Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,195 total articles
Preliminary data from Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI show the economy contracted 0.8% in the first quarter versus the prior three months, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% decline and reversing the prior quarter's revised 0.9% expansion. All three major activity groups registered sequential contractions, while annual growth for the quarter w…
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected, while the statement highlighted mounting inflationary pressures and increased the likelihood of several rate increases this year, with markets viewing a June move as the probable first step. Euro currency and regional assets showed limited reaction, while money markets expect at l…
Initial filings for unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 189,000 for the week ending April 25, reflecting continued stability in the labor market. Continuing claims also declined, and surveys suggest consumers' employment perceptions shifted only modestly in April. Economists caution that shipping disru…
Following the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Morgan Stanley revised its U.S. policy outlook, now forecasting that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026 and implement two 25-basis-point cuts in January and March 2027, moving the terminal federal funds rate target to 3.0%–3.25%. The change reflects an F…
Statistics Canada reported a 0.2% increase in real GDP for February versus January, marking a fourth straight month of positive monthly growth. Strength in manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining and oil and gas extraction drove the advance. An advance estimate suggests monthly GDP would be unchanged in March and …
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey described the central bank’s recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged as an "active hold" rather than passive inaction. He said the move reflects current uncertainty but cautioned that a prolonged spike in energy prices could require a higher bank rate. Bailey also warned against waiting for clear seco…
The European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged and emphasized that the war in Iran is amplifying upside inflation pressures while weighing on economic activity. The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2%, kept borrowing rates at weekly and daily auctions unchanged, and said prolonged conflict and elevated energy prices increase risks to…
The European Central Bank left its key deposit rate unchanged at 2%, saying recent data largely match its prior inflation outlook while warning that the conflict in the Middle East has driven energy costs higher. Officials said the scale and duration of the resulting energy shock will determine its medium-term impact on inflation and growth, and th…
International Paper reported a first-quarter revenue shortfall and trimmed its full-year adjusted earnings forecast as higher interest rates and volatile costs weighed on shipments in North America and Europe. The company said it remains committed to separating its North American packaging business from EMEA operations, but warned that energy, fuel…
Japan's yen strengthened about 3% on Thursday after Tokyo officials issued strong language that intervention to support the currency may be imminent. The dollar fell to around 155.94 yen by 1250 GMT, marking the U.S. currency's biggest daily drop since December 2022. Market participants pointed to the timing of officials' comments and trading patte…
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that policymakers face a difficult judgement over whether and when to respond to second-round inflationary pressures stemming from higher energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. He emphasised that these second-round effects build more slowly than initial price shocks and that waiting for conclusi…
The Bank of England paused its tightening cycle, keeping the policy rate at 3.75%, while mapping out how the war in Iran could affect UK inflation. Governor Andrew Bailey said the ultimate path for policy will hinge on the magnitude and persistence of any energy price shock and its knock-on effects for consumer prices, particularly food. He warned …
The Japanese yen strengthened sharply after Tokyo issued firm warnings that intervention to support the currency might be imminent. Dollar/yen fell to 156.72, down more than 2% on the day, sparking debate among strategists about whether verbal signals alone or active intervention - possibly combined with short-covering and low liquidity - drove the…
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at its April meeting, presenting three alternative scenarios for how higher energy prices could affect inflation and output. Policymakers differed on the likely persistence and second-round effects of the shock from the Middle East conflict, with one memb…
Botswana's central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate from 3.5% to 5.5%, citing a global energy shock tied to the Iran war. Governor Lesego Moseki said the monetary policy committee expects inflation to breach the 3% to 6% target range in the second quarter and projected inflation to average 8.7% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027.
The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on Thursday after Tokyo officials, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, issued unusually strong warnings that intervention to support the currency could be forthcoming. The dollar fell about 2.1% to 156.985 yen at 1106 GMT, a move that market participants flagged as consistent with possible official buy…
Turkey's central bank said uncertainty about the inflation path has climbed materially because of volatile commodity prices and supply bottlenecks. The Monetary Policy Committee's April 22 summary said the bank is watching how broader developments and domestic energy costs transmit to inflation through the cost channel and activity, and noted leadi…
Facing heightened uncertainty from the Iran war, the Bank of England abandoned a single baseline projection in its April 2026 Monetary Policy Report and set out three scenario-based outlooks. The paths differ by assumed energy-price trajectories, household spending responses and the size of second-round inflation effects, producing a range of outco…
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to leave the Bank Rate at 3.75%, abandoning its usual single central forecast and instead outlining three scenarios for how the Iran war could affect inflation and growth. Under the most severe outcome, protracted high energy prices could push inflation to a 6.2% peak and keep it above the 2…
Markets had anticipated a more dovish Federal Reserve under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, but a divided policy vote, rising oil prices and stronger Treasury yields have erased near-term expectations for rate cuts. Futures markets now largely rule out reductions this year, with some participants even pricing a possible hike next year, while investors …
U.S. banks report little direct guidance from the administration on an anticipated executive order that would require collection of customers' citizenship or immigration status. Executives and compliance experts warn the move would demand extensive IT and operations changes, carry large compliance and legal risks, and could have outsized effects on…
The U.S. Department of Justice's recent move to reclassify FDA-approved cannabis medicines and state-regulated medical marijuana products to Schedule III has prompted drug developers to anticipate renewed private investment and greater access to public markets. Executives at multiple companies developing cannabis-derived therapies said the change s…
Emerging market stocks and currencies dipped as investors reacted to reports of potential new U.S. strikes on Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices. Despite the intraday weakness, major EM gauges were positioned for notable monthly gains after earlier improvements in risk appetite. Market participants also digested signals of a split Federal R…
U.S. stock index futures showed mixed movement as a sharp rise in oil prices revived inflation worries, counterbalancing broadly solid technology earnings. Brent crude climbed after reports of a planned U.S. military briefing on potential action related to Iran, while investors digested Federal Reserve commentary and awaited key economic releases.
A preliminary Eurostat flash estimate showed the euro zone's GDP expanded by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, below forecasts and the prior quarter's 0.2% pace. The result comes as surveys point to slipping business sentiment, softer services activity, falling profits, export challenges and tighter bank credit, while the region's heavy reliance …
