according to the European Central Bank's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey. One-year expectations rose to 4.0% and three-year expectations to 3.0%, both exceeding the ECB's 2% medium-term goal. Five-year expectations edged only slightly higher to 2.4%. The survey also showed co…
A European Central Bank survey found that banks across the euro area tightened access to credit in the three months to March and anticipate additional constriction in the quarter to June. The ECB said the conflict in Iran, which began in late February, has pushed up energy prices and funding costs and was cited by banks as a driver of reduced risk …
Minutes from the Bank of Korea's previous monetary policy meeting show the board favors a cautious, wait-and-see approach, citing heightened uncertainty from the Iran war and the need to monitor its effects on growth and inflation. The board left the benchmark rate unchanged at 2.50% on April 10, a decision that matched economists' expectations. Po…
Ukraine has been urged to pass legislation imposing value-added tax on low-value parcels arriving from abroad to keep its $8.1 billion International Monetary Fund programme on track ahead of a June review. Lawmakers have so far withheld support for the draft, leaving Kyiv in negotiations with the IMF and raising the prospect of delayed or lost inte…
The Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged, even as three of nine policymakers advocated raising borrowing costs. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank had significantly raised its price outlook and is closely watching risks that a supply shock tied to the Middle East conflict could push inflation higher, potentially prompting a future rate …
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady at a guided overnight call rate of 0.75% while flagging a higher-than-expected path for inflation in fiscal 2026 and warning that surging oil and energy prices stemming from the Middle East war could slow growth and squeeze corporate profits. The decision was split, with three of nine board members favo…
The Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate at 0.75% after a two-day meeting, but three of nine board members dissented, preferring a rise to 1.0%. The split underscores concern about inflationary pressure linked to the Middle East conflict and has market participants watching Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting remarks for guidance on the tim…
